mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: We just need a Mitch bomb saying the Ai ticked W . I wish. It's further south and east again. Barely anything northwest of I95 north of Fredericksburg. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I wish. It's further south and east again. Barely anything northwest of I95 north of Fredericksburg. it’s been flopping around for days. not any better than any other piece of guidance 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I wish. It's further south and east again. Barely anything northwest of I95 north of Fredericksburg. Seems like time to pull the plug. Nothing is working 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Another big storm on 2/23 that hits eastern NC and SE VA. Time for spring if you like snow and the AI is close to being right. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Ji said: Seems like time to pull the plug. Nothing is working it was too far southeast and weak with the storm this weekend, finally caved at 12z and jumped way NW in line with other guidance. We will see... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: it’s been flopping around for days. not any better than any other piece of guidance The best run was 12z, but this run is a lot like the prior 3 runs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: it’s been flopping around for days. not any better than any other piece of guidance We'll see how things trend tomorrow. But if by saturday we don't see any improvements, it may be time to jump ship on that one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Seems like time to pull the plug. Nothing is working The stormnon the 23rd is more painful. It is an absolute bomb. Frankly, it's cry worthy. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: 18z a little too progressive for my liking compared to 12z. Yeah, that looks a lot more like what the GFS looked like at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The stormnon the 25th is more painful. It is an absolute bomb. Frankly, it's cry worthy. LolI need something man. Philly in the worst winter slump ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Heisy said: I need something man. Philly in the worst winter slump ever . It's the 23rd not 25th. I was typing (maybe thumbing is more accurate) too fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I need something man. Philly in the worst winter slump ever . Scroll forward. It's absolutely maddening how it can stay off the coast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502131800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502230600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Yeah, that looks a lot more like what the GFS looked like at 12z. not really...pull up the GFS and compare them...the GFS is way off on its own world wrt the NS H5 look...all stretched out over the top... BUT... I am in the "it wasn't a great trend" camp. Those saying its more amplified are correct, however, its also more east and that outweighs this for our purposes because we are the furthest west of all the east coast regions trying to get a storm here...we have the least amount of time to waste as the wave progresses east before it bombs...it doesn't matter if its more amplified if it starts to bomb and gets captured too late...then its the typical congrats beaches and NYC to Boston we are used to in a nina. But its a minor thing...it can flip back at 0z it wasn't some huge move that had me like OH NO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Scroll forward. It's absolutely maddening how it can stay off the coast. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502131800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502230600 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Another big storm on 2/23 that hits eastern NC and SE VA. Time for spring if you like snow and the AI is close to being right. 27th! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Lol you guys are insane talking about jumping ship a week out. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, Allsnow said: 27th! The 27 th seems to be a monster that is slower than the 20th and the 23 rd. I can't make it to the 27 th. I need a hit and soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 6 minutes ago, Heisy said: I need something man. Philly in the worst winter slump ever . No disrespect. Because you are not the typical Philly troll. But snow is an imby game. Very rarely do we both win. It is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: 27th! 27th not so kind in this forum. Better up your way for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: Lol you guys are insane talking about jumping ship a week out. Right? Big azz storm just grazing the coast. No way it can tick N and W as the AO races towards positive? That AI was 100-200 mile nudge West from being a high-end MECS. Gimme a break ppl. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Wait why are we talking about pulling the plug? 12z EPS looked great. AI and GFS aren’t too far off. Still 6 ish days out. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: No way it can tick N and W It has to. Or we are all cooked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Wait why are we talking about pulling the plug? 12z EPS looked great. AI and GFS aren’t too far off. Still 6 ish days out. lol you’d think this was an awful winter for the area. let’s ignore the EPS, 12z OP ECMWF, GEPS, UKMET because of the GFS and AIFS 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Lol you guys are insane talking about jumping ship a week out.It’s not though…. in about three-4 days, the storm will be developing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarthHokie Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s not though…. in about three-4 days, the storm will be developing No it is. From someone who does stochastic modeling for a living. Alot of you take too much stock in 4 days out….. never mind almost 7. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol you’d think this was an awful winter for the area. let’s ignore the EPS, 12z OP ECMWF, GEPS, UKMET because of the GFS and AIFS And ffs the AI isn't far off at all. Methinks ppl either have ptsd from being skipped over alot recently or have moved onto spring in the middle of Feb. Either is plain insanity. This is our best chance of a nicer storm the entire season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: To be clear, I’m not saying jump ship NOW… I’m saying that the trends aren’t great and I want to see what things look like by Saturday, which is when I think we’ll have a better idea what’s going to happen. Hard to tell what the path to victory is here. If the upper level energy is too far north, we're looking at a Miller hybrid or B (which seems to be what's being modeled)...if it's further south, it might work out better for the southern crew, but leave those to the north with a nasty gradient again. I guess we need everything to be a little further west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The pattern is ok... you guys aren't hearing me that, that's not a 50/50 low.. it's too far NE and actually a +NAO. Now +NAO has higher precip correlation, so when the Pacific pattern works you can get an overrunning storm.. that's probably what we'll get, but not a Miller A without south-of-Alaska low 500mb and sustained 50/50 low. Beyond there, I got weenied 10 times for saying this last night... but it's not an impressive cold pattern. The EPO looks to go positive for a few days. The next "threat" after the 20-22, probably right now looks like rain. @psuhoffman The AO pattern has its highest snow correlation when it's deeply negative.. not coming back to neutral or positive. The NAO is what you want to see go back to neutral because its negative phase is so dry... but we are missing a -5 AO here with 2 rainstorms. After that, when the AO goes back to neutral/positive, it's not a favorable pattern for MECS anymore! I know your research says lag, but besides the 20-22 storm, it's not looking like a favorable period, mostly because of lack of deep cold (because by that time it's not -AO)! The index regions do correlate the highest with US temps at Days 0 to +1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 55 minutes ago, Ji said: Seems like time to pull the plug. Nothing is working Pull the plug on a storm 6-7 Days out??? Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 25 minutes ago, Ji said: It’s not though…. in about three-4 days, the storm will be developing You've said that for years and it's never really been a thing. I know what you're saying but I don't believe it's true. You're too easily influenced by bad runs. Even you have said the AI is trash but now it's affecting your mood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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