Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: So, precip is angled a bit better from SW to NE so far...way too early to make calls tho Never too early. You are chomping at the bit to say it. Your window is coming. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, eduggs said: I follow that same area for skiing purposes as well, but I don't fully agree with your analysis. The ICON, GFS, and CMC were clustered fairly close together for several days. Only the ECM showed a stronger primary SLP holding on and sending mixing into NVT and NNY. Yesterday the GFS shifted a bit towards the ECM, but the CMC stayed in the southeast (faster 2ndary development) camp. It's a bit difficult to judge since it changes every cycle, but I would say the ICON has adjusted similarly to the GFS. From NW to SE the order has been ECM, GFS, ICON, CMC... with the NAM now the furthest NW as we approach shorter ranges. I have not noticed the ICON having a "weak" bias relative to the other mid-range models. Certainly it has less of a tendency to amplify minor shortwaves than the NAM. But from what I've seen it's fairly middle of the road in its upper level synoptics and surface reflections. Regardless of its specific biases, it is slightly less accurate than the CMC and UK. It's one of the best mid-range models in the world, but clearly on the 2nd tier. Gfs is hard to judge because it jumped from being the furthest SE (other than Gem) to way NW then over corrected SE again and has been correcting back NW. icon was consistently SE. not as much as the furthest SE gfs runs but it never adjusted NW until recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 PV is more NW instead of previous run pressing further SE 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Never too early. You are chomping at the bit to say it. Your window is coming. Nah, not yet. Unlike others, I can't really tell or call anything yet. It's too early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Snow finger pointing at us at hr114 JB used to say that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Lgt snow starts hr 123 for DC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 mod snow 129 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Hurry the hell up already! I got a brewery I need to get to. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Here we go.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Better than 6z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 All we want is to know if it is going to be a FOLKS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looking like a cleaner phase to my old tired eyes. Eta: the stj sw isnt racing out ahead too far which is great news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Scraff said: Hurry the hell up already! I got a brewery I need to get to. I'll be at Cushwa at three if you want a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Heavier snows DC & S/E at hr 132, mod snow to blue ridge, still going at 135 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Here we go.... Eh. Not seeing the positivity that others are so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Heading out at 138. Don't know what the accums were like at 6z tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Looks like it'll end up decently offshore (though there's still snow from the initial overrunning). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, stormtracker said: Heading out at 138. Don't know what the accums were like at 6z tho Basically zero so this is better then nothing but hardly a “wow” for anyone here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Up top the block is stronger and pressing a bit more. Baby steps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z is an improvement NW of 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nothing at all imby. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I'll be at Cushwa at three if you want a beer. Heading up to 5th Company now in Perryville. Not sure I’ll be back until 4. Keep ya posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Basically zero so this is better then nothing but hardly a “wow” for anyone here Ah, 10-4. Ok, well this is better then, lol. I got 2-4 on my maps and 4-6 just SE? What's the pretty maps show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 About 96... the upper low isn't as amplified and isn't digging quite as far south...those things limit the top end potential here...also its late Feb not early January although we have an arctic airmass to work with so not sure that matters too much.... BUT...in terms of the storm type and evolution they are similar in other ways...with a STJ wave timing up with an arctic front above it and a TPV lobe breaking off and diving down behind the wave. If you look at the surfact map at 114 hours and compare it to the day before 1996 they look very similar. Not predicting the same outcome...just identifying similar storm progressions in the past. Models struggled with the phasing between the waves in that system also but that was 30 years ago so they should do better now you would think. That might mean catching on at 100 hours instead of 36 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The tpv never seems to make it east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3-5 type, moving in the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 CMC looks really good at 96 hours . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: The tpv never seems to make it east. That's was odd. Everything else seemed to make sense in progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Heisy said: CMC looks really good at 96 hours . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nothing at all imby. Lol The southern stream somehow escaped E because the N/S was almost too far W. I don’t really care about the GFS anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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