mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Did anyone even post the 6Z EPS? Was it that bad? The 6Z euro op at 144 looked fantastic. I had some posts earlier on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Anyone remember how beautiful those ensembles were about a week ago for the storm we just had? Yeah i didn't think soThe ensemble means about 8 inches and that’s what most people got. Except for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not much to see on the snow maps since the EPS also only goes to 144 Seeing a bunch of snow to our SW seems good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Anyone remember how beautiful those ensembles were about a week ago for the storm we just had? Yeah i didn't think so That's fair, but I don't remember the globals latching onto a solution 150 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not much to see on the snow maps since the EPS also only goes to 144 So is it getting pushed back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not much to see on the snow maps since the EPS also only goes to 144 Here's 6hr snowfall 144hr vs 150 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: Here's 6hr snowfall 144hr vs 150 0z slightly slower? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Anyone remember how beautiful those ensembles were about a week ago for the storm we just had? Yeah i didn't think so Forecasting by snow maps isn’t the ideal method of course, but there’s an important difference here. Last week’s ensemble maps favored Tuesday, but had a lot of time spread with some snow from yesterday and some from tomorrow. So the big totals were like 96-120 hour totals. 24 hour totals were always more in the 5-6” range. This storm’s ensemble snow maps aren’t “contaminated” by that spread in storms and timing. And I know you’re 50% trolling, but I love you anyway. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, bncho said: slightly slower? I hope so! Lol Honestly, I liked the 6z Euro operational more than the Eps, but that's me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Forecasting by snow maps isn’t the ideal method of course, but there’s an important difference here. Last week’s ensemble maps favored Tuesday, but had a lot of time spread with some snow from yesterday and some from tomorrow. So the big totals were like 96-120 hour totals. 24 hour totals were always more in the 5-6” range. This storm’s ensemble snow maps aren’t “contaminated” by that spread in storms and timing. And I know you’re 50% trolling, but I love you anyway. Happy Valentines Day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm certainly intrigued by next week. Another fun week of tracking possible. I've been slammed at work with this next bomb eastern half of the CONUS, so I look forward to recaps once I get off work. Let's hope for a solid 12z 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI really has been the evil twin of the Euro. But I haven't seen it show a bomb that hits us like the 2/24 storm on this run fwiw. At this range, I would still favor the operationals and their ensembles. Didn’t the AI have next to nothing for dca 24 hours before Tuesdays snowstorm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Ok, let's not start dreaming up ways to fail. Just tag Ralph. @Ralph Wiggum, cut that shit out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z Euro at 144.....looks like its about to crank into Virginia, would love to have seen 1 more frame. Looks a bit south of the 12z run but still a win for everyone 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I hope so! Lol Honestly, I liked the 6z Euro operational more than the Eps, but that's me. 6Z out on TT and boy was that op about to destroy us. Like u said looked as good as 0z if not better. I’m happy to have the op trending better at 144. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: 6Z out on TT and boy was that op about to destroy us. Like u said looked as good as 0z if not better. I’m happy to have the op trending better at 144. I wished the 6z operational and Eps could trade places, but that would probably mean many overamped members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: I wished the 6z operational and Eps could trade places, but that would probably mean many overamped members. I dunno man euro op has been really good this winter IMO. And the big players have already taken the field at 120 and our storm is well on its way to forming. Not saying we can’t get a big rug pull, but I feel pretty good seeing that 6Z euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Hear hear....I concur. The 6z euro op was about to go ballistic there at the end. H5 improved imo with timing of the phase. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 For laughs, 24hr qpf from the AI for 2/24 and that's not all of it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025021406&fh=246 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 looked like AI was further SE with the major QPF on the 6z run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hear hear....I concur. The 6z euro op was about to go ballistic there at the end. H5 improved imo with timing of the phase. Agree, looks like we were about to get obliterated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Love how cold it would be before and during this event. Upper 10s/low 20s on euro. Even during daytime. That’s pretty unusual for late season snow events obviously. 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6z Ukie ensembles are a little lighter and shifted east some from 0z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WB 12Z NBM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 31 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Didn’t the AI have next to nothing for dca 24 hours before Tuesdays snowstorm? Honestly, I stopped looking at it to closely with the last 24-36 hours and was only focused imby. I don’t recall exactly what it had, but TT has old runs going back to 2/7, so you'd get your answer there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, Shad said: looked like AI was further SE with the major QPF on the 6z run Looking at the 500mb trends on the op Euro and Gfs, there's no reason for a se shift. It's the same setup with higher heights out in front if anything. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: For laughs, 24hr qpf from the AI for 2/24 and that's not all of it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025021406&fh=246 Problem is, that's a rainstorm. 32 line is in Western Maryland. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Quasievil said: Problem is, that's a rainstorm. 32 line is in Western Maryland. In your back yard, part of it would be mix/rain. North and west would be a paste job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 26 minutes ago, mitchnick said: For laughs, 24hr qpf from the AI for 2/24 and that's not all of it. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=neus&pkg=apcpn24&runtime=2025021406&fh=246 Let's get past the one for the 20th before we start worrying about fantasyland on the 24th lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mitchnick said: In your back yard, part of it would be mix/rain. North and west would be a paste job. Obviously we don't want to split hairs here on a EURO AI run 160 days out but, this would be a mixer for most for sure. Pouring rain IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now