Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Gfs didn’t phase the N stream in and it still produced what it did. That’s a great sign.CMC looks more like the euro and other models with that... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Honestly, it's a bit early for everything to show a blizzard. It will never hold because there are just too many things that can go wrong imho. Maybe, but we are heading into the range where models have actually locked in on a general solution close to what the end result was. Obviously there will be some details that change but almost every event this year something close to the final outcome started to show across guidance around 140-150 hours out, then only fairly minor wobbles happened from then on it. I don't mind if they start to lock in on a mid atlantic MECS now...were not day 10+ anymore. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Heisy said: Gfs didn’t phase the N stream in and it still produced what it did. That’s a great sign. CMC looks more like the euro and other models with that.. . Was the "kicker" a little less of a problem this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: SNow is bad..looks like up to 4" for the cities and a bit more to the S and E. 2-4 for PSU land This may be the timeframe where the GFS is too far S and E. At least that's what I'm telling myself 5 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I'm seeing 6-8 on Pivotal Foot for OCMD. 4-6” for metros, less north, more SE. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe, but we are heading into the range where models have actually locked in on a general solution close to what the end result was. Obviously there will be some details that change but almost every event this year something close to the final outcome started to show across guidance around 140-150 hours out, then only fairly minor wobbles happened from then on it. I don't mind if they start to lock in on a mid atlantic MECS now...were not day 10+ anymore. We agree I think. They need to show a hit of some degree, light to blizzard. Just not all blizzards because that will never hold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Anyone got weenie maps? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, dailylurker said: Anyone got weenie maps? 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 8 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: I'm seeing 6-8 on Pivotal Ah...told yall, SV maps suck so bad. Always go with the weatherbell. Although the other day I called it right based on those shit maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, mitchnick said: That's everything on the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, mitchnick said: I'll take this 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Ah...told yall, SV maps suck so bad. Always go with the weatherbell. Although the other day I called it right based on those shit maps SV are straight 10:1 . It's a cold storm so Kuchera will show more always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'll take this This would come close to matching 09-10 in my neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sadly the GGEM sucks, disjointed mess with no snow even close to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Some of that is this Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, winter_warlock said: Some of that is this Saturday How's that? It's gonna be mostly rain isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ok, misses east again, but get's some snow up to us. It has a LOT more potential...look at the upper low to our NW...on the GFS is strung out and diffuse west to east over the top. That causes it to act more as a disruptor and blocking force rather than digging in and amplifying the wave. If that were to consolidate more around either lobe up there...preferable the further west one, that's how last nights Euro got it done...but either...get a more consolidated upper low that can amplify and cause ridging in front of it rather than stretch out and deamplify the flow...this would end up a bigger storm. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: How's that? It's gonna be mostly rain isn't it? This is gfs thru sunday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Heisy said: Gfs didn’t phase the N stream in and it still produced what it did. That’s a great sign. CMC looks more like the euro and other models with that.. . yea this is what I mean in my last post...the GFS is a mess with that upper feature and stretches it out which deamplifies the flow under it. If it looks more like the Euro/GGEM I think we get a bigger storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 GGEM not too bad at this range. Gets it together, but is gonna slide off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Sadly the GGEM sucks, disjointed mess with no snow even close to us Doesn't look like that to me....very close to a big hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I don’t believe that Saturday morning stuff on the GFS and NAM at all. Hope I’m wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, WxUSAF said: I don’t believe that Saturday morning stuff on the GFS and NAM at all. Hope I’m wrong. I don't beleive ut either but it does add to the total snowfall maps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Foot for OCMD. 4-6” for metros, less north, more SE. Every cute furry woodland creature better stay the F away from me if we get one more snowstorm with a jack SE of 95. 2 13 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: 12Z ICON: sorry don't know how to get rid of the symbols. Image Image Yes, it is the ICON and WAY out there, but that is 'a beaut Clark'! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Considering it's 6 days out the cmc/gem don't look bad at all!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 12 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Sadly the GGEM sucks, disjointed mess with no snow even close to us 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, winter_warlock said: Considering it's 6 days out the cmc/gem don't look bad at all!!! depends... but I doubt anyone in MD NW of 95 wants to see any model run that shows the snow SE of DC like that. Sorry but its kinda traumatic at this point. I would rather see a storm with precip type issues right now, both given this setup and given how this season has gone. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GGEM not too bad at this range. Gets it together, but is gonna slide off the coast I will be honest I did not think it had a chance at getting even close to organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: depends... but I doubt anyone in MD NW of 95 wants to see any model run that shows the snow SE of DC like that. Sorry but its kinda traumatic at this point. I would rather see a storm with precip type issues right now, both given this setup and given how this season has gone. I like where the Euro is when compared to the GEM. And at least the GFS had decent potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 not sure anyone ever posted a GFS map without Saturday's "event"? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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