February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Our best posters have been saying forever our best window for the rest of winter is Feb. 15 - Mar. 15, so anyone canceling winter was silly. 
 

After Feb. 8th or so has looked really active on the ens for a bit - so I’m interested starting then. I can’t really buy the GFS’s output for Wednesday yet, but I’m hankering for something to track. Need a good distraction right now. 

Concur, there are a few things brewing and that’s on pg.1a of the inner weenie handbook preface.

[IronTy]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you're wondering why so wet in February, this link is the 200mb jet starting at 0 hours on the Eps. Scroll through to the end of the run. It's a firehouse across the country. Gefs is the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025020100&fh=0

This is good sign for the drought.  Hopefully February is a pattern change in storm tracks and we can score wet, either rain or snow is fine by me.

[mitchnick]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

You probably have to assume it’s wrong, but 6z GFS is still super wintry on Wednesday, even if it isn’t snow. 6z EURO was a slight cave towards it and threatens some light icing in favored spots. 

Add the Icon to the Gfs.

[rjvanals]

GFS is Sleety and Snowy Wed 

[NorthArlington101]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Add the Icon to the Gfs.

Step in the right direction but GFS remains alone as genuinely impactful… it’s now a nice snow event for NMD, sleet for DC/NOVA, and ice further south. 
 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, rjvanals said:

GFS is Sleety and Snowy Wed 

Idk maybe it’s out to lunch but it is actually cold at the surface and ICON/Euro made moves to it. Hmm. 

[NorthArlington101]

CAD holds through 120 - nice ice storm on the back of the sleet/snow. 

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, dailylurker said:

It's not the fourm. It's the fact that no human or computer has any idea what will happen after day 5. The models are showing basically everything from warm and dry to cold and wet. Hopefully we'll actually have an idea over the next few days. My guts says climo Feb. NW will get snow. 95 east you know the drill.

Snow climo for Feb is pretty darn good for the lowlands too. 

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

CAD holds through 120 - nice ice storm on the back of the sleet/snow. 

[CAPE]

The GFS is kind of by itself with the more diffuse shortwave energy and flatter/colder solution.

[bncho]

If we get a 2/5-7 ice storm I’d be satisfied with winter.

 

[mitchnick]

Incoming on gfs at 240hrs

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Incoming on gfs at 240hrs

Kinda falls apart - but that’s the timeframe the EPS likes a lot. Hoping we are entering an active tracking period, at least 

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Incoming on gfs at 240hrs

Ughh cold push to strong. Changes every run.

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Kinda falls apart - but that’s the timeframe the EPS likes a lot. Hoping we are entering an active tracking period, at least 

2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary. 

[mitchnick]

Ggem is snow to mix for 2/10-2/11. Better north.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary. 

EURO was good last night for threat after threat… kept us in the game over and over. Could obviously go 0/5, but at least we keep swinging 

[mitchnick]

Gfs seems to have the boundary 75-100 miles further south from the Gem.

[bncho]

GFS trying to cook up something for 2/14. Jesus Christ there’s a lot of chances.

[brooklynwx99]

ENS and OP runs have a lot of chances with the boundary nearby and lots of moisture, even before the Scandi ridge tries to retrograde. could be looking at a pretty active period

[bncho]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2/10-2/20 could be one of the snowiest periods in 15 years IF we're on the right side of the boundary. 

With your huge IF we’d probably rival 13-14 snow. Hopefully your IF comes true.

[psuhoffman]

18 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

GEFS continues to look different.. that low pressure SE of Greenland with N. Pacific High pressure is -AAM, which is a global negative angular momentum state that usually takes some time to change

I'm still going with no snow for 15+ days

I was talking about where we’re heading about Feb 20. Which is 20 days away. Which is more than 15 

8 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

EPS has mostly a -EPO.. It's very different from the GEFS which is about 1000 miles south with the Pacific High pressure. EPS is legit Alaskan block.. GEFS has not been showing this and has had -PNA for 3+ days. The two are very different right now. 

Why are you going with the warmer less accurate guidance over the colder more accurate guidance? 

[CAPE]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I was talking about where we’re heading about Feb 20. Which is 20 days away. Which is more than 15 

Why are you going with the warmer less accurate guidance over the colder more accurate guidance? 

Easy.

Hug the one with a -PNA.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Easy.

Hug the one with a -PNA.

lol 

Im less sure what happens the next 15 days. Models have a history of teasing us at range in a TNH pattern only to shift NW come game time. But this year does feel different so I’m holding out hope but I’m more confident in where the pattern is heading after regardless of how these waves the next 2 weeks go. 
 

Chuck seems oddly invested in a warmer outcome for some reason. 

[frd]

Its coming   

The AO is going negative, atmospheric river for the month of Feb and early March. TPV in Se Canada and the cherry on top -  a PV split with immediate impacts per Bamm.  

 

https://x.com/bamwxcom/status/1885678378562310475

Buckle up friends. A total SPLIT of the stratospheric #Polarvortex is showing up in all the data. Splits from the top down deliver impacts quick. Winter is coming back with a vengeance late month into March.

The troposphere is driving the heat flux into the stratosphere leading to the split so we’d get cold from the initial tropospheric forcing anyway. What then happens with the split is blocking sets up and allows it to linger as seen below with all model NAO/AO.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Idk maybe it’s out to lunch but it is actually cold at the surface and ICON/Euro made moves to it. Hmm. 

Google is still showing the 5th as being entirely in the 40s and the 6th with a high of 67 for DC.

[Heisy]

Wow…




.

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Google is still showing the 5th as being entirely in the 40s and the 6th with a high of 67 for DC.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Wow…




.

I'm glad to see you posting Heisy.  When I heard them say that jet crashed in NE Philly, I  was worried about you.

[brooklynwx99]

Scandi block getting stronger on the GEFS. much more of a wave breaking signal over the N ATL