mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: depends... but I doubt anyone in MD NW of 95 wants to see any model run that shows the snow SE of DC like that. Sorry but its kinda traumatic at this point. I would rather see a storm with precip type issues right now, both given this setup and given how this season has gone. Euro had 1 great run a week before yesterday's storm so my gut says we'll lose the amped storm with N&W doing best. In fact, gun to head, I'll be shocked if I get more than 40-50% of DC or more than 50-60% of BWI. Seasonal trends are a biatch. But if the pattern holds into March, I could see us scoring big and the cities getting mix/rain. Speculation by me based on history fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 CMC - better than nothing (unless you'd be the one getting nothing) 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Usually, not always, seems like a winter storm track likes to repeat itself...really is hard if not impossible to get all of us a foot of snow with the same storm....give me an intense storm and let the chips fall.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: I will be honest I did not think it had a chance at getting even close to organized. It was kinda late doing it similar to the ICON (just not nearly as good of a result, obviously) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not sure anyone ever posted a GFS map without Saturday's "event"? I like how the purple pokes into Loudoun to say hi to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: not sure anyone ever posted a GFS map without Saturday's "event"? Not bad at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro had 1 great run a week before yesterday's storm so my gut says we'll lose the amped storm with N&W doing best. In fact, gun to head, I'll be shocked if I get more than 40-50% of DC or more than 50-60% of BWI. Seasonal trends are a biatch. But if the pattern holds into March, I could see us scoring big and the cities getting mix/rain. Speculation by me based on history fwiw. I dunno but it's almost unprecedented for the lower eastern shore to get more snow than me, there have been some seasons like this where I only get a little more then them...but if we were to get one more storm this season and it jacks that area again and fringes us...it would be something that has NEVER happened before in terms of a seasonal outcome. It's getting beyond just "seasonal trend" into the freaky unprecendented getting 5 heads in a row kinda territory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC - better than nothing (unless you'd be the one getting nothing) I would much rather nothing then that At least I wouldn't waste time tracking nothing...but if I waste a week tracking and that is the end result... like I said anything cute and furry better hide 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Usually, not always, seems like a winter storm track likes to repeat itself...really is hard if not impossible to get all of us a foot of snow with the same storm....give me an intense storm and let the chips fall.... name me one winter where every major storm jacked the same spot? I can't think of any! Even years where I felt I did worse WRT to climo than places to my SE there was at least more variance then this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would much rather nothing then that At least I wouldn't waste time tracking nothing...but if I waste a week tracking and that is the end result... like I said anything cute and furry better hide I’m usually pretty happy when I get snow. But seeing it fall for 18 straight hours on Tuesday to only eke out 2” while the eastern shore got slammed AGAIN wore me down. If models still look like this on Sunday, I’ll probably have to take a break from the board. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Usually, not always, seems like a winter storm track likes to repeat itself...really is hard if not impossible to get all of us a foot of snow with the same storm....give me an intense storm and let the chips fall.... Anything is possible, but if the NWS can issue probability forecasts, why can't I? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It's really only been 2 storms that jacked the same place...which isn't crazy for random chance. But a 3rd in a row? If we get 3 major storms this year and each has the exact same jack area...and its an unusual one at that given climo...that would be a first in my memory, maybe I'm forgetting a season that happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: name me one winter where every major storm jacked the same spot? I can't think of any! Even years where I felt I did worse WRT to climo than places to my SE there was at least more variance then this. We got ours 3 weeks ago when DC got next to nothing and BWI got 1". You and I got 6.5". We've had our fun this winter. Lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Some of us have gotten screwed all three times and would like a little win 12 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkstorm Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We got ours 3 weeks ago when DC got next to nothing and BWI got 1". You and I got 6.5". We've had our fun this winter. Lol DC has done fair amount better then other areas that are closer to M/D. No offense to DC crew but there are areas that have had crap luck this year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 21 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC - better than nothing (unless you'd be the one getting nothing) Right here... this has been the seasonal trend... However, this storm will come NW and the northern crew will be buried in snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Don't forget about us poor folks in the middle who are on the line of missing the jack to our SE but close enough to get a more respectable total vs the desolate souls to the NW. Middle children need love too 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 The N/W crew hasn't done nearly as well as DC and S/E. If we do get the PSU storm as long as I'm all wintry precip then I'll take 6" for the N/W crew to get 12". 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried. I'm not sure the majority of us are. At least not me. I just read a model. But yeah, there are a few here doing this and it's crazy this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: We got ours 3 weeks ago when DC got next to nothing and BWI got 1". You and I got 6.5". We've had our fun this winter. Lol Most of MD just south or east of me didn't get much from that. There is a dead zone in northeast MD that's really bad this year WRT climo, worse then the typical "dead zones" I can remember in recent years. But we have a month of snow season left to correct that...I am kind of expecting something to come along to even it out some. Not necessarily totally even out, because places SE of us probably get some more snow also...but if we get one more storm and its like the GGEM or GFS show right now...that would be just crazy for a seasonal snowfall pattern. Might be the worse screw job NE MD has ever had honestly if it went down that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I dunno, I don't get the hand wringing over the storm being too far SE. There have been multiple times this winter where a storm was modeled to miss us to the S or E a week out, only to have it slowly creep back NW. No, not far north enough to hit northern MD or west enough to put the jack over clskinsfan... but nevertheless a slight creep NW to get DC metro in the game. If this were 3-4 days away and the storm was still showing a miss to the SE, I'd be worried. I don't think we are worried about that area...I think those of us on the NW fringes of this region are the ones worried that it might do exactly that again. lol I'm not overly worried YET, but if in another day or two its still showing what it is now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: name me one winter where every major storm jacked the same spot? I can't think of any! Even years where I felt I did worse WRT to climo than places to my SE there was at least more variance then this. I get it, but it will be what it will be.... hey if the SE part of the DMV can still snow so can everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not sure the majority of us are. At least not me. I just read a model. But yeah, there are a few here doing this and it's crazy this far out. You gotta remember the reason why, though. The hand wringing is coming from those in the screw zone...not necessarily because the outcome of that run is believed, but just seeing the image can make your eye twitch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 UKmet looks just like the icon 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ukie really digs the trop PV and is capturing the coastal low as the run ends. Snow would definitely continue past that point. R/S line way south. HECS for RIC in progress. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 UKmet looks just like the iconDo you have it beyond 168? That was going to be a crush job especially for E sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: You gotta remember the reason why, though. The hand wringing is coming from those in the screw zone...not necessarily because the outcome of that run is believed, but just seeing the image can make your eye twitch... But it's 150+ hours out tho. I def wouldn't hand wring at this stage, especially with the models all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecasterx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Do you have it beyond 168? That was going to be a crush job especially for E sections I do not, Just based off looks of things seemed to match icon the best. Although Ukie does look like it was getting captured last frame as you can see precip all the way to ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: But it's 150+ hours out tho. I def wouldn't hand wring at this stage, especially with the models all over the place Indeed. That's the logical thing to do...but ya know, feelings and their lack of said logic . But seriously: It's a pretty good place to be at 150+ and nothing is showing a complete miss (waiting on the Euro, of course). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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