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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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I'll probably be up by then...but only goes to 144, so not sure we'll glean much unless the H5 is clear as day

I know you think I’m a moron but the storm develops in 84/96 hours. Euro wheelhouse or nah?
df4047fefa5205bfb9b66ea9245e682d.jpg
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Just now, jayyy said:

00z output Forum wide:

GFS: 6-10”
GEM: 12-20+”
UK: 12-16”
Euro: 12-20+”

Wow.

This setup isn't messing around. We haven't had all major models showing a storm like this in the medium range in a long time.

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1 minute ago, Ji said:


I know you think I’m a moron but the storm develops in 84/96 hours. Euro wheelhouse or nah?
df4047fefa5205bfb9b66ea9245e682d.jpg

It's not that, but you're looking at it in the wrong way.  A slight change in the H5 map could definitely happen at 96 hours that could throw the whole thing off.   You know sometimes models find phantom s/w they never had, etc etc.  I need under 150 to becoming vested and under 120 to be fully vested

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I know you think I’m a moron but the storm develops in 84/96 hours. Euro wheelhouse or nah?
df4047fefa5205bfb9b66ea9245e682d.jpg

You’re actually not wrong. That’s why I think PSU’s 120-150 hour window to reel things is spot on. Yes, the storm is 120-150 out, but what makes or breaks storms is the initial evolution up top. 96 hours out is late Tuesday.. which is a crucial time for this storms evolution. Don’t think it’s a coincidence that every major model moved our way at the same time. Especially at 0z.
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It's not that, but you're looking at it in the wrong way.  A slight change in the H5 map could definitely happen at 96 hours that could throw the whole thing off.   You know sometimes models find phantom s/w they never had, etc etc.  I need under 150 to becoming vested and under 120 to be fully vested

I guess what I’m saying is what happens between 96-120 will make or break our storm. The euro is often stubbornly good in this range so to me…this is encouraging
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11 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Don't hex this HECS Ralphie

H5 is eerily similar. That was a massive storm....eta: the southern energy just escaped. We didn't have the same sort of blocking as next week to force out tpv or a lobe of it South either as projected. Similarities but also differences on the positive side as of this hour.

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Wow, just got caught up and am stunned we have every major model on board in some capacity. We say it all the time, but the (say it with me now) “big ones are always sniffed out early.” That Euro run is legit and CMC / ULMeT looks great. GFS is close too. What a night!

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