February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Stormchaserchuck1]

This ridge from Californina to Russia is a good example of what a cold 10mb (Stratosphere) looks like near the surface, as the effect of a stronger Polar Vortex at the Pole speeds up, and makes it down like the funnel of a tornado at 0-time. On its edges, in the midlatitudes a ridge is flexed. Below you see the down atmospheric effects of a cold/fast 10mb level, which is centered over western Greenland and the Davis Strait currently. 

Cold Stratosphere correlates to 500mb at 0-time.

Warm Stratosphere corrleates to 500 at +15-45 days. 

[NorthArlington101]

GFS remains insistent on ice Wednesday/Thursday. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS remains insistent on ice Wednesday/Thursday. 

Yeah I don't get that...I suppose we oughta just ignore it unless other guidance starts to show it. And besides, how often do we get ice when it hasn't been cold leading up to it? (Real question, actually...not entirely sure)

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS remains insistent on ice Wednesday/Thursday. 

Icon starts off icy too. 

[bncho]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't get that...I suppose we oughta just ignore it unless other guidance starts to show it. And besides, how often do we get ice when it hasn't been cold leading up to it? (Real question, actually...not entirely sure)

The CMC/GEM was insistent on a warm start, and all the other models caved to it 24 hours before the event. Hopefully something like that happens with the GFS?

[87storms]

Yeah I don't get that...I suppose we oughta just ignore it unless other guidance starts to show it. And besides, how often do we get ice when it hasn't been cold leading up to it? (Real question, actually...not entirely sure)

It’s going all in on a cad setup with a decent hp in place over New England. Who knows. Agreed, that there will be practically zero fzra concerns with the recent temps.

[CAPE]

There is a pretty complex split flow pattern that probably explains some of the differences between the models for mid/late week. GFS is notably less amplified than the Euro.

 

[BristowWx]

Look like already ice risk from LWX for next week.  Code yellow.  Kinda early 

[CAPE]

Just now, BristowWx said:

Look like already ice risk from LWX for next week.  Code yellow.  Kinda early 

They loving the GFS lol.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There is a pretty complex split flow pattern that probably explains some of the differences between the models for mid/late week. GFS is notably less amplified than the Euro.

 

 

Doesn't the Euro tend to over amplify ? 

 

 

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

They loving the GFS lol.

Ice is annoying.  Unless it’s like 19F.  All the public over reaction and nothing but wet landscape.  

[CAPE]

Just now, frd said:

 

Doesn't the Euro tend to over amplify ? 

 

 

 

Not necessarily, and split flow patterns tend to be more difficult for models to resolve in general. Most other guidance is more in line with the Euro.

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Look like already ice risk from LWX for next week.  Code yellow.  Kinda early 

Dumb question but I can’t find those maps on the winter site anymore - you got a link?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dumb question but I can’t find those maps on the winter site anymore - you got a link?

I can’t find it either.  I saw it on my google news feed.  Fake news?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

6 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I was talking about where we’re heading about Feb 20. Which is 20 days away. Which is more than 15 

Why are you going with the warmer less accurate guidance over the colder more accurate guidance? 

I've just seen the look models before.. it's a difficult one to change. If you really want to get down to it, we have a Weak Nina right now.. even during the late Nov - mid Jan cold period there was +OLR and +SOI, and other things Weak Nina-like, especially during the end. In late December the subsurface ENSO went from Neutral to pretty moderately Negative. I've researched this, and run numbers, and a negative anomaly in the central-ENSO-subsurface region at 150-200m correlates to -PNA conditions. Because it didn't happening immediately when the cold pool flared up and was a bit lagged, I feel it may stick around longer now. I've seen this time of year -PNA... after Jan 27th, the coldest day of the year, it's like a switch flips, and we go -PNA for whatever reason. Because it's aligned with the warming/cooling cycles of the Hemisphere, it seems to be somewhat of a permanent pattern. 

I think you agree that the snow prospects are slim for the next 15 days. If the pattern goes more -EPO like the EPS has, that favors maybe some ice, but models are pretty consistent on having an East Coast/mid atlantic ridge at least through day 15. Beyond there, you seem to be bullish on it getting cold again, but I've seen these LR ridges try to change a -PNA in the long range, by overtaking the NAO or whatever, and they don't work out as well in verification as you would think.. the RNA pattern is a stubborn one and can be difficult to change. I do think we could see some breaks, but probably not the late Nov - mid January cold that we just experienced. It's hard to pattern change. That doesn't mean that it can't happen, it's just a little lower confidence right now on the Day 16+. 

[aldie 22]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Dumb question but I can’t find those maps on the winter site anymore - you got a link?

Briefing page

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I've just seen the look models before.. it's a difficult one to change. If you really want to get down to it, we have a Weak Nina right now.. even during the late Nov - mid Jan cold period there was +OLR and +SOI, and other things Weak Nina-like, especially during the end. In late December the subsurface ENSO went from Neutral to pretty moderately Negative. I've researched this, and run numbers, and a negative anomaly in the central-ENSO-subsurface region at 150-200m correlates to -PNA conditions. Because it didn't happening immediately when the cold pool flared up and was a bit lagged, I feel it may stick around longer now. I've seen this time of year -PNA... after Jan 27th, the coldest day of the year, it's like a switch flips, and we go -PNA for whatever reason. Because it's aligned with the warming/cooling cycles of the Hemisphere, it seems to be somewhat of a permanent pattern. 

I think you agree that the snow prospects are slim for the next 15 days. If the pattern goes more -EPO like the EPS has, that favors maybe some ice, but models are pretty consistent on having an East Coast/mid atlantic ridge at least through day 15. Beyond there, you seem to be bullish on it getting cold again, but I've seen these LR ridges try to change a -PNA in the long range, by overtaking the NAO or whatever, and they don't work out as well in verification as you would think.. the RNA pattern is a stubborn one and can be difficult to change. I do think we could see some breaks, but probably not the late Nov - mid January cold that we just experienced. 

I don't think many are expecting the magnitude of cold we just experienced- or at least I hope not. It isn't likely to happen. Good news is we don't need that. February likes to snow on us, and the pattern being depicted around mid month and going forward could certainly produce a MA winter storm. Whether it actually does or not is another story.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I don't think many are expecting the magnitude of cold we just experienced- or at least I hope not. It isn't likely to happen. Good news is we don't need that. February likes to snow on us, and the pattern being depicted around mid month and going forward could certainly produce a MA winter storm. Whether it actually does or not is another story.

A lot of the long range factors were unfavorable for cold/snowy though.. it's important to keep that in mind when looking ahead to the long range, the QBO is still record positive, which with a Weak Nina favors cold 10mb conditions, or at least not a Major Stratosphere warming. People can freak out about the 10mb PV being split, but it's very close to a near neutral anomaly, so the best that is, imo, is a "not super +AO". -PDO, west-based Nina, etc... If the MJO can stay strong going into Phase 8 late February, maybe that is something to watch, but I've seen this Scandinavian ridging trying to break that NAO in the long range before, and it seems to be something just runs with more -PNA. We'll see I guess. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

A lot of the long range factors were unfavorable for cold/snowy though.. it's important to keep that in mind when looking ahead to the long range, the QBO is still record positive, which with a Weak Nina favors cold 10mb conditions, or at least not a Major Stratosphere warming. People can freak out about the 10mb PV being split, but it's very close to a near neutral anomaly, so the best that is, imo, is a "not super +AO". -PDO, west-based Nina, etc... If the MJO can stay strong going into Phase 8 late February, maybe that is something to watch, but I've seen this Scandinavian ridging trying to break that NAO in the long range before, and it seems to be something just associated with more -PNA. We'll see I guess. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You're a good sport 

[CAPE]

HH GFS sure was active.. we need a Ji disaster post up in here. JK.

[CAPE]

18z GEFS continues to suggest a storm around the 12th might be our first best shot, as most other ens guidance does.

[clskinsfan]

Been kinda chillin the past few days. Late February/early March is lining up to be a major beatdown. Will be back in a few days.

[87storms]

Been kinda chillin the past few days. Late February/early March is lining up to be a major beatdown. Will be back in a few days.

We might not be able to escape winter this year, though it would have been cool if it snowed this weekend for Fire in Ice in Frederick.

[DarkSharkWX]

waiting for it to come out on WB but it looks good

[Allsnow]

Where is @mitchnick

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Where is @mitchnick

Napping  

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

waiting for it to come out on WB but it looks good

That's a little further west than 12z. If anyone recalls, or you can find my post a few pages back, I  said the threats were there at 12z but shoved a bit too far east due to cold. These look a tick or 2 better for sure.

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

waiting for it to come out on WB but it looks good

First one is snow for most. 2nd system is a wound up closed low that is so strong it turns everyone to rain. But it's 2 weeks away and will be different in 6 hours. 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

First one is snow for most. 2nd system is a wound up closed low that is so strong it turns everyone to rain. But it's 2 weeks away and will be different in 6 hours. 

2nd one. All that warm air from the SER comes surging onshore.