Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I stand corrected saying the PNA has been positive all Winter yesterday. There is something wrong with the CPC's methodology of calculating.. this is a 1-month period of -PNA.. I don't care that the CPC says it was +pna. It's not going to actually be one of the most +PNA Winter's on record.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen. Trends on what model the AI and GFS? Come on man at least wait for the Hrrr to get jumpy lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, Terpeast said: To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen. yea I agree with this... if we arent seeing a hit on guidance Saturday...we will be within the range where major changes have not been happening...its been kinda amazing how locked in guidance has become once inside 100 hours...people focus on the relatively minor changes like a 30 mile shift here or there because often we are on the edges either of the precip or rain snow line and those shifts matter to our ground truth...but the fact it only changed that much in 5 days often is crazy compared to the past when storms would go from a NC hit to a NYC to Boston hit in that time normally. And before people say..."how can you jump ship now" I'm not but I have to be real, yea I liked this period and still do and its a great pattern...but even in a great pattern we can miss a storm like this by a little bit...its amazing its going to be this close...it all came together almost perfectly...but if we get to Saturday its time to admit if its just not 100% right for our location to get a hit and move on to the next wave. There will be more threats I think in this pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Ukie doubled down on its 12z ensembles (that I posted earlier) to give us this at 18z. This is a 24hr snowfall too. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie doubled down on its 12z ensembles (that I posted earlier) to give us this at 18z. This is a 24hr snowfall too. I mean that’s a tucked signal from hell 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 It’s not about any model run, IMO. It’s that any model that catches the phasing spits out a historic East coast storm up through the northeast. That isn’t a high probability outcome, but the potential is still being shown on every model suite. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 52 minutes ago, Terpeast said: To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen. What about the healthy eps from earlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie doubled down No. Ukie was real bad for most of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: No. Ukie was real bad for most of us. Ukie ensembles 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 37 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie doubled down on its 12z ensembles (that I posted earlier) to give us this at 18z. This is a 24hr snowfall too. Sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 If the EPS looks like that tonight then its game on... but right now we are being teased each run with just enough guidance to make us think maybe...but we've yet to have a run where the majority consensus was a hit. It's close...real real close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the EPS looks like that tonight then its game on... but right now we are being teased each run with just enough guidance to make us think maybe...but we've yet to have a run where the majority consensus was a hit. It's close...real real close. I feel like there was storms recently where everything started shifting west in the 48-84 hour range. Maybe it was boxing day or something where it looked like it was going to be a complete miss--then everything started shifting west....still screwed us though but i remember seeing a NAM or GFS run the day before give us like 8 inches lol. i guess models dont do that anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the EPS looks like that tonight then its game on... but right now we are being teased each run with just enough guidance to make us think maybe...but we've yet to have a run where the majority consensus was a hit. It's close...real real close. Baltinorth crew represent! We can get through this, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Terpeast said: Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep I am! Only because it's not staying up for me because I habitually go to bed late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep why--you have from March to December to sleep. Be a real weatherman lol! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleep Real snow lovers stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Who is waiting up for the euro/eps? Not me, I need sleepUsually depends on how the gfs/cmc look, at least we don’t have to stay up until 1-2am like years back . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Heisy said: Usually depends on how the gfs/cmc look, at least we don’t have to stay up until 1-2am like years back . that was the worst lol. Started at 12:45am---ended at 2:00am and most of the time it wasnt worth it...and even worse when we had threats after the time change 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I’m an early fan of the icon, let’s see if it can start the night off right. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This looks pretty solid so far…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Heisy said: This looks pretty solid so far… . if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, psuhoffman said: if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go... sometimes you wonder how this stuff thats so close could miss--but it happens all the time. from thsi screen shot...it looks like it would be an upset if they didnt phase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go... Need everything to slow down for that to happen, and it's somewhat of a progressive pattern.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, Ji said: sometimes you wonder how this stuff thats so close could miss--but it happens all the time. from thsi screen shot...it looks like it would be an upset if they didnt phase It's a literal crapshoot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 if that peice over the Dakotas phases in fully its a go...Flow is oretty good, even if it doesn’t bomb in time it could still be a really good event this run . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 i think it phased a bit too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 its not a bad run but nothing close to 12z--so a big step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Southern vort just escapes, scraper, ugh . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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