psuhoffman Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: So are you kinda backing off your expectations of the pattern? Or before were you just saying that the pattern just looked like that, not that you thought it had 12+" potential in the first place? Do you realize Baltimore has only had 20 12"+ stormstorms EVER...in over 135 years of records... We sometimes go decades without one. Anything that rare takes a lot more than just a very good pattern...it also takes a whole lot of luck. On top of that a large percentage of them have come in Nino years...making it even less likely in a nina, again no matter how good the pattern is. I have not changed my opinion of the pattern...but if we get a 6-10" snowstorm that is a win. If we get an 8" and 4" snow during the period...that is a win. We can't undo the past...if you are expecting this period to make up for the last 8 years or all the snow we got fringed with this winter...you are setting yourself up for disapointment. I said its a very favorable pattern and we have a good chance at snowstorms and I still feel that way, I never said I think we will get a HECS. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Ji said: No it’s on purpose. We should have way more snow than we should. It’s basically been a wall to wall winter. It’s like having 7 great drives and scoring 6 fields goals We've had the cold. Just need the storms to be in the right spot. Still. Lots of time left. Alot of us have had more snow this winter then we've gotten in a few years 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Do you realize Baltimore has only had 20 12"+ stormstorms EVERY...in over 135 years of records... We sometimes go decades without one. Anything that rare takes a lot more than just a very good pattern...it also takes a whole lot of luck. On top of that a large percentage of them have come in Nino years...making it even less likely in a nina, again no matter how good the pattern is. I have not changed my opinion of the pattern...but if we get a 6-10" snowstorm that is a win. If we get an 8" and 4" snow during the period...that is a win. We can't undo the past...if you are expecting this period to make up for the last 8 years or all the snow we got fringed with this winter...you are setting yourself up for disapointment. I said its a very favorable pattern and we have a good chance at snowstorms and I still feel that way, I never said I think we will get a HECS. I don't know why you think I think this...I don't. I was only talking about the next threat specifically, and getting clarity on exactly what you meant. And I don't believe that 6-10" is a fail. Now, would I like this pattern to break the 6"+ drought? Absolutely! Don't need a MECS to do that, lol 6" is my bar from now until I finally get that from a storm again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Ji said: I can’t remember a more frustrating winter Last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 hours ago, Warm Nose said: ... much better than 7 drives and no points. It's all about perspective. If the Eagles hadn't taken their foot off the gas and put in the backups, hey, 6 field goals probably would have still won the Super Bowl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @psuhoffman I just thought about something...if you've said there's only been 20 12"+ in our history, how crazy is it that 10 of those have come in the last 32 years? We literally got one every 3-4 years...so I guess that must've been a heater! I will say, being someone born in 1990, my entire working memory through 2016 was getting one of those storms every 3-4 years, lol So it's a slightly skewed perspective that has made the last 9 years feel more unusual. But you're absolutely right--it is rare historicallyrics! Just more common for 23 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 0z PBP? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 ICON has a few inches 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, nj2va said: ICON has a few inches that looks like a few flakes. Weak sauce 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Ji said: that looks like a few flakes. Weak sauce Low develops off the coast.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 our precip signal a few days ago was as good as ive ever seen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Low develops off the coast.. yes well off the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Low develops off the coast.. Like Heisy said...that dang nina-driven kicker. Without a phase at the right time this has advisory written all over it. But it is day 8 so it's still early... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z GFS; temps below freezing through most of Saturday NW zones as light precipitation breaks out. Mostly freezing rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 the NAM has snow/ice too 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z GFS, big news over the weekend is a lot of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z GFS; cold air establishing itself on Monday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Will try not to fall asleep until the next system rolls out.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Will try not to fall asleep until the next system rolls out.... It’s rough being up at 11:09 pm, for you that’s like 4:00 am for most people. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Will try not to fall asleep until the next system rolls out.... Where there's a WILL there's a way! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 @stormtrackerand @NorthArlington101 must be smoking a fatty together and forgot about us. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS; cold air establishing itself on Monday... Looks like a nice pattern actually. Not far from having a south-of-Alaska low (+PNA modeled) and 50/50 low. Then it's a matter of how wet the system is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 WB 0Z GFS 1pm Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, ravensrule said: @stormtrackerand @NorthArlington101 must be smoking a fatty together and forgot about us. I’m eyeing it but don’t know enough about what I’m looking for honestly - this kind of system has too many pieces for me. I like the look on radar slightly better at least lol through 144. But I make literally zero promises 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0Z GFS 1pm Tues. 50/50 low really rolls north. Almost touching southern Greenland. and the +PNA trough in the N. Pacific weakens a little moving east.. We need that Pacific piece for the trough to dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7pm Tues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Very light snow moving in at hr153 (4am Wed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Looks like a wolf 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Very light snow moving in at hr153 (4am Wed) Not gonna work this run, sliding offshore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: 7pm Tues. 1050mb High on the US/Canada border. +NAO's are wet, so it's not that big of a deal having the 50/50 displaced NE, you're just going to do more of an overrunning system vs a Miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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