87storms Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just loop it from here…vorts up top are all over the place…https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=us&pkg=z500_vort&runtime=2025021318&fh=132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. Until it gets a grip and stabilizes for a few runs with one solution I’m not going to sweat the gfs much. I’d be way more upset of the other guidance which has been more consistent went that way 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, IronTy said: I'm not worried. North Carolina isn't going to get a 2ft snowstorm in late February. You need to re educate yourself a little. March 2, 1980- Elizabeth City , 25 inches of snow. That's a little over 2 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. Until or gets a grip and stabilizes for a few runs with one solution I’m not going to swear the gfs much. I’d be way more upset of the other guidance which has been more consistent went that way I'm definitely gonna swear it. Fucking piece of shit. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Subtle improvements on gefs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Ji said: Subtle improvements on gefs See, at least Ji sees what matters the most at this point. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Line eem up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 This thread got quiet real fast. Unhappy hour GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs ends this run with a final parting middle finger to inland Mid Atlantic https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025021318&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gfs ends this run with a final parting middle finger to inland Mid Atlantic https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=prateptype_cat-imp&rh=2025021318&fh=384&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 That sucks plus, High pressure areas are not what they use to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z AI compared to 6Z Tuck that bitch a touch more man. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro looks pretty similar to Ukie at 144. I also like how the kicker backed up a bit, beyond 144 probably fun. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Heisy said: Euro looks pretty similar to Ukie at 144. I also like how the kicker backed up a bit, beyond 144 probably fun . Yup. Ridge out west was more stout because of that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. I think we want is fast. The blocking is going to drop in. We need a quick hit. Or we get suppressed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Terpeast said: Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. 2 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude Gefs doubled down on snowfall in eastern NC however vs 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gefs hinting at a more tucked solution. It starts swinging further south, but actually ends up a tick closer to the coast as it gains latitude Yah, WB 18Z GEFS looks better than I thought it would. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Well I see you guys blew happy hour GFS. What the hell happened!? Oh the jokes we could make. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs doubled down on snowfall in eastern NC however vs 12z. Correct... see below 18 minutes ago, RIC Airport said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It just changed its timing on the STj wave by 24 hours, more in line with other guidance there, but it’s all over the place with the NS H5 features. Until or gets a grip and stabilizes for a few runs with one solution I’m not going to swear the gfs much. I’d be way more upset of the other guidance which has been more consistent went that way if this was the other way around with the GFS/GEFS only showing something and everything else relatively unenthused, the GFS would be launched to Pluto 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, Heisy said: Euro looks pretty similar to Ukie at 144. I also like how the kicker backed up a bit, beyond 144 probably fun . ECMWF looks just like the 12z EPS. nice to see 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, frd said: That sucks plus, High pressure areas are not what they use to be. As modeled there is strong and plentiful Arctic HP to our N and NW next week. Cold air will be in place. The thermal boundary will be displaced along/off the SE coast. Pretty solid signal for a coastal storm- exact details on the evolution and proximity to the coast yet to be worked out. 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: As modeled there is strong and plentiful Arctic HP to our N and NW next week. Cold air will be in place. The thermal boundary will be displaced along/off the SE coast. Pretty solid signal for a coastal storm- exact details on the evolution and proximity to the coast yet to be worked out. Agree. But those of us to the NW are fighting timing. Too much arctic cold push screws us bad AGAIN. And can actually screw everyone in this subforum. We can easily get skipped while New England and Long Island get completely crushed. Want the Coastal to pop in SC. Or we are pretty much done. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: ECMWF looks just like the 12z EPS. nice to see I'd say it has a better handle on the 500mb pattern than the Gfs or CMC. It's at least looked kinda similar the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 40 minutes ago, stormy said: You need to re educate yourself a little. March 2, 1980- Elizabeth City , 25 inches of snow. That's a little over 2 ft. April 3 1776- Manchester, MD 47 inches of snow. That’s almost 4 ft. 2 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, clskinsfan said: Agree. But those of us to the NW are fighting timing. Too much arctic cold push screws us bad AGAIN. Could screw all of us and snow in SE VA and the Carolinas as the HH GEFS suggests. We just can't know yet. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Could screw all of us and snow in SE VA and the Carolinas as the HH GEFS suggests. We just can't know yet. Yep. That is the skip. SE of us gets hit. And NE of us gets completely buried. Welcome to MA winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 18z a little too progressive for my liking compared to 12z. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, ravensrule said: April 3 1776- Manchester, MD 47 inches of snow. That’s almost 4 ft. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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