mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Idk, Ukie just might do a 1/25/00 with that H5. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 BTW wanted to post what I've noticed over the years in terms of trajectory of storms on guidance and when they are most and least likely to adjust north v south. The angles are just symptoms on the models of the underlying reasons but since its easier to just see the angle of precip then to analyze those factors for most people its a cheat code kind of thing. The lines above represent the angle of the precip. Green is the angle most likely to adjust north. This is typical of a wave approaching from the SW, its mature enough to get precip up into the TN valley and its also gaining some amplitude as represented by the fact the precip is gaining latitude east of the mountains some. This combo is the most likely wave to adjust northwest. Guidance most often underestimates the northward extent of precip and the ability of the wave to push the thermal boundary north as it amplifies in this type of setup. Red is not a setup that often adjusts for the better if you are north of the precip and want that "north trend". Red often indicates a wave that is not amplifying, or not amplifying enough to offset a hostile cold press on the north of it. This trajectory is most likely to adjust south actually. Even in extreme examples like Feb 5 2010, it didn't hurt us, but that is an example that adjusted south some at the end...my friend in north central NJ was expecting 6-10" on the northern fringe and got 1". That storm, even as strong as it was, made absolutely no northern adjustment the final 48 hours and if anything adjusted south some at the last minute. The two waves this year that were fails for northern MD had this trajectory also. The two March 2014 storms both trended south some from 72 hours out and they were also examples of this trajectory. January 2019 was another example. This in my experience are least likely to trend north and are more likely to sink south some at the end. The Orange line is a problem because systems tend to adjust NORTH not WEST. A west trend actually requires a faster developing system and that actually goes against model bias that often phases and begins the amplification process of a late developing east coast storm too soon. 9/10 this trajectory will not end will if you are west of the precip on guidance 72 hours out...it probably won't adjust west significantly. There are exceptions to these 3 rules...nothing is 100%, wish it was that easy...Jan 2000 is a great example that broke the orange line rule. But these are generally when we can expect a north v a south trend MOST often based on the trajectory, which again is a cheat to factors causing that trajectory which make a north v south adjustement on guidance more or less likely. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 42 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC - better than nothing (unless you'd be the one getting nothing) Models to N/W crew: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 GEFS continues to favor something suppressed pretty far southeast/OTS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 I feel like the Euro should be decent based on Snow maps and trajectory of snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro going the Ukie route 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 4-6 inch strip through....DC so far and Baltimore. It looks S and E like the GFS so far. 2-4 NW of the cities Yeah, it's done. More to the S and E 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Euro going the Ukie route It's not , But we got plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Anything in our area is only from this storm 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I feel like the Euro should be decent based on Snow maps and trajectory of snow It was orange 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Anything in our area is only from this storm Fucking SV. I think it only uses 10:1, that's why Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Anything in our area is only from this stormThat map is enraging. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 yup. Only uses 10:1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, stormtracker said: yup. Only uses 10:1 So basically the only advantage SV has is the speed? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I’m pretty impressed how decent it snows even with the late phase on the euro, good sign. Really hope we could find a way to get a closer tuck . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: So basically the only advantage SV has is the speed? Lol Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 extremely disappointing run---but there is hope for better outcomes 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Heisy said: I’m pretty impressed how decent it snows even with the late phase on the euro, good sign. Really hope we could find a way to get a closer tuck . If it's like the Ukie, and I haven't looked closely, north and west precip may be from tpv interaction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's not , But we got plenty of time. Agree. It does try for a late phase for New England but that western energy coming in so quick keeps everything progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: If it's like the Ukie, and I haven't looked closely, north and west precip may be from tpv interaction. Yes, enhanced precipitation to our west 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging. Yeah, this is where I'm at right now. We have room for improvement...many more runs to go 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, this is where I'm at right now. We have room for improvement...many more runs to go What I really like about this is that we have deep cold present at the start, won't be fretting start temps/start time/sun angle as much if we're in the low to mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: So every global gives us something? Seems like a solid 12z suite. Hopefully eps is encouraging. With few exceptions, this is how a lot of our big storms looked 5-6 days out. 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Don't forget about us poor folks in the middle who are on the line of missing the jack to our SE but close enough to get a more respectable total vs the desolate souls to the NW. Middle children need love tooI moved to Leesburg to get closer to you and to get more snow. Each goal has betrayed me 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yeah, this is where I'm at right now. We have room for improvement...many more runs to goThere is also room for disprovement lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Models certainly holding steady on the idea of an extremely cold storm. Never gets above 20 up here at any point. Quite impressive for a daytime storm later in February. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Ji said: There is also room for disprovement lol I always love your optimism. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: There is also room for disprovement lol Your literary prowess intrigues me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: With few exceptions, this is how a lot of our big storms looked 5-6 days out. Yup was just thinking that. We’re only ~5 days out from this developing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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