wxmvpete Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: I would argue the GFS is the one with little to no support. GEPS, EPS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all had amped solutions. GFS is the only one that’s pretty flat Will be a nice test for the GFS Graphcast as well, which has been pretty insistent that this storm makes the turn up the coast. 23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Your anxiety is showing you might want to up your dosage This is not mid December. We are running out of time. We are in the bottom of the 9th with a leadoff single and a ground out 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ryan mahue can say this stuff based out of Atlanta I guess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS still has ice for Saturday. I'll send all of mine to you. Where do you live? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 8 hours ago, LeesburgWx said: Euro is acceptable. I don’t agree with Ji often, but he is right about us NW crew getting the shaft so far. Let the 00z euro be right and lead the way please I disagree about all of the NW crew getting shafted. I am at 75% of climo right now. One more modest storm or 2 small ones and I break climo this season. And I am as far NW as just about anyone in this subforum. The screwjobs this winter have been strictly a north/south gradient thing. 39 north has not had an outstanding winter for sure. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Ryan mahue can say this stuff based out of Atlanta I guess Lol way to sneak your picture in there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I disagree about all of the NW crew getting shafted. I am at 75% of climo right now. One more modest storm or 2 small ones and I break climo this season. And I am as far NW as just about anyone in this subforum. The screwjobs this winter have been strictly a north/south gradient thing. 39 north has not had an outstanding winter for sure. M/D crew would certainly beg to differ. Not only are we further NW, we've gotten shafted quite often. This week was the most recent example. Hasn't been a terrible winter by any measure--Lord knows we've seen worse--, but yeah, it's been tough watching everyone north and south of us cash in on warning events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 23 minutes ago, Ji said: This is not mid December. We are running out of time. We are in the bottom of the 9th with a leadoff single and a ground out Could be worse...could have been a double play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 17 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I disagree about all of the NW crew getting shafted. I am at 75% of climo right now. One more modest storm or 2 small ones and I break climo this season. And I am as far NW as just about anyone in this subforum. The screwjobs this winter have been strictly a north/south gradient thing. 39 north has not had an outstanding winter for sure. Compared to climo yes we have been shafted but it happens some years. It all balances out. Southern parts of our region are above climo already. I'm a little over 50% right now with about 4 weeks left. Going to need a good finish to get there. Our 2 biggest storms this year that gave double digits south were 4" and 2" snows in the north respectively. I'm not complaining but just saying compared to Climo it hasn't been a great year for the Northern crew so far. It's happens some years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, frd said: https://x.com/burgwx/status/1889876364268085283 Tomer states this "After the upcoming cold air outbreak, parts of the Northeast may be on track to end up with a rare trifecta of below average temperatures in all 3 winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb)." However, I am thinking in the snow department many areas of the country did not do well in the snow department. Lack of true bombs, Miller A storms, etc., despite a couple. Must be the Nina backdrop and lack of phasing storms and of course lack of a STJ. So much for climate change day after tomorrow storms. Cold but not crazy snowy winters are not historically uncommon at all. Especially in cold enso years. They’ve been uncommon lately because cold has been uncommon. But the fact we’ve struggled to ever be cold enough I think is making it feel like “we can’t afford to waste a cold winter with just avg snow” but historically that’s very very normal. Just because it’s warmer now doesn’t change that. I’ll agree if we get a central pac based moderate Nino in a +PDO we cannot afford to waste that. That’s a year we need 40”+ across the area. No excises. If we wasted a year like with a pacific setup like 1987, 2003, 2010, 2015… I’d be really really worried and upset. Those have to be blockbuster winters. A cold -enso with meh snowfall is just par for the course. 40 minutes ago, Ji said: This is not mid December. We are running out of time. We are in the bottom of the 9th with a leadoff single and a ground out But what is your bar? You’re acting like this year had big snow potential. It’s a cold enso. It’s a neural pdo at best, year better than the pdo hell we expected but it’s not a 1996 or 2014 type setup where we had an incredibly favorable pacific superimposed on the cold enso. This year we just had a mediocre pacific. Look at the best analogs to this season and cold isnt shocking. But most weren’t that snowy. The bar for this winter was always to get to near normal snow was a win. This year didn’t really scream 50” winter incoming. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 51 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: M/D crew would certainly beg to differ. Not only are we further NW, we've gotten shafted quite often. This week was the most recent example. Hasn't been a terrible winter by any measure--Lord knows we've seen worse--, but yeah, it's been tough watching everyone north and south of us cash in on warning events. You’re not disagreeing with his statement about the “shaft line.” He says that the “shafting” is a north/south thing and not a NW/SE thing. Also…you might be north, but he’s way the hell west. Edit: “shaft line” not “shady line” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf.I don’t love seeing the bowling ball look up top over the upper Midwest/GL associated with the polar vortex/blocking high. Seems like it’ll squash any energy more so than provide an opportunity for overrunning or phasing until it weakens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Cold but not crazy snowy winters are not historically uncommon at all. Especially in cold enso years. They’ve been uncommon lately because cold has been uncommon. But the fact we’ve struggled to ever be cold enough I think is making it feel like “we can’t afford to waste a cold winter with just avg snow” but historically that’s very very normal. Just because it’s warmer now doesn’t change that. This winter is right out of the 80s playbook for a "normal and acceptable" winter imo. It's like a mishmash of all non nino 80s winters that didn't torch. Even late 70s flavor during Jan. I'm already expecting the pdo to help or at least not hurt us next year. Odds of a neutral or favorable mean AO/NAO next year are above normal too if I'm thinking right. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon block is further south so not looking great at 144hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: This winter is right out of the 80s playbook for a "normal and acceptable" winter imo. It's like a mishmash of all non nino 80s winters that didn't torch. Even late 70s flavor during Jan. I'm already expecting the pdo to help or at least not hurt us next year. Odds of a neutral or favorable mean AO/NAO next year are above normal too if I'm thinking right. This is exactly how I remember the 80s winters, and this winter was just like them. No major extended torches, 1-2 major cold outbreaks, and a couple of sig snowstorms of 5-8" with a bunch of little stat padders in between. Some rainers in between. Feels... normal. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon block is further south so not looking at 144hrsNot bad honestly . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: Icon block is further south so not looking at 144hrs Might be a delayed not denied type thing, something brewing after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Icon block is further south so not looking at 144hrs Actually it's not that bad so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: I don’t love seeing the bowling ball look up top over the upper Midwest/GL associated with the polar vortex/blocking high. Seems like it’ll squash any energy more so than provide an opportunity for overrunning or phasing until it weakens. That's the lid I think. It's a tall order to get h5 to close a second low south of the vortex so the setup doesnt support a 1-2 punch storm. Without a vigorous upper low, you can't really get a long duration or moisture bomb. A warning level progressive shortwave is probably best case unless things shift around. Another thing holding back max potential is lack of organization near the MS# River. It's diffuse and flat until approach. One way a progressive wave can produce big is a big moisture fetch/organized low in place in advance. Not the case here. I do feel like there is a very good chance at a warning level snow but anyone married to the widespread 12+" fantasy op runs is either already named Ji or their bubble will burst 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It’s a blizzard Mitch lol . 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Icon. Fast rebound. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, Heisy said: It’s a blizzard Mitch lol . Oh? Still not at that panel...which hour? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Heisy said: It’s a blizzard Mitch lol . It delayed which gave things a chance to rebound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Holy shit. Yeah, it's a FOLKS 3 1 1 1 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Just now, mitchnick said: It delayed which gave things a chance to rebound. Why can't the ICON be a varsity model. It's kicking off 12z right 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Blizzard and FOLKS on the same page 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 12Z ICON: sorry don't know how to get rid of the symbols. Image Image 5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Not bad honestly . Had a very positively tilted troff at 120hrs. Somehow made a comeback despite the NS being really far east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 25" in DC, lol. 21 at Bmore, CAPE: 31 1 1 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Does it get tucked or no? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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