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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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9 minutes ago, adelphi_sky said:

Has there ever been a snowstorm that sat off the coast and produced at least 20 hours of heavy snow before it cleared the area? 

Edit: seems like when we get these setups, the storm is over in under 24 hours.

I think Jan 1996 was close.

IMG_8804.thumb.jpeg.3a8d77fecb5f54093072926bd611f408.jpeg

 

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Spring is definitely coming. Not only does it feel warm out but the sun felt hot on my face walking to the car. 
 
Give me one legit 8”+ snowstorm and I’m ready. 

I don’t like how your standards are falling for what type of storm pleases you

You’ve become jaded lol
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Precipitation is forecast to exit the region on Monday , but river
flooding could linger through Monday evening as water slowly drains
through the river system. Below normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are favored through the middle parts of next week. The
next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday when a
coastal low may bring coastal low to the region with wintry
precipitation possible.

- LWX discussion (2/13/25 @ 2:41 pm)

FUJIWHARA!?!

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10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Spring is definitely coming. Not only does it feel warm out but the sun felt hot on my face walking to the car. 
 

Give me one legit 8”+ snowstorm and I’m ready. 

Enjoy that sun angle now and curse it later ...

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6 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

That trajectory reminds me a lot of 2/6-7/03. 

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/07-Feb-03.html

NJSnow-07Feb03.png

Looks similar. Ceiling on this one could be a bit higher.

In my experience, the big dogs are usually pretty synoptically obvious and show up on guidance earlier than most events. Solution stability brought on by larger, more stable parts. The PV streamer that comes off the Hudson Bay TPV and the timing of the southern stream shortwave are probably the parts with the biggest slippage, but given that these are currently large, stable systems means it's rather unlikely all of this is a hallucination.

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10 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

That trajectory reminds me a lot of 2/6-7/03. 

https://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2003/07-Feb-03.html

NJSnow-07Feb03.png

I remember that storm from the coverage of it on Channel 13 in Baltimore.  They had a live traffic segment from their chopper traffic reporter. It hadn't started snowing yet imby, but he showed a pic outside the chopper and the chopper lights illuminated decent snow falling where he was 1500' or so up. 

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18 minutes ago, NVAwx said:
Precipitation is forecast to exit the region on Monday , but river
flooding could linger through Monday evening as water slowly drains
through the river system. Below normal temperatures and mostly dry
conditions are favored through the middle parts of next week. The
next chance for precipitation will be Wednesday into Thursday when a
coastal low may bring coastal low to the region with wintry
precipitation possible.

- LWX discussion (2/13/25 @ 2:41 pm)

FUJIWHARA!?!

Coastal low is so strong it was mentioned twice!

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14 minutes ago, Ji said:


I don’t like how your standards are falling for what type of storm pleases you

You’ve become jaded lol

lol 

It’s about potential. If we were in a Nino I might have a higher bar. But 8” has always been the bar of what I think feels like a big snow. But if it’s supposed to be a 20” storm and I get fringed with 8 that’s different so it just depends.  But in general 8+ is a big snow, 4-7 is a moderate storm and 1-3 is minor and I generally meh those.  But I can even enjoy a 1-3” event if it’s part of building a snowpack. Know you don’t care about that. But a 1-3” that’s gone a day later does nada for me. In every case meeting reasonable potential is more important than the number. 

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