stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 Until it gets some support, eh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, stormtracker said: Until it gets some support, eh Lol, the Goofus and CMC were good as well. Just not good like Dr. Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 EPS is sick 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Uh oh.. 1st run showing it, and GFS ensembles have not been great lately, but Days 10-13 have a +WPO/+NAO pattern.. pretty strong. Going to flood the CONUS with warm air after the 20-22 storm if the run verifies verbatim. It does shift back to +PNA days 13+ though 1 7 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, ravensrule said: Lol, at least it’s 13.5 at my house. We’re right on the transition line so some of that is probably sleet. Let’s call it 13.4”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Uh oh.. 1st run showing it, and GFS ensembles have not been great lately, but Days 10-13 have a +WPO/+NAO pattern.. pretty strong. Going to flood the CONUS with warm air after the 20-22 storm if the run verifies verbatim. It does shift back to +PNA days 13+ though It always flips to spring after our late February blizzards, and I approve. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z EPS 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 6Z GFS still has ice for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Looks like 00z ai improved tooSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 at least there is still some indication still on 6z GFS of a snow event next week. certainly looks cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 39 minutes ago, BristowWx said: at least there is still some indication still on 6z GFS of a snow event next week. certainly looks cold enough. EPS and GEPS have more precip. I do like how we have cold in place again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Unfortunately I don’t think the 6z euro is going to as amped as 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Unfortunately I don’t think the 6z euro is going to as amped as 00z It isn't, but I think it's more that it's slower than 0z. Tpv is north of 0z moving south and the vort off of Maine is further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It isn't, but I think it's more that it's slower than 0z. Tpv is north of 0z moving south and the vort off of Maine is further west.Also I was surprised the 6z gefs took a step back from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 With that being said the 6z euro looks a lot better than 6z gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Like I said yesterday, although scrutinizing models is what we do 24/7, we're really not going to get any sort of reliable consensus until the weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z EPS You should have posted the 2 day snow map. That's a hell of a signal. 13 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: You should have posted the 2 day snow map. That's a hell of a signal. Pretty familiar to where we were for Tuesday’s storm - gives me fairly good confidence it’ll snow somewhere in this area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf.Your news is 99 percent bad? How can we have less qpf than it gave us before 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: Your news is 99 percent bad? How can we have less qpf than it gave us before The screw was tightened a half a turn more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Yup! My favorite ensemble plot is the individual members.. this type of agreement 180 hours out is a pretty big deal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1889876364268085283 Tomer states this "After the upcoming cold air outbreak, parts of the Northeast may be on track to end up with a rare trifecta of below average temperatures in all 3 winter months (Dec, Jan, Feb)." However, I am thinking in the snow department many areas of the country did not do well in the snow department. Lack of true bombs, Miller A storms, etc., despite a couple. Must be the Nina backdrop and lack of phasing storms and of course lack of a STJ. So much for climate change day after tomorrow storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Your news is 99 percent bad? How can we have less qpf than it gave us before Your anxiety is showing you might want to up your dosage 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, frd said: Must be the Nina backdrop and lack of phasing storms and of course lack of a STJ. So much for climate change day after tomorrow storms. Fixed it for you .. lol JK.. It definitely is a good sign though that we were able to get Wall to Wall cold this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 35 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 6z AI another scraper and ever so slightly less qpf. Further east this run, but it’s still outside 5 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 16 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: Yup! My favorite ensemble plot is the individual members.. this type of agreement 180 hours out is a pretty big deal More members west of the mean than east. Seems like a few far east members may be pulling the mean east. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13 Author Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Ji said: Unfortunately I don’t think the 6z euro is going to as amped as 00z 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: It isn't, but I think it's more that it's slower than 0z. Tpv is north of 0z moving south and the vort off of Maine is further west. Yeah, I knew the 0z Euro would be a fluke. Had no other model support. We prob won’t get what we want in today’s run, but I would like to see it get closer. I guess the Euro showed that it could work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: More members west of the mean than east. Seems like a few far east members may be pulling the mean east. Placement of high pressure too far East at hour 186 , I thought we needed it further West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I knew the 0z Euro would be a fluke. Had no other model support. We prob won’t get what we want in today’s run, but I would like to see it get closer. I guess the Euro showed that it could work out. I would argue the GFS is the one with little to no support. GEPS, EPS, ECMWF, CMC, and UKMET all had amped solutions. GFS is the only one that’s pretty flat 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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