Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Someone correct me if I'm wrong, but...the Canadian had a bit of a phase, correct? I think that may be the way we can get a win of some sort (Someone may have said that earlier as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Miller b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Another 5 inches would put me over 20 for the year. Four five inch snow events is damn good for around here! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 13 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The 90N block maxes out in the next 1-3 days, at +500dm. After then the AO loses its strength. It becomes about the Pacific moving into a more favorable pattern. The MJO is more about what H5 it's correlating with.. but this stuff at Day +0-3 is modeled well right now.. it's not something that is over the modeled 500mb pattern. It just sounds like you like +PNA over -AO... which is fine, but I think a Polar block maxing out and producing 2 rainstorms at its max without a -PNA pattern or anything like that is kind of disappointing. Like I said, AO is more about what it produces as it goes strong, not so much when it comes out of that max like the NAO. It’s not an instant magic pattern fix. There’s a SER due to the pacific this week. That usually gets fixed a week after a block starts. The block peaks the next 3 days yes but it just started yesterday. We need more than just a block. The first week a block develops is rarely good because they often start in phase 7 of the mjo which is hostile. Need to wait for phase 8. That’s when we usually get snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It’s not an instant magic pattern fix. There’s a SER due to the pacific this week. That usually gets fixed a week after a block starts. The block peaks the next 3 days yes but it just started yesterday. We need more than just a block. The first week a block develops is rarely good because they often start in phase 7 of the mjo which is hostile. Need to wait for phase 8. That’s when we usually get snow. We’re running out of time. We can’t blow Feb 20-27. Both threats look awful right now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: We’re running out of time. We can’t blow Feb 20-27. Both threats look awful right now I was talking about the rainstorms tomorrow and this weekend. That’s not uncommon. Remember the rain we got the first week of blocking in Jan 2010 (when you made the famous complaining posts) Jan 2016 and Jan 2021. The SER doesn’t just instantly go away when a block forms. It takes a wave or two to knock it down. Yes we need the last week of Feb to produce. I think we also get some shots the first 10 days of March. But yea we’re running out of time. Dunno why you think they look awful. I mean the gfs and ggem are cow farts away from a decent snowstorm. There’s a wave right there we just need it to amp up a little. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I was talking about the rainstorms tomorrow and this weekend. That’s not uncommon. Remember the rain we got the first week of blocking in Jan 2010 (when you made the famous complaining posts) Jan 2016 and Jan 2021. The SER doesn’t just instantly go away when a block forms. It takes a wave or two to knock it down. Yes we need the last week of Feb to produce. I think we also get some shots the first 10 days of March. But yea we’re running out of time. Dunno why you think they look awful. I mean the gfs and ggem are cow farts away from a decent snowstorm. There’s a wave right there we just need it to amp up a little. Because we can’t afford a decent snowstorm. Not you and me. We are way behind everyone else. But a 4-6 type storm just isn’t going to cut it especially with all the indices hitting triple 7s 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 PNA hasn't gone below -0.1 a single day since Dec 1st.. and that looks to continue at least through March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 PNA hasn't gone below -0.1 a single day since Dec 1st.. and that looks to continue at least through March 1Why do we talk so much -pna then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Why do we talk so much -pna then It was record breaking the last 7 years, especially in Feb-March, until this year. Big flip this year. Strongest non-Nino +PNA probably since 00-01. 2 weeks ago the GFS ensemble mean had a +300dm -PNA in the long range.. they didn't even come close to verifying.. it's still +pna Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Because we can’t afford a decent snowstorm. Not you and me. We are way behind everyone else. But a 4-6 type storm just isn’t going to cut it especially with all the indices hitting triple 7s What’s done is done. This coming pattern isn’t likely to make up for what’s already happened. We’re not in a Nino which limits how much of a heater we can get on. If we were in a moderate Nino I’d say ya sure let’s hope for some 20 days 50” snowstravaganza but those juts don’t happen in cold enso seasons. If we come out of the rest of winter with 10” that’s a win. Nothing will go back and give us the snow we didn’t get from past fails. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: It was record breaking the last 7 years, especially in Feb-March, until this year. Big flip this year. Strongest non-Nino +PNA probably since 00-01. 2 weeks ago the GFS ensemble mean had a +300dm -PNA in the long range.. they didn't even come close to verifying.. it's still +pna It’s not uncommon for is to get meh snowfall in a cold enso season even with a good pattern. It’s so much easier for us when there are juiced up STJ waves coming at us contagious in a Nino. I’ll worry more if we waste a Nino with a favorable pacific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not uncommon for is to get meh snowfall in a cold enso season even with a good pattern. It’s so much easier for us when there are juiced up STJ waves coming at us contagious in a Nino. I’ll worry more if we waste a Nino with a favorable pacific. Nino's have correlated with +EPO lately. Actually, the NPH (North Pacific High) is its main correlated region.. last Winter it did pop a -NPH, which is typical of +ENSO El Nino's can be very warm, and La Nina's can be very cold.. but we can get big snowstorms in El Nino yeah West-based El Nino, focused near the dateline is the better potential scenario. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s done is done. This coming pattern isn’t likely to make up for what’s already happened. We’re not in a Nino which limits how much of a heater we can get on. If we were in a moderate Nino I’d say ya sure let’s hope for some 20 days 50” snowstravaganza but those juts don’t happen in cold enso seasons. If we come out of the rest of winter with 10” that’s a win. Nothing will go back and give us the snow we didn’t get from past fails. This. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s not uncommon for is to get meh snowfall in a cold enso season even with a good pattern. It’s so much easier for us when there are juiced up STJ waves coming at us contagious in a Nino. I’ll worry more if we waste a Nino with a favorable pacific. It has been a Weak Nina-like STJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: What’s done is done. This coming pattern isn’t likely to make up for what’s already happened. We’re not in a Nino which limits how much of a heater we can get on. If we were in a moderate Nino I’d say ya sure let’s hope for some 20 days 50” snowstravaganza but those juts don’t happen in cold enso seasons. If we come out of the rest of winter with 10” that’s a win. Nothing will go back and give us the snow we didn’t get from past fails. No going back to what's behind us. that goes for all of, you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z EURO... 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro is super amped. Waiting to see if there is precip type issues but don’t care I want to see this amped up 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 There ya go @Ji Euro evens the score across our region in one day. That would get us all back to about where we should be wrt climo of that happened as this run shows. lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro is super amped. Waiting to see if there is precip type issues but don’t care I want to see this amped up what a monster 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, psuhoffman said: Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6” Lol, at least it’s 13.5 at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry @Maestrobjwa it’s only 11.6” I'm not sure what you're doing here, man...I never said it HAD to be 12"+. However, of course...this run is awesome! But uh...why the trolling? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 A little 1983ish with more modest totals. Very cold storm as depicted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Actually even with that storm I’d still be about 3” short of climo while places SE of 95 are already over climo but I’ll accept it lol. Just pointing out even if I get a 16” snow and places SE of 95 get rain they’re still having a better winter wrt climo. It’s been that lopsided. It has to even out eventually. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I'm not sure what you're doing here, man...I never said it HAD to be 12"+. However, of course...this run is awesome! But uh...why the trolling? I’m giving you a hard time because you implied I was down on the period because I said we probably wouldn’t get a 12”+ snow which was purely based on probabilities and how rare they are, and then the next run shows a 12” snowstorm…almost Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, HighStakes said: A little 1983ish with more modest totals. Very cold storm as depicted. Rain snow line is further NW than that 83 storm on this particular run but I see the general similarities. Kinda like that storm just displaced a little NW. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Rain snow line is further NW than that 83 storm on this particular run but I see the general similarities. Kinda like that storm just displaced a little NW. Was there a 1001mb low in 1983? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Was there a 1001mb low in 1983? I don’t feel like digging out my KU book but from memory I think it was like 1002mb when it passed off the VA capes and got down to about 996 off NJ. It want a deep low the snowfall was driven by good STJ moisture feed and good mid and upper level energy. Not a crazy deepening surface system 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Euro is acceptable. I don’t agree with Ji often, but he is right about us NW crew getting the shaft so far. Let the 00z euro be right and lead the way please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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