Bob Chill Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That's certainly FOLKS worthy. Feb 2015 is looking like a decent analog at least for THIS run. I was thinking the same but iirc that storm did a classic h5 close off in the deep south. It was a 1-2 punch because the closed ULL kinda dawdled. Dry slot lull was aggravating. CMC had the setup for a close off. Gfs and euro for most part setups would require a tpv phase for a bomb. That comes with excessive risk of a bust but would be fun AF for someone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: That's a classic looking stripe right there SW - NE bomb 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Wpc. Has storm in the gulf. Next Wednesday! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: That's certainly FOLKS worthy. Feb 2015 is looking like a decent analog at least for THIS run. Do you mean Feb 2014? We had a lot of minor snows Feb 2015 but no amplified waves most were over running in the epo pattern. The biggest snow we had that month was that cutter that somehow produced 4-8” because it was so cold the day before. I see some similarities to the Feb 2014 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: That's a classic looking stripe right there SW - NE bomb NE MD pummeled. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 DCA is already above climo for the 1991-2020 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Gfs is like a remake of the Blizzard of 78 where we actually get snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Just missed on Gfs on 2/25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Just missed on Gfs on 2/25 That was just to keep PSU humble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: That was just to keep PSU humble what makes me better than everyone else is how humble I am 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ukie would be close, but that block is over Hudson Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 End of Ukie seems to look okay, euro time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 5 minutes ago, Heisy said: End of Ukie seems to look okay, euro time . The block in Canada looks more ominous on Pivotal. EDIT: I put it in motion and it's still pushing south, so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
grhqofb5 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I've mostly lurked here over the past several years, just posting my observations during snow events. I have a couple of general questions about models, don't know if this is the right thread but don't want to post on a subforum that's dead with no chance of a response. (1) When models spit out the contoured snow maps, do the figures within those maps represent a mean projected accumulation (i.e. if its 6 inches, that means a deviation of +/- 2" depending on confidence level), or do those totals represent the maximum projected accumulation (i.e. not more than 6", within confidence level of 95%). I know these maps are always a snapshot in time, and some maps are specific about what they're showing, such as the 10% chance/confidence maps. But if not, are the figures just the mean? (2) I often hearing that ______ model has a north bias, a south bias, generally projects higher qpf totals, etc. If this is in fact true, meaning the bias is statistically significant, why aren't those models corrected to account for the bias? After all, aren't all of these models based on data or other markers from past storms, compared with incoming data from the current storm? And the purpose of any statistical model is to become progressively more accurate over time? Or are the people claiming real bias just weenies? (3) Everyone seems to have slightly different opinions, but as far as model supremacy is concerned, how do each rank at various stages of a storm (168 hours, 98 hours, 48 hours, 24 hours, 12 hours). Based on what I've observed, there seem to be three models that lead the pack, tell me if I'm right: EURO-- Seems to be the consensus best model at all stages GFS-- Seems to be about the same as the NAM, but NAM-- Seems to given more attention at about the 24 hour stage Then.... ICON, GEFS, UKIE, HRRR, GDEPS, GEM, CMA, etc.-- all works in progress. Any input would be appreciated.. Thanks!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: what makes me better than everyone else is how humble I am You deserve an award for your humility. Just don't accept it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12 Author Share Posted February 12 12z Euro seems to be delayed. Hasn't started yet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said: I've mostly lurked here over the past several years, just posting my observations during snow events. I have a couple of general questions about models, don't know if this is the right thread but don't want to post on a subforum that's dead with no chance of a response. (1) When models spit out the contoured snow maps, do the figures within those maps represent a mean projected accumulation (i.e. if its 6 inches, that means a deviation of +/- 2" depending on confidence level), or do those totals represent the maximum projected accumulation (i.e. not more than 6", within confidence level of 95%). I know these maps are always a snapshot in time, and some maps are specific about what they're showing, such as the 10% chance/confidence maps. But if not, are the figures just the mean? (2) I often hearing that ______ model has a north bias, a south bias, generally projects higher qpf totals, etc. If this is in fact true, meaning the bias is statistically significant, why aren't those models corrected to account for the bias? After all, aren't all of these models based on data or other markers from past storms, compared with incoming data from the current storm? And the purpose of any statistical model is to become progressively more accurate over time? Or are the people claiming real bias just weenies? (3) Everyone seems to have slightly different opinions, but as far as model supremacy is concerned, how do each rank at various stages of a storm (168 hours, 98 hours, 48 hours, 24 hours, 12 hours). Based on what I've observed, there seem to be three models that lead the pack, tell me if I'm right: EURO-- Seems to be the consensus best model at all stages GFS-- Seems to be about the same as the NAM, but NAM-- Seems to given more attention at about the 24 hour stage Then.... ICON, GEFS, UKIE, HRRR, GDEPS, GEM, CMA, etc.-- all works in progress. Any input would be appreciated.. Thanks!! if it's an ensemble map (GEPS, GEFS, EPS), it's usually a mean or median. If it's coming from the parent (the CMC, the GFS, the EURO), it is verbatim showing what the model outputted. Different types of maps may result in slightly different outputs, as they use different formulas to decide how much snow has fallen (or stuck, in some cases) sometimes i or others post percentile maps - those are also only for ensembles. These are like the confidence maps I don't think it's that easy but I'm the wrong guy. I think they try and knock out these biases in subsequent updates but the best forecasters almost like to know the biases so they know how to correct or mentally adjust. YMMV - idk which biases are real these days I think most of us would consider EURO king but GFS has it's days (yesterday). NAM did well yesterday too... some storms seem to work out better for the American suite of models then others. the GEM/CMC and UKIE are supposedly good models but maybe not for our specific purposes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 45 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: That's a classic looking stripe right there SW - NE bomb what time do we leave for NJ? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 GEFS has a respectable mean. Like 66% of this falls within 24 hours - but just to be inclusive of the whole period it's the best run so far for the 50th percentile map in a 24 hour window - more likely then not it does "something" is how I like to read these 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 is Euro running......dont see it on pivitol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 15 minutes ago, Ji said: what time do we leave for NJ? yesterday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 3 minutes ago, Shad said: is Euro running......dont see it on pivitol It is not, JI hacked it and is manipulating it to show a massive run. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Ok. Who broke the Euro!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Euro having issues again, and its worse this run. Status page is also down 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 I've mostly lurked here over the past several years, just posting my observations during snow events. I have a couple of general questions about models, don't know if this is the right thread but don't want to post on a subforum that's dead with no chance of a response. (1) When models spit out the contoured snow maps, do the figures within those maps represent a mean projected accumulation (i.e. if its 6 inches, that means a deviation of +/- 2" depending on confidence level), or do those totals represent the maximum projected accumulation (i.e. not more than 6", within confidence level of 95%). I know these maps are always a snapshot in time, and some maps are specific about what they're showing, such as the 10% chance/confidence maps. But if not, are the figures just the mean? (2) I often hearing that ______ model has a north bias, a south bias, generally projects higher qpf totals, etc. If this is in fact true, meaning the bias is statistically significant, why aren't those models corrected to account for the bias? After all, aren't all of these models based on data or other markers from past storms, compared with incoming data from the current storm? And the purpose of any statistical model is to become progressively more accurate over time? Or are the people claiming real bias just weenies? (3) Everyone seems to have slightly different opinions, but as far as model supremacy is concerned, how do each rank at various stages of a storm (168 hours, 98 hours, 48 hours, 24 hours, 12 hours). Based on what I've observed, there seem to be three models that lead the pack, tell me if I'm right: EURO-- Seems to be the consensus best model at all stages GFS-- Seems to be about the same as the NAM, but NAM-- Seems to given more attention at about the 24 hour stage Then.... ICON, GEFS, UKIE, HRRR, GDEPS, GEM, CMA, etc.-- all works in progress. Any input would be appreciated.. Thanks!!I’m not the one who should answer, but the questions are interesting and I’m waiting on sushi rn. For #2 I think that’s where ai/ml would add value (since it should be based more so on what usually occurs instead of what should) and definitely agree on #3 regarding the euro. It just seems like an all around dominant model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 @Heisy Cool! AI will keep getting better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 [mention=8091]Heisy[/mention] Cool! AI will keep getting better.This must be why everything is late . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, Heisy said: This must be why everything is late . AI is so resource-intensive! Need some more hamsters on wheels in the basement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said: AI is so resource-intensive! Need some more hamsters on wheels in the basement. Actually the Euro AI just achieved consciousness and launched a missile strike against the computers running the regular Euro. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Euro having issues again, and its worse this run. Status page is also down what do you mean its worse....even more south and east? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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