winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Obviously we don't want to split hairs here on a EURO AI run 160 days out but, this would be a mixer for most for sure. Pouring rain IMBY 160 days out??? Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Obviously we don't want to split hairs here on a EURO AI run 160 days out but, this would be a mixer for most for sure. Pouring rain IMBY If we have mixing issues in the middle of June that's when I will truly believe in climate change. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 160 days out??? Lol Just now, Mikeymac5306 said: If we have mixing issues in the middle of June that's when I will truly believe in climate change. Yes. It's old man math. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Quasievil said: Yes. It's old man math. Common core math lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: Common core math lol Nah, I grew up on 80's math. hehe. Sorry ya'll. I MEANT 160 HOURS out, of course. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 06z euro was definitely more amped up compared to 00z. The next 12 hours on the euro was going to be rippage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 15 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Obviously we don't want to split hairs here on a EURO AI run 160 days out but, this would be a mixer for most for sure. Pouring rain IMBY That's after it ends. Accumulating precip starts with the 228hr panel, which I've linked. If you scroll forward, temps drop during the heavy precip. Yes, N&W would do better. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2025021406&fh=228 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 47 minutes ago, mitchnick said: For laughs, 24hr qpf from the AI for 2/24 and that's not all of it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025021406&fh=246 IF that all fell as snow, congrats @George BM for the snowfall contest win 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's after it ends. Accumulating precip starts with the 228hr panel, which I've linked. If you scroll forward, temps drop during the heavy precip. Yes, N&W would do better. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=T2m&runtime=2025021406&fh=228 i am annoyed at myself for dissecting this day 10 AI run, but i'll pass on the torching 850s and screaming easterlies as that bad boy tucks way too far inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Bob Chill said: Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol definitely the usual suspects sweating over not getting a jackpot. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol If you are sweating the jack JI, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol FIXED 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”. I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”. I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Paleocene said: i am annoyed at myself for dissecting this day 10 AI run, but i'll pass on the torching 850s and screaming easterlies as that bad boy tucks way too far inland. If you look at the AI site, the 850's are at or below freezing. Normal 850's this time of year are below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4” storms are cool and all but we need a forum wide beast asap. Let’s be real 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: 4” storms are cool and all but we need a forum wide beast asap. Let’s be real I've been loving these 4-6" storms the past two winters, but I keep fantasizing about getting a big dump of 17", 30", or whatever big number. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m ready for a sweep again at 12z. I know the Ai has us feeling jittery, but let’s go! . 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Some decent analogs showing up d11+. Late feb/early Mar 1994 being a notable one. Early March 05 as well. As for next week, looks the same to me last few days in general. Cold progressive wave with probably the largest stripe of snow of the year in our general area. I think the SE whiff worries are overblown unless I'm misinterpretation something. Are people fretting the jack or the chance of accum snow in general? If your focused on accum snow, looks pretty easy. If you are sweating the jack, you will prob be unhappy while its actually snowing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft. Well, true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Early on positive icon changes, would be nice to start it on a good note . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: And there's a difference between getting a foot in your backyard while Boston gets 3 ft, and getting a foot and watching Raleigh getting 3 ft. I am NOT the arbiter of what others should want or be happy with... just for me so long as I get enough snow to feel like it was a "big storm" (usually thats around 8" or so) while obviously I want to be the jack and it stings a little if somewhere else gets a crap ton more...it doesn't ruin the storm totally the way getting some 1-3" fringe does. At least it feels like I got a legit storm even if its 10" and not 20" or whatever. A couple of those 2021 storms I got like 10" or 12" and not too far away got 30" and yea it stung a tiny bit but I enjoyed the storms and was happy once I got over not getting the crazy stupid totals and let it go and accepted I was getting a very good MECS level snow and not a HECS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I mean there is a difference between getting 8” and being upset someone else got 12” and getting 3” when others got 8-12”. I’m fine with not being the jack so long as I get into the “meat” of the storm and not another fringe I think people are COMPLETELY missing that point - thanks for making it again. It's not being out of the jack, it is missing the good stuff entirely. 24 hours of snow that accumulates 3 inches kinda stuff. That has been that way for years and years for many of us up this way. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m ready for a sweep again at 12z. I know the Ai has us feeling jittery, but let’s go! .Anything less than 10 is a disastrous outcome imo! 1 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 49 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Problem is, that's a rainstorm. 32 line is in Western Maryland. Saw that too, didn't want to ruin the party on Valentine's Day tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ji said: Anything less than 10 is a disastrous outcome imo! what is an "acceptable solution" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: I think people are COMPLETELY missing that point - thanks for making it again. It's not being out of the jack, it is missing the good stuff entirely. 24 hours of snow that accumulates 3 inches kinda stuff. That has been that way for years and years for many of us up this way. Exactly. We're overdue for a big time beast. Is the 20th the one? Sure hope so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 45 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Let's get past the one for the 20th before we start worrying about fantasyland on the 24th lol How about we get past the one on the 15th before setting the 20th in stone? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If we are tracking towards a big one Sunday. It's on! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 Stop posting yall. I need to catch up from the posts after the 0z Euro. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now