JenkinsJinkies Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: How about we get past the one on the 15th before setting the 20th in stone? Tomorrow is mostly a rainer anyway. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Nice height rises @108 in SE, let’s see if N/S can dive down in time . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Gotta love how the ICON has the southern stream in OK at the same time as the Gfs and Cmc have it in AZ. Only 1000 miles difference. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think the Icon is going to be a good hit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 what is an "acceptable solution"Over 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft. Or getting 3" near the base of the Catoctin's while the mixing bowl gets 6. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Nice height rises @108 in SE, let’s see if N/S can dive down in time . Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”. I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe This is kinda where I'm at. I don't wanna be left saying "Where's the beef" while I hear reports of pummeling elsewhere. Just give me the deepest snow I've measured in 9 years (7"+) and I can be grateful for that despite the weenie in me always hunting the big dog, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Snowing at 120 on the icon...trying to see if it's gonna go nuclear 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Not a bad run, a vast improvement over 00z. Little late with the phase but solid scraper for this model i take . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Heisy said: Not a bad run, a vast improvement over 00z. Little late with the phase but solid scraper for this model i take . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It is so close there. That 500mb diving part of the tpv is clearly hard neg tilt. That would in theory tug er west 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 looks like a hair too far S and E...but we do get some snow on the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Heisy said: Not a bad run, a vast improvement over 00z. Little late with the phase but solid scraper for this model i take . Agree. Better than 0Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Ok, GFS about to begun. I'm gonna do my best. Not gonna try to be first, but try to be righterer. Except with the SV snow maps. Take that shit with a grain of salt. This is going to be the most important GFS until the next run. Lots of people's well being and marriages are counting on this. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 lets do the shut up for storm tracker ritual so he can be both the first and the "righterest" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: looks like a hair too far S and E...but we do get some snow on the ICON So damn close to a capture. And this is what i keep reiterating. That phase is a hair late then we get this (ICON). But a capture, then those places on the fringe go from nuisance/secs to mid/high end mecs in a blink. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, SnowenOutThere said: Meh-not to be cliche but it is the icon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I think people are COMPLETELY missing that point - thanks for making it again. It's not being out of the jack, it is missing the good stuff entirely. 24 hours of snow that accumulates 3 inches kinda stuff. That has been that way for years and years for many of us up this way. And out this way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper 12 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper You must’ve missed the icon run from yesterday at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper Yes, it went S and E of the HECS it had and relative to the other models it's a.....scraper. None of us would kick it out of bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper Dude crazy how close this was to a monster. Would not have taken much to phase cleaner and a bit earlier and a capture. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: You must’ve missed the icon run from yesterday at 12z Exactly. Like I said, I'm just comparing models when I comment. The ICON is perfectly fine for a snowstorm. I'd take it in a heartbeat 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I keep an eye on other areas for skiing purposes...and to give you an example for a week the ICON was way SE of most other guidance with the storm this weekend up in New England, along with the Euro AI BTW...showing the storm redeveloping off the coast v cutting up into upstate NY, showing the rain snow line never getting into VT when other guidance had it getting all the way into northern VT almost to Canada. Guess which models won and the ICON finally caved last night on that...now has the storm cutting with the mix getting into northern VT. You have to apply the models typical bias to their solutions when judging what is or isn't a "good" run. It's different if the euro which is the most amplified model typically is weak and progressive. We want to see the euro cranking up some 970 monster. The ICON...its find if its weaker since thats its typical error. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ya'll are funny, that was an ICON version of an MECS considering how progressive and dry it typically is...and ya'll calling it a scraper I just meant the bulk of precip is offshore but I agree for this model this is a good run at this range. Handling of tpv where just small shifts have large consequences makes modeling this type of event tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Now, if this is we're to be an early goalpost of the low end that shows up today...we'd all take this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx12 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 From the latest LWX discussion: (snip) Precip will spread across the region Saturday. Warm air aloft will overrun cold air near the surface, with a snow/sleet mix possible briefly at onset for many areas along and west of I-95. Accumulations of snow/sleet should be minimal as warmer air moves in aloft quickly, but a bout of freezing rain is becoming increasingly likely west of US-15 in particular Saturday afternoon and evening. Held off on any watches as 0.25" probs of ice are still modest, but the trend especially in hi-res guidance is up. Low pressure will move across the region Saturday night and keep a prolonged period of moderate rainfall in the region. An additional half to three-quarters of an inch of rain is possible. Because of cloud cover and rainfall Saturday night, low temperatures will bottom out in the middle 30s, which is about 10 degrees above average. Upslope snow in the Appalachians are expected to taper and come to an end gradually on Monday. Gusty winds will diminish as well throughout the day. Highs on Monday will be nearly 20 degrees colder than Sunday when the cold front will have passed through the region. One thing to note, cold high pressure that had set up shop behind the passing cold front on Sunday will be reinforced by a second area of high pressure Monday night through Wednesday. This high will keep temperatures Monday night, Tuesday, Tuesday night, and Wednesday below average. This reinforcement of cold air could set the stage for a winter storm that could bring accumulating snow to much of the region Wednesday night through late Thursday. As more information comes in, we will be fine-tuning the timing, precipitation type, and precipitation amounts with this mid-week storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Ji said: You must’ve missed the icon run from yesterday at 12z Salisbury lost 2 feet 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now