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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

0z GFS and 6z NAM completely different from each other at 84hr.. GFS dug part of the Polar Jet a lot further SW.. NAM has less phasing.  NAM not the best model though.

Nam did way better with this past storm then the gfs. Gfs was giving us the whole time 12+ Nam 1-2... We ended up with under 1

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48 minutes ago, Interstate said:

So is the 20th going to be a Miller B screw job?

This isn't a Miller B as depicted. Low pressure forms along the Gulf coast and moves up along the SE coast. The exact position and strength and where it tracks from there depends largely on the degree of interaction/phasing with the energy associated with the TPV, and exactly when that occurs. A little too late on the 6z GFS.

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5 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This isn't a Miller B as depicted. Low pressure forms along the Gulf coast and moves up along the SE coast. The exact position and strength and where it tracks from there depends largely on  how much interaction/phasing there is with the energy associated with the TPV, and exactly when that occurs. A little too late on the 6z GFS.

Wonder if that kicker out West is having an influence? Stronger and faster at 6z.

gfs_z500_vort_us_25-2.png

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4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This isn't a Miller B as depicted. Low pressure forms along the Gulf coast and moves up along the SE coast. The exact position and strength and where it tracks from there depends largely on  how much interaction/phasing occurs with the energy associated with the TPV, and exactly when that occurs. A little too late on the 6z GFS.

May not end as a Dewey Beach event, there is so much energy could be a rather massive extent to snowfall on the Western side.  Could be an area wide MECS. Fits the indices. hope the northern jet doesn't screw us. 

 

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11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

This isn't a Miller B as depicted. Low pressure forms along the Gulf coast and moves up along the SE coast. The exact position and strength and where it tracks from there depends largely on the degree of interaction/phasing with the energy associated with the TPV, and exactly when that occurs. A little too late on the 6z GFS.

Thanks. Haven’t put that much interest into it yet to look at the H5 maps. I was just going on the snow map. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Too late.  I wake up and think how can I fail today.  I go to bed rewinding how I failed.  

Ha ha. Brother, you've got to let go of the Redskin mindset that’s plagued your existence these last 20 years and embrace the Commander mojo. Or better yet, the EAGLE mojo and think positively!

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