psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Fozz said: It happened in 1996, 2000, and 2011 so we’re kinda due for a Nina MECS like the 12z GFS had Also 99, 2001, and 2018 had MECSs for MD north of 70. 2009 had one SE of 95. 2013 had one for interior VA. 2009, 2017 and 2018 had one for the beaches and 2022 had one just south of DC. 6-12” storms are common in our area in a Nina when it’s a cold enough pattern. But the 20”+ ones are very very rare. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: I’ll take the euro at this range, eps isn’t bad. There is def a shot at a decent event here. Just wish the pac would slow down to allow the wave to dig and turn the corner better that’s all . I agree. A week out I wouldn't wanna be in the bullseye anyhow. It never works out that way lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro 12z Short end of the stick again. No worries. Snowfall distribution like that never happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 You guys act like you’re from the Carolinas just taking any snow that shows up on the models 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Ji said: You guys act like you’re from the Carolinas just taking any snow that shows up on the models Can only take what we're given bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: You guys act like you’re from the Carolinas just taking any snow that shows up on the models What are we supposed to do? Ask for a refund? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Certainly seems to be. I absolutely see the potential of the pattern starting in 1 week and going beyond that. But I'd bet more on some sort of SECS/"meh" result than the MECS-HECS just because something probably will f this up from maxing potential. Hope I'm wrong. For the whole period or this one threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Ji said: You guys act like you’re from the Carolinas just taking any snow that shows up on the models New England thinks of us the way we think of NC 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: For the whole period or this one threat? I guess any particular threat in that period. So wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple more SECS-level events! Just don't know that we can pull a rabbit out of the hat to get a MECS+. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 AO sure is rising to positive pretty fast.. Maybe it's moving from -5 to 0 so fast that we will see a snowstorm around the 20th By the way, this pattern is in the N. Atlantic for the mean of the next 15 days.. When I rolled the February analogs ahead to March, they seemed to reverse.. notice the +AO/+NAO signal for March. Notice how the most +height anomalies in the N. Hemisphere are over the Azores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 hours ago, wxdude64 said: I'm just on the other side of that, currently 32.3/31.0 and a very light rain compacting the snowpack. I'm at 31.6 and the light rain is beginning to freeze on trees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO sure is rising to positive pretty fast.. Maybe it's moving from -5 to 0 so fast that we will see a snowstorm around the 20th By the way, this pattern is in the N. Atlantic for the mean of the next 15 days.. When I rolled the February analogs ahead to March, they seemed to reverse.. notice the +AO/+NAO signal for March Give me one more storm on the 20th, preferrably a MECS+, then bring on Spring. Would have no complaints about that. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, stormy said: I'm at 31.6 and the light rain is beginning to freeze on trees 32.0/31.1 here, no ice yet, though it is raining. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 18z Gefs understandably not as good as 12z, but not bad. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I agree. A week out I wouldn't wanna be in the bullseye anyhow. It never works out that way lol I remember saying the same thing for the storm yesterday, lol. Northwesterners never saw improvement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Eps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 2 minutes ago, paxpatriot said: I remember saying the same thing for the storm yesterday, lol. Northwesterners never saw improvement. True. I was on the southern end of the bullseye on several runs both GFS and Euro, even stated I wasn't happy being there once. BUT, this area did get the hit this time, biggest snows marched right thru here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Eps18z euro running ha, fun to get back to back euro runs. Let me know if Ai comes out . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, Heisy said: 18z euro running ha, fun to get back to back euro runs. Let me know if Ai comes out . I just checked. Lol Nope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Euro 12z Almost identical to today's event right there. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps Hmm, a beach-water snowstorm, a.k.a. beach and Tidewater snow event. Interesting that you do not see it extend significantly NE to graze Cape Cod. More or less another semi-gradient storm, maybe this one is beginning an evolution which rolled forward leads to a more regional wide SECS event near the 23 to 25 th time period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 End of the 18z euro, I think it looks a touch better than 12z but hard to tell until wxbell comes out to compare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: 2 pbps. I'm overwhelmed Someone give this man a raise! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 21 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Eps Not gonna lie. That map is irritating. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Crazy cold the middle of next week, I imagine some energy for a storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not gonna lie. That map is irritating. Lol Not our year. Last year was vs DC/BWI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just now, frd said: Crazy cold the middle of next week, I imagine some energy for a storm as well. Meh, too much cold for inland folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I guess any particular threat in that period. So wouldn't be surprised if we get a couple more SECS-level events! Just don't know that we can pull a rabbit out of the hat to get a MECS+. I don’t think we get a 12”+ event. That’s asking a lot in a Nina even in a good pattern. But I think there is a “decent” chance we can pull off a more widespread 6-10 type storm. I think there is a good chance we can get a 3-6 type deal or some combo of multiple events in those ranges. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 14 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of the 18z euro, I think it looks a touch better than 12z but hard to tell until wxbell comes out to compare . I like to look at 700mb RH and it does look like a slight improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 41 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO sure is rising to positive pretty fast.. Maybe it's moving from -5 to 0 so fast that we will see a snowstorm around the 20th By the way, this pattern is in the N. Atlantic for the mean of the next 15 days.. When I rolled the February analogs ahead to March, they seemed to reverse.. notice the +AO/+NAO signal for March. Notice how the most +height anomalies in the N. Hemisphere are over the Azores. Got to love ya. Only you would look past a cold pattern that hasn’t even started yet to the next possible torch. 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now