snowmagnet Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, yoda said: Correct... see below I think that hole is over Ji... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I think we want is fast. The blocking is going to drop in. We need a quick hit. Or we get suppressed. the flow is too suppressive overall for a quick relatively weak STJ wave to get it done...we need it to slow down and phase with that trailing NS TPV lobe tail. That's the path. It's worked before, Dec 2009 was that kind of progression. This wouldn't have that kind of upside I don't think but talking about storm type. The upside on a faster disconnected unphased wave is pretty low...probably 3-6" max and I'm willing to kick that in hopes of a big dog. It's not like we didn't get any snow this season...lets go big or go home here. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So if eastern NC and southern VA score then does that mean that we still have a chance at those 2ft+ snows in future winters? 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I'm willing to kick that in hopes of a big dog. Got it. I am down with all or nothing at this point. Lets do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, yoda said: Correct... see below This hobby sucks. F all that dark gray stupid stuff. Can’t even get digital snow anymore 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mappy said: This hobby sucks. F all that dark gray stupid stuff. Can’t even get digital snow anymore Damn. We lost Mappy!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: So if eastern NC and southern VA score then does that mean that we still have a chance at those 2ft+ snows in future winters? People can make fun of it but it's a really good point. The death of Winter on the East Coast is highly exaggerated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, clskinsfan said: Damn. We lost Mappy!! I’m in the same mind frame as @WVclimo at this point. I’ll bow out and find joy elsewhere if I’m gonna be adding another 2” to my total while others jackpot again 3 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, mappy said: I’m in the same mind frame as @WVclimo at this point. I’ll bow out and find joy elsewhere if I’m gonna be adding another 2” to my total while others jackpot again I have never seen this side of you, I’m shocked. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I have never seen this side of you, I’m shocked. Oof yeah. It’s unbecoming of me. I’ll stop whining. Have a good evening. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 This hobby sucks. F all that dark gray stupid stuff. Can’t even get digital snow anymore You sound like ji. Get a grip 2 17 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z a little too progressive for my liking compared to 12z. that isn't progressive. PNA is stronger and there is a strong closed low over MN. the low will pivot and bring PVA up 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: that isn't progressive. PNA is stronger and there is a strong closed low over MN. the low will pivot and bring PVA up It better! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 I think I like the 6 hour snowfall at the end of the 18z Eps a little better than the 12z, but it's close. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 7 minutes ago, Ji said: You sound like ji. Get a grip This MF is the ultimate troll man. Well done Ji. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 12 minutes ago, mappy said: I’m in the same mind frame as @WVclimo at this point. I’ll bow out and find joy elsewhere if I’m gonna be adding another 2” to my total while others jackpot again Never thought I'd see the day when Mappy loses it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 The problem with the storm is, we are rapidly running out of time if things don’t get better in the next 24 to 36 hours we are toast 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 29 minutes ago, mappy said: This hobby sucks. F all that dark gray stupid stuff. Can’t even get digital snow anymore Just go cuddle up on the couch with your hubby, throw some ice cubes on the floor, and go watch your wedding video. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z a little too progressive for my liking compared to 12z. Disagree with this. PNA is more robust at 18z, the vort is stronger, and the heights out ahead are higher. Maybe our definitions of progressive dont jive. Less of a dig maybe but I think it could just be a hair slower. The blocking overtop is even stronger 18z. Again, might be getting ready to go apeshit after this, we just can't know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: that isn't progressive. PNA is stronger and there is a strong closed low over MN. the low will pivot and bring PVA up Just saw this and agree 1000% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 5 hours ago, Heisy said: The second event feb 9-11 2010 was sort of like that. This event has more southern proponent ahead of it I think . thanks for the suggestion, looking at era5 looks like it did have a tpv phase - kicker vort dug and amplified the western ridge which lead to a tpv lobe digging all the way down and phasing w/ the other wave, roll it forward and... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 13 minutes ago, Ji said: The problem with the storm is, we are rapidly running out of time if things don’t get better in the next 24 to 36 hours we are toast What needs to get better on each model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 17 minutes ago, Ji said: The problem with the storm is, we are rapidly running out of time if things don’t get better in the next 24 to 36 hours we are toast Wow, wth did i sleep thru? Meteorologists perfected modeling 6 days out now? I missed that AMS headline apparently. Thanks for the hot take dude. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: What needs to get better on each model It depends what you want. If you want a front runner with 2-4 for all of us you want it to speed up. So we dont get skipped. If you want a complete bomb you want it to slow down and phase. Much less likely. But lets fucking big dog hunt at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 2 hours ago, IronTy said: I can't lie to you about your chances....but you have my sympathies. Thanks Ash. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Just now, cbmclean said: Thanks Ash. At least one person out there got it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 Disagree with this. PNA is more robust at 18z, the vort is stronger, and the heights out ahead are higher. Maybe our definitions of progressive dont jive. Less of a dig maybe but I think it could just be a hair slower. The blocking overtop is even stronger 18z. Again, might be getting ready to go apeshit after this, we just can't know.I do see what Mitch is saying the entire trough and ULL are farther E. The farther W you’d assume would benefit in giving us more room for it to develop. Hard to know what would have happened beyond 144. It’ll be different in a few hours anyway. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JVscotch Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 1 minute ago, Heisy said: I do see what Mitch is saying the entire trough and ULL are farther E. The farther W you’d assume would benefit in giving us more room for it to develop. Hard to know what would have happened beyond 144. It’ll be different in a few hours anyway. . Yes and no. One way to look at it is the kicker remains in place and even though the main closed low is a bit further east, there is now more separation between it and the kicker. So possibly this gives it room to dig enough prior to the coast to bring up a strengthening low. It’s why the ridge is better as well. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 We just need a Mitch bomb saying the Ai ticked W . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 14 Share Posted February 14 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: We just need a Mitch bomb saying the Ai ticked W . it did not. Glancing blow I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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