IronTy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ugh the ICON. I can't deal with a other SoMD jackpot storm this year in my backyard, I'm tired of shoveling snow. 1 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Just give me the ICON and call it a winter We don't even need a yank or a banger with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Like a couple tenths… but every tenth of an inch matters! You're so young in your weather tracking life, are you saying this from experience?. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, ravensrule said: You're so young in your weather tracking life, are you saying this from experience?. There has been lots of careful measuring to make sure my measurements match others in the area… so every little bit helps. Slant stick if you have to. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: There has been lots of careful measuring to make sure my measurements match others in the area… so every little bit helps. Slant stick if you have to. Thank the lord you don't have any shortcomings. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB EPS 24 hour snow probs.3, 6 and 12 inches. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z EPS is an impressive signal for 1 week out. Here are the member low tracks & 48 hour snow mean to capture timing differences. Some really low pressures with some of those individual member lows. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z EPS is an impressive signal for 1 week out. Here are the member low tracks & 48 hour snow mean to capture timing differences. Some really low pressures with some of those individual member lows. I see some tucked lows in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: Idk, Ukie just might do a 1/25/00 with that H5. I agree. And I think we are walking a razors edge here between a come NNE up the coast or be whisked ENE. One tiny shift with that h5 configuration would spell huge surface changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Heckuva 24hr signal 50th percentile good too That's the trajectory I want to see...also the jack zone...When 95 is the jack heading into the final end game us northerners are usually fine...its when the jack zone is southeast of DC that we are in trouble. That right here is exactly where I want things at this range. Now just wish the GEFS would get on board...but I'd rather have the EPS if I can only have one of em. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is even more amped than 00z. insane for a mean at this range That's what I'm saying...this is really all or nothing imho. We are either going full-on phase with the tpv at the proper time or timing is tucked and we get a minor/moderate event that scoots ene as it grazes us. The latter would fit PSUs thinking also ie Nina climo, big storms, seasonal trends etc. If I had to bet I would also side with the latter. But once the tpv is in play, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Hell yes. Finally some good trends for this one. Love to see a cluster of lows just offshore popping up on the EPS. PSU asked for amped last night… that’s some voodoo shit if ive ever seen it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: 12z EPS is an impressive signal for 1 week out. Here are the member low tracks & 48 hour snow mean to capture timing differences. Some really low pressures with some of those individual member lows. STRONG MECS signal... I'll take the 996 just off Cape Map please. 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I'm rooting for the Ukmet/con 500mb setup and betting on the surface low traking further west. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 To be clear I am NOT rooting for DC to get screwed...there is a path with a storm like this (unlike those progressive waves with their narrow west to east win zones) for the whole region to win...except Richmond F those guys. No seriously no ill will but unless we get some crazy Jan 2000 type full phase capture negative tilt tuck scenario its almost impossible to get a Richmond to the PA line win... But it is very possible to get a DC metro to PA line MECS result if the snow QPF max is centered near DC, places up here get higher ratios and oragraphic assistance and that's how you get a total win for almost everyone in here...again F richmond if they wanted snow they could move, kidding, unless they get snow and I don't and then not kidding. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I agree. And I think we are walking a razors edge here between a come NNE up the coast or be whisked ENE. One tiny shift with that h5 configuration would spell huge surface changes. My take, it was gonna be super close...I think anywhere east of 95 was gonna get crushed, full belt to a$$! for places NW of 95 it was close...the storm was about to go nuts but how fast...the CCB was going to have to get cranking real quick and bend more NNW then N or NE from where it ended which is not impossible, it happens in full capture scenarios but how fast it happens would be the key to places like where I am and you are. It would have to go full Jan 2000 or Feb 78 for it to work...but that run was about to be something close to that outcome honestly. The bigger issue is how likely is it to actually go nuclear not just on a model run, remmeber the UK has a tendancy to do that crazy over amp thing sometimes. It's teased us with some storms like this before...remember it had that one run of the coastal bomb in 2018 where it got a foot of snow back to Hagerstown. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: To be clear I am NOT rooting for DC to get screwed...there is a path with a storm like this (unlike those progressive waves with their narrow west to east win zones) for the whole region to win...except Richmond F those guys. No seriously no ill will but unless we get some crazy Jan 2000 type full phase capture negative tilt tuck scenario its almost impossible to get a Richmond to the PA line win... But it is very possible to get a DC metro to PA line MECS result if the snow QPF max is centered near DC, places up here get higher ratios and oragraphic assistance and that's how you get a total win for almost everyone in here...again F richmond if they wanted snow they could move, kidding, unless they get snow and I don't and then not kidding. One thing I learned when I was in college and used to listen to radio stations for weather info from Boston, Cleveland, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Richmond, Charlotte and Pokomoke City near Ocean City, for DC and BWI to get nailed and stay all snow, we need Richmond to mix to zr or sleet and Sby to go to rain. All snow in either of those places and we either completely fail or get fringed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Like 4-5 18”+ hits in the EPS members. Also didn’t see it mentioned but the 12z GEPS wasn’t bad. 4-5” mean for 95-SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I know the northern tier folks would take that 986 off Cape May. Woof 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Team RIC 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12z euro snowfall kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 25 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I see some tucked lows in there i see more untucked lows 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 AI further west. Guess at 2-4" N&W and 4-8" I95, 6-10" eastern shore and Sby. Remember, it's a rough guess. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, mitchnick said: AI further west. Guess at 2-4" N&W and 4-8" I95, 6-10" eastern shore and Sby. Remember, it's a rough guess. How much of an improvement is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, T. August said: How much of an improvement is that? Lots. Missed north and west last 2 runs. There's more. Another similar event to next week next Saturday and then one for us inland folks on Thursday 27th. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 How much of an improvement is that?Seems a lot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Has there ever been a snowstorm that sat off the coast and produced at least 20 hours of heavy snow before it cleared the area? Edit: seems like when we get these setups, the storm is over in under 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, adelphi_sky said: Has there ever been a snowstorm that sat off the coast and produced at least 20 hours of heavy snow before it cleared the area? No because there's no place to sit off the coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HornetsHomer91 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 genuine question, what was a similar storm to this setup with TPV interaction(to this extent) being involved? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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