TSSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 It’s pretty much a snoozer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Beach chase on this run probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Light snow 7am Wed; Eastern shore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: Not gonna work this run, sliding offshore 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Ggem agrees with gfs and Nam now for weekend though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 My biggest takeaway from this GFS run was we should consider a thread for Saturday if the EURO shows anything. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: That’s uglier than the Ravens/Bills game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 With that south-based +NAO, I wouldn't be surprised if it trends wetter in the coming days. Also watch to see if that -AO holds strong with a -epo/+pna Pacific.. it might come a little north. AO is like -4 for the storm as modeled right now. Here is precip correlation to south-based +NAO in February https://postimg.cc/5H4Ty09s 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: My biggest takeaway from this GFS run was we should consider a thread for Saturday if the EURO shows anything. This would be an amazing appetizer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Ggem agrees with gfs and Nam now for weekend though You know this has been happening a lot this year we are looking at beyond hour 145 just to have something knocking on the door that’s interesting either happening or about to happen in 48 hours. This has been happening since the December thunderstorms that dropped multiple episodes of hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said: With that south-based +NAO, I wouldn't be surprised if it trends wetter in the coming days. Also watch to see if that -AO holds strong with a -epo/+pna Pacific.. AO is like -4 for the storm as modeled right now. I thought it would be better run with EPO/ Pna looking better this run to my non expert eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: This would be an amazing appetizer. Appetizer to next Thursdays flizzard? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Horrible run 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Scraff said: Appetizer to next Thursdays flizzard? Lol, I’ll bet you 3 fridges of beer we get more than a flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The 3-8" snow event with -AO at -3 wasn't part of the cold pattern? These next 2 rainstorms are frustrating. Supposingly, we are going to get well into the 50s both times. The Pacific pattern isn't bad for these storms. Gawx did research in the ENSO thread that showed, we have a chance at having the most DJF +PNA on record [CPC]. Out of non-Nino years, he says it will be the most +PNA DJF on record (going back to 1948). We all know how -PNA has been shutout pattern as of late, so it is a little concerning that DJF +PNA this year didn't produce more snow.. we aren't going to be so cold probably in future Winters. I said this same thing yesterday. No it’s not. The epo and Scandi blocks just linked up within the last 24 hours. The Mjo just left 6 into 7 which is common for the initiation of blocking. But until the forcing gets into the central pacific it’s hostile for us because the western pac promotes a SER which in what we have. This is why the weak blocking develops is almost always not good for snow. December 2009, January 2010, January 2016, March 2018, Jan 2021… all those -3stdv+ blocks we had rainstorms the week the block formed because we had a SER at the initiation of blocking and had to wait a week to get the trough into the east. That’s common. Yesterday’s snow was just dumb luck in an epo pattern. Like the wave some parts of the area we got in March 2022 or Feb 2018 or Feb and March 2019 in similar patterns. But way more often in those same epo patterns then waves don’t work out. But if you spend long enough in an epo pattern eventually you get some snow. But it’s not a path to a big snow (at least not NW of DC) or a big snow season. 2014 being the one unicorn anomaly of our lifetime. The favorable period for snow is a few days after the mjo gets into phase 8 and as the block fades and even after it’s gone so long as the pacific forcing remains favorable in phases 8-3. I should admit my disdain for epo patterns is location dependent. It’s not a fluke that in a period where almost all our snow has been from epo pattern waves that neither MD is getting bad results. That’s climo. EPO wave patterns are awful for up here. Snow anomaly maps for those patterns show that they are above normal snow for southeast of 95 but below normal for NW of 95. I’ve noticed a tendency for amplified waves in an epo pattern to cut north of us and non amplifying waves to affect the southern mid atl and there ends up a dead zone right across this area. The period I am excited for is a more amplified pattern after the blocking is established matured and fading and the pacific forcing is in 8-3 with a trough in the east. The pattern starts around Feb 18. The Feb 20 threat is the first of the pattern I am talking about. I was never excited by this epo pattern before that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Ji said: Horrible run I don’t know how your wife lives with you. Poor woman. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I don’t know how your wife lives with you. Poor woman. I’m dead. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I said this same thing yesterday. No it’s not. The epo and Scandi blocks just linked up within the last 24 hours. The Mjo just left 6 into 7 which is common for the initiation of blocking. But until the forcing gets into the central pacific it’s hostile for us because the western pac promotes a SER which in what we have. This is why the weak blocking develops is almost always not good for snow. December 2009, January 2010, January 2016, March 2018, Jan 2021… all those -3stdv+ blocks we had rainstorms the week the block formed because we had a SER at the initiation of blocking and had to wait a week to get the trough into the east. That’s common. Yesterday’s snow was just dumb luck in an epo pattern. Like the wave some parts of the area we got in March 2022 or Feb 2018 or Feb and March 2019 in similar patterns. But way more often in those same epo patterns then waves don’t work out. But if you spend long enough in an epo pattern eventually you get some snow. But it’s not a path to a big snow (at least not NW of DC) or a big snow season. 2014 being the one unicorn anomaly of our lifetime. The favorable period for snow is a few days after the mjo gets into phase 8 and as the block fades and even after it’s gone so long as the pacific forcing remains favorable in phases 8-3. I should admit my disdain for epo patterns is location dependent. It’s not a fluke that in a period where almost all our snow has been from epo pattern waves that neither MD is getting bad results. That’s climo. EPO wave patterns are awful for up here. Snow anomaly maps for those patterns show that they are above normal snow for southeast of 95 but below normal for NW of 95. I’ve noticed a tendency for amplified waves in an epo pattern to cut north of us and non amplifying waves to affect the southern mid atl and there ends up a dead zone right across this area. The period I am excited for is a more amplified pattern after the blocking is established matured and fading and the pacific forcing is in 8-3 with a trough in the east. The pattern starts around Feb 18. The Feb 20 threat is the first of the pattern I am talking about. I was never excited by this epo pattern before that. The 90N block maxes out in the next 1-3 days, at +500dm. After then the AO loses its strength. It becomes about the Pacific moving into a more favorable pattern. The MJO is more about what H5 it's correlating with.. but this stuff at Day +0-3 is modeled well right now.. it's not something that is over the modeled 500mb pattern. It just sounds like you like +PNA over -AO... which is fine, but I think a Polar block maxing out and producing 2 rainstorms at its max without a -PNA pattern or anything like that is kind of disappointing. Like I said, AO is more about what it produces as it goes strong, not so much when it comes out of that max like the NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kleimax Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Still waiting on 27 out of the 30 inches from those amazing ensemble runs from a few days ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I don’t know how your wife lives with you. Poor woman. We don’t see each other in the winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, Kleimax said: Still waiting on 27 out of the 30 inches from those amazing ensemble runs from a few days ago Thank you Ji Jr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Oh Canada ! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: Oh Canada ! Shitty maps show it bringing something up the coast but can’t tell if it’s anything super exciting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Shitty maps show it bringing something up the coast but can’t tell if it’s anything super exciting I mean it looks better than the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Shitty maps show it bringing something up the coast but can’t tell if it’s anything super exciting Get rocked pretty good at 180 at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z Can 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 I mean it looks better than the gfs. Just takes too long to get going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Swear something is broken with the CMC Kuchera - 10:1 for a slightly better picture 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Get rocked pretty good at 180 at least New England will like it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: My biggest takeaway from this GFS run was we should consider a thread for Saturday if the EURO shows anything. They teased us tonight and euro said no. Until the euro shows anything not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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