Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 That’s exactly why I wanted an amplified pattern When are you going to analyze all this drama?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Listen Ji… we’re not pinning your 2/20 thread yet. Gotta keep the good juju alive 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, LeesburgWx said: Wow, just got caught up and am stunned we have every major model on board in some capacity. We say it all the time, but the (say it with me now) “big ones are always sniffed out early.” That Euro run is legit and CMC / ULMeT looks great. GFS is close too. What a night! Even the dang navgem was brewing something up at the end of its run. Woof! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Listen Ji… we’re not pinning your 2/20 thread yet. Gotta keep the good juju alive Last week you all deleted my storm thread and we lost 5-9 inched soon after Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Even the dang navgem was brewing something up at the end of its run. Woof!If the AI is the new king....it should of led the way at 18zUnless it's right Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: If the AI is the new king....it should of led the way at 18z Unless it's right Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk But it's artificial. It's like the Tesla of models. Matter of time before it's sets fire to itself. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ji what the fuck are you doing bro? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ji what the fuck are you doing bro?The 00z tomer burg says yes. Stop being scared of threadshttps://x.com/burgwx/status/1890270123577209015?t=PHTsCJAORvIKG7-7--c3mg&s=19Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: The 00z tomer burg says yes. Stop being scared of threadshttps://x.com/burgwx/status/1890270123577209015?t=PHTsCJAORvIKG7-7--c3mg&s=19 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Tomer says he's gonna be out of town.. damn, it might actually happen now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Tomer says he's gonna be out of town.. damn, it might actually happen now.Is this good,?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Ji said: The 00z tomer burg says yes. Stop being scared of threadshttps://x.com/burgwx/status/1890270123577209015?t=PHTsCJAORvIKG7-7--c3mg&s=19 Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Ok, you made the earliest storm thread ever and it might happen. Please don't jinx yourself. You are sitting high beside the throne right now with @psuhoffmanin the king seat. Enjoy it. This may be your americanwx crowning/defining moment. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Is this good,?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkUh… yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ok, you made the earliest storm thread ever and it might happen. Please don't jinx yourself. You are sitting high beside the throne right now with [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention]in the king seat. Enjoy it. This may be your americanwx crowning/defining moment.This is psu storm man. I'm not worthy to be the ground he walks on Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14 Author Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Is this good,? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Just don't fall into the bs about the storm being 96 hours and you'll expectations will be set. It's not set in stone dude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just don't fall into the bs about the storm being 96 hours and you'll expectations will be set. It's not set in stone dude.How many hours out is it in your opinion?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This is psu storm man. I'm not worthy to be the ground he walks on Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkHe did call 2/20 as the kick off… and also asked for amped solutions by tonight’s runs. Snow whisperer over there 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just saw the euro. Sick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Queue the uproar if these exact solutions don’t hold for 6 straight days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm a bit skeptical of a big one riding on the heals of this.. This is at your -5 AO Don't get me wrong the Pacific turns favorable.. -EPO/+PNA is definitely what we want, but I think a 4-10" event is more likely than 12-20". I can see something moving more W->E vs S->N. The pattern is actually pretty progressive, it's just a matter of really good timing, having a trough right under the Canadian block on models tonight. They sharpened the trough, but not necessarily the N. Hemisphere fundamentals. I mean it could happen like that, but there's more margin of error imo, and less high potential too without an east-pos-PNA and further SW 50/50 low. Don't get me wrong, I think there could be a snowstorm. But I'm not buying the MECS just yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This moisture sure is pretty though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I'm a bit skeptical of a big one riding on the heals of this.. This is at your -5 AO Don't get me wrong the Pacific turns favorable.. -EPO/+PNA is definitely what we want, but I think a 4-10" event is more likely than 12-20". I can see something moving more W->E vs S->N. The pattern is actually pretty progressive, it's just a matter of really good timing, having a trough right under the Canadian block on models tonight. They sharpened the trough, but not necessarily the N. Hemisphere fundamentals. I mean it could happen like that, but there's more margin of error imo, and less high potential too without an east-pos-PNA and further SW 50/50 low Don't get me wrong, I think there could be a snowstorm. But I'm not buying the MECS just yet. That Saturday wave is riding “on the heels” of a storm that just dropped 8-10” of snow in southern MD on Wednesday. 4 days after Saturday is plenty of separation for another storm to brew and for the necessary pieces to move into place. Yes, it has higher fail risk than a big southern stream gulf low in a niño for instance… but it’s certainly doable. 4 major models all showed how tonight. Betting on 12-20” in a niña is never a safe bet by any means, but it’s also not impossible given the setup. Timing is everything though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This moisture sure is pretty thoughPerfect example. 60-72 hours AFTER this point is plenty of time for the storm in Canada to move out and for the storm out west to get its act together. We have seen large snowstorms follow warmer rainy storms that drop the boundary south numerous times. Skepticism is warranted, especially for a 12+” outcome in a niña… but if the rationale is wave spacing, that’s not it. I do agree about the path to failure if it were to happen - a progressive solution that hits east if timing isn’t just right. We’ll see. If models are still honking come Sunday, it’s very much game on. We DO get lucky in niñas from time to time, and it seems to want to snow this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 WB 0Z AI remains eastern outlier but did tick slightly west this run compared to 18Z. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: That Saturday wave is riding “on the heels” of a storm that just dropped 8-10” of snow in southern MD on Wednesday. 4 days after Saturday is plenty of separation for another storm to brew and for the necessary pieces to move into place. Yes, it has higher fail risk than a big southern stream gulf low in a niño for instance… but it’s certainly doable. 4 major models all showed how tonight. Betting on 12-20” in a niña is never a safe bet by any means, but it’s also not impossible given the setup. Timing is everything though. True, but it is about "threading the needle" a little bit, as we need a perfectly timed wave, which models showed tonight, but I'm just saying there is more potential variance than normal between now and the event.. It's not being held constant by any particular thing in the upper latitudes, except the remains of the -AO block over Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: Perfect example. 60-72 hours AFTER this point is plenty of time for the storm in Canada to move out and for the storm out west to get its act together. We have seen large snowstorms follow warmer rainy storms that drop the boundary south numerous times. Skepticism is warranted, especially for a 12+” outcome in a niña… but if the rationale is wave spacing, that’s not it. I do agree about the path to failure if it were to happen - a progressive solution that hits east if timing isn’t just right. We’ll see. If models are still honking come Sunday, it’s very much game on. We DO get lucky in niñas from time to time, and it seems to want to snow this year. It's not about wave spacing, it's about having a nearly perfectly timed wave to get the high outcome. That map shows that there's a lot of moisture though. I just think the high potential is capped, given the larger 500mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 0z GFS and 6z NAM completely different from each other at 84hr.. GFS dug part of the Polar Jet a lot further SW.. NAM has less phasing. NAM not the best model though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, Ji said: When are you going to analyze all this drama? Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Analyze the drama? I’ve got a Masters degree in Counseling. So here goes. The Polar Vortex split and potential of a SECS vs HECS is having a serious impact on the mental well-being of the majority of this forum, especially those in Loudoun County, leading to Winter Bipolar Disorder and increasing symptoms of SAD. Recommend sleep, not jumping the cliff before the Euro drops a HECS, and definitely get an increase in your Lithium. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It's not about wave spacing, it's about having a nearly perfectly timed wave to get the high outcome. That map shows that there's a lot of moisture though. I just think the high potential is capped, given the larger 500mb pattern. We have a 150 year body of record that says it’s hard to get 12” storms in DC/Baltimore. So yeah. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, weatherkyle said: We have a 150 year body of record that says it’s hard to get 12” storms in DC/Baltimore. So yeah. I agree. We could have a buckled mid latitude jet though.. if that were the case you could say, 1/3 odds, 1/2 odds or whatever.. but it's not an ideal jet stream situation we have as waves west and east of the storm are progressive. Just makes the timing needing to be just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 27 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 0z GFS and 6z NAM completely different from each other at 84hr.. GFS dug part of the Polar Jet a lot further SW.. NAM has less phasing. NAM not the best model though. Confidence increases when all the globals and ensembles show an intense storm. Exact track won't be set in stone as usual until we are within a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now