February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ralph Wiggum]

Incoming on the gfs for the Feb 12 thing. Sprawling hp up top.

[Jebman]

On 1/30/2025 at 6:05 AM, WxUSAF said:

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

 

 

 

[Dendrimer77]

00z gfs is an absolute wave train of precipitation. It's a boundary dice roll for now but lots of opportunities to cash in on the docket.

[MillvilleWx]

One things for sure in this upcoming pattern, there will be a train of waves moving across the country into our neck of the woods. Thermal gradient placement and amplification regime once east of the Mississippi will be everything. Give us the cold and we will have numerous chances at frozen, whether it be in the form of all frozen or thump to flip remains to be seen, but both the GFS and ECMWF are now in tandem with the potential. Should be a fun pattern to monitor. 

[Ji]

Insane snow chart

[Stormchaserchuck1]

what's aldie doing.  nam is warm

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

Insane snow chart

EPS has mostly a -EPO.. It's very different from the GEFS which is about 1000 miles south with the Pacific High pressure. EPS is legit Alaskan block.. GEFS has not been showing this and has had -PNA for 3+ days. The two are very different right now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

17 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

One things for sure in this upcoming pattern, there will be a train of waves moving across the country into our neck of the woods. Thermal gradient placement and amplification regime once east of the Mississippi will be everything. Give us the cold and we will have numerous chances at frozen, whether it be in the form of all frozen or thump to flip remains to be seen, but both the GFS and ECMWF are now in tandem with the potential. Should be a fun pattern to monitor. 

Wonder if it's gonna go back and forth and one wave be more snowy, another more mixy...kinda like getting 5 rolls of the dice, lol

P.S. Funny that you posted now because ya literally just came to mind a few minutes ago! I hope you got through the crappy month you had okay, and that things are getting better. Just prayed for ya, bro--God bless!

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Wonder if it's gonna go back and forth and one wave be more snowy, another more mixy...kinda like getting 5 rolls of the dice, lol

P.S. Funny that you posted now because ya literally just came to mind a few minutes ago! I hope you got through the crappy month you had okay, and that things are getting better. Just prayed for ya, bro--God bless!

Thank you for the kind words my friend. It was a pretty horrible month for me. Grandmothers funeral was Thursday with the viewing the day before. My mouth is healing fine, although had a scare and emergency dental visit that cleared me of anything bad, but have to switch from Sonicare tooth brush to a manual soft bristle until cleared. Ravens L sucked too. Just a brutal month overall. Hopefully February and beyond are better. I appreciate the thoughts and prayers very much, so thank you 

[Weather Will]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Insane snow chart

WB 7 day 0Z EPS mean

[CAPE]

9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's not a 50/50 low. It's north.. It's a +NAO

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Insane snow chart

Jeez that’s really good!!! 

[mitchnick]

0z AI another great run. Check it out on TT. 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs&region=eus&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025020100&fh=6

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Jeez that’s really good!!! 

The takeaway from that product(specifically for that location) is that snow becomes at least possible around the 9th and the strongest signal is the 12-14th window, but that's 10+ days out. Even there a significant number of members have little or no snow. Overall still pretty scattershot. Imo the snow mean tools become more useful when there is consensus on a discrete threat inside 7 days. I will say given the advertised pattern progression, that window around the 12th does look interesting. Prior to that it's probably going to be more of a struggle to get snow for most of our region.

[aldie 22]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

what's aldie doing.  nam is warm

3am right on cue 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

35 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The takeaway from that product(specifically for that location) is that snow becomes at least possible around the 9th and the strongest signal is the 12-14th window, but that's 10+ days out. Even there a significant number of members have little or no snow. Overall still pretty scattershot. Imo the snow mean tools become more useful when there is consensus on a discrete threat inside 7 days. I will say given the advertised pattern progression, that window around the 12th does look interesting. Prior to that it's probably going to be more of a struggle to get snow for most of our region.

I just like seeing it light up, light at the end of the tunnel.  If we can get some snow threats in by early/middle February we could end up with some nice seasonal totals. 

[Weather Will]

Latest MJO...l hope EPS is correct....

[mitchnick]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Latest MJO...l hope EPS is correct....

You want to use the (bc) version, or bias corrected of both. That said, the reason the Gefs are warmer than the Eps is, in most likelihood, their MJO forecasts. And you're right, let's hope the Eps is closer.

Bias corrected are included at this link.

http://www.stormsurf.com/page2/links/mjo_phase.html

[aldie 22]

On face value i don't hate the 6z gfs op run around the 11th and 12th

[mitchnick]

6z AI continues with multiple threats of snow or snow to mix. It keeps shifting around but suffice to say the 10th-17th has the most snow threats, consistentwith the ensemblesand operationals. I'll let you figure out details from TT once it's out in around an hour.

[Ji]

On face value i don't hate the 6z gfs op run around the 11th and 12th

Just take the under on the precip totals

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Just take the under on the precip totals

You mean over on the rain totals and under on the snow totals. 

[aldie 22]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Just take the under on the precip totals

Precip is definitely focused south this year it seems 

[NorthArlington101]

You probably have to assume it’s wrong, but 6z GFS is still super wintry on Wednesday, even if it isn’t snow. 6z EURO was a slight cave towards it and threatens some light icing in favored spots. 

[mitchnick]

If you're wondering why so wet in February, this link is the 200mb jet starting at 0 hours on the Eps. Scroll through to the end of the run. It's a firehouse across the country. Gefs is the same.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=eps&region=namer&pkg=uv250&runtime=2025020100&fh=0

[NorthArlington101]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI continues with multiple threats of snow or snow to mix. It keeps shifting around but suffice to say the 10th-17th has the most snow threats, consistentwith the ensemblesand operationals. I'll let you figure out details from TT once it's out in around an hour.

Yeah, it hits us good. 

little bit of front end Wednesday, nice 3-6”+ day 10, 4-8”+ day 15

[bncho]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Yeah, it hits us good. 

little bit of front end Wednesday, nice 3-6”+ day 10, 4-8”+ day 15

We went from winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back in the span of one week. This forum is so bipolar.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

We went from winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back in the span of one week. This forum is so bipolar.

Our best posters have been saying forever our best window for the rest of winter is Feb. 15 - Mar. 15, so anyone canceling winter was silly. 
 

After Feb. 8th or so has looked really active on the ens for a bit - so I’m interested starting then. I can’t really buy the GFS’s output for Wednesday yet, but I’m hankering for something to track. Need a good distraction right now. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, bncho said:

We went from winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back to winter is over to winter is back in the span of one week. This forum is so bipolar.

It's not the fourm. It's the fact that no human or computer has any idea what will happen after day 5. The models are showing basically everything from warm and dry to cold and wet. Hopefully we'll actually have an idea over the next few days. My guts says climo Feb. NW will get snow. 95 east you know the drill.

[bncho]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Our best posters have been saying forever our best window for the rest of winter is Feb. 15 - Mar. 15, so anyone canceling winter was silly. 
 

After Feb. 8th or so has looked really active on the ens for a bit - so I’m interested starting then. I can’t really buy the GFS’s output for Wednesday yet, but I’m hankering for something to track. Need a good distraction right now. 

That's a good point.