frd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, csnavywx said: Looks similar. Ceiling on this one could be a bit higher. In my experience, the big dogs are usually pretty synoptically obvious and show up on guidance earlier than most events. Solution stability brought on by larger, more stable parts. The PV streamer that comes off the Hudson Bay TPV and the timing of the southern stream shortwave are probably the parts with the biggest slippage, but given that these are currently large, stable systems means it's rather unlikely all of this is a hallucination. Appears this might be the first legit warning level threat for areas further North and Northeast this winter season. Going to see what the TPV and the severe - AO can do. Should be very interesting to observe in the days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 38 minutes ago, NVAwx said: Precipitation is forecast to exit the region on Monday , but river flooding could linger through Monday evening as water slowly drains through the river system. Below normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions are favored through the middle parts of next week. The next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday when a coastal low may bring coastal low to the region with wintry precipitation possible. - LWX discussion (2/13/25 @ 2:41 pm) FUJIWHARA!?! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Sterling has snow forecasted for. Central md..... Kinda Ballsy for 6 days out Pretty sure all those point and click forecasts are automated from model output. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Pretty sure all those point and click forecasts are automated from model output. True but they also mentioned the coastal in the disco. So there's that lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 FWIW ... JMA is on board 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: Pretty sure all those point and click forecasts are automated from model output. Pretty sure. Snow was in the long range forecast last week for this week, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: FWIW ... JMA is on board You can add the CFS to the pile as well 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 No one even mentioned the euro gave us some Snow from a clipper on the 25 then was lining up another snow for March 1 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No one even mentioned the euro gave us some Snow from a clipper on the 25 then was lining up another snow for March 1 Great White Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: You can add the CFS to the pile as well Niceeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Weeklies extend our window until about March 10. It remains somewhat “chilly” after but it has a waves to our NW followed by cold shots look to me once past March 10. But this looks good Mar 1-8 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 We pulling out the obscure models. LFG! 2 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: We pulling out the obscure models. LFG! the Australian is a whiff 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-053-054-505-506- WVZ052-053-140300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250214T0300Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley- Jefferson- 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. & 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: the Australian is a whiff Didn't even know they had a model lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Looks like a great spring New England ski season imo, for those who care, me. New England has been getting crushed lately and VT resorts are building a deep base now. And signs are for a reasonably chilly March not a sudden thaw. Once to April on sunny days it feels great no matter the pattern just some years they don’t have a ton of snow left to enjoy it. This year looks good for April ski season at Killington, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf. Stowe too but I don’t do Vail owned resorts anymore until they make some major management changes. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Wrong thread on the obs stuff! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 12Z AI compared to 6Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-053-054-505-506- WVZ052-053-140300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250214T0300Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley- Jefferson- 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. & why is this in this thread? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z AI compared to 6Z i like the WB AI a top better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Looks like a great spring New England ski season imo, for those who care, me. New England has been getting crushed lately and VT resorts are building a deep base now. And signs are for a reasonably chilly March not a sudden thaw. Once to April on sunny days it feels great no matter the pattern just some years they don’t have a ton of snow left to enjoy it. This year looks good for April ski season at Killington, Sugarbush and Sugarloaf. Stowe too but I don’t do Vail owned resorts anymore until they make some major management changes. i heard ski resorts in colorado are a disaster. Extremely long lines...understaffed and basically you pay alot of money to wait and not ski 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Terpeast said: Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come its all just artificial 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z AI compared to 6Z Seems to be 12-24 hours quicker than the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, WVclimo said: I think Jan 1996 was close. Yes it snowed lightly here for about 6 hours then went heavy for almost 24 here for that event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Ji said: i heard ski resorts in colorado are a disaster. Extremely long lines...understaffed and basically you pay alot of money to wait and not ski Yea Vail owned mountains (epic pass) are a mess. People at Park City over new years weekend were hiking back up the mountain the lift line was so long. They under staff, didn’t use the pass $ to make upgrades the way Ikon mountains have, then started a labor fight with their workers for refusing some modest demands. They’re just a mess. Shame some great resorts being mismanaged. I love Breckenridge and Stowe but won’t ski them again until major changes happen. Then west south of Utah is also having a crappy snow year. Taos in NM has like 70” total right now. This makes the issue worse by limiting terrain they can open. I was thinking of a trip there but not this year. Just going to hit up VT and ME a couple times in March and April. I’m going to post a summary of my Revelstoke trip. Y’all need to get out there. Even non skiers it’s a snowmobile Mecca also but you ski it’s got to be a bucket list thing. I skied all week with no lines at all. Worst wait was 10 mins at the main lift on a powder morning. Most of the time no line at all. Snowed 14” while we were there and they had 250” before we got there. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Nice NW tick!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Big jump west by the AI. Hopefully a sign of things to come Tucked 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EstorilM Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 DCZ001-MDZ003>006-008-011-013-014-503>508-VAZ028-031-053-054-505-506- WVZ052-053-140300- /O.EXB.KLWX.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-250214T0300Z/ District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Prince Georges-Anne Arundel- Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Northwest Harford-Southeast Harford-Frederick VA-Clarke-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Western Loudoun-Eastern Loudoun-Berkeley- Jefferson- 348 PM EST Thu Feb 13 2025 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING... * WHAT...Northwest winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. * WHERE...DC, central, north central, northeast, and northern Maryland, northern and northwest Virginia, and panhandle West Virginia. * WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening. * IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. Use extra caution. & Just randomly gust to 35 after being basically dead calm all day. I knew the front was coming through but this is powerful - must have caught LWX off guard too, no mention of headlines in any recent disco and they issued the advisory after the winds hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: No because there's no place to sit off the coast. Did you see the rest of the AI run? Woah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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