Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 11 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen? GFS op has actually been most consistent with the feb 5 mix thump thing tbh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 I want whatever the GFS is smoking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 18 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Very interested to see how its performance will be. How long has it been indicating frozen? At least 3 days, maybe 4 or 5. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 50 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I'm still going with no snow for 15+ days @stormtracker, you got this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 31 Share Posted January 31 Dry af Prime climo, too. Oh well…wall to wall winters are rare for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 53 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I want whatever the GFS is smoking I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days? GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I want whatever half this forum is smoking. Bone dry? No snow next 15 days? GFS alone has 4 waves between Feb 5 and Feb 14 and each has frozen for at least parts of this sub. People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually It’s so bad. People saying shut the blinds and where’s the cold and then next post is a half foot of snow next week on modeling. It’s just so tired. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: People with zero comedic sense trying to be funny as trolls. It's boring actually None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland.. From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: None of these appear to be clean flush hits. Heck, none of these may even have frozen when it happens. But if this is our 'mild' period and we are potentially tracking, that isnt a bad thing. I recall a few folks saying be careful in this pattern with all these waves and cold air lurking nearby as something could pop in the short range? And then you have that certain someone lurking waiting for that one op run of the gfs showing warm and then he posts 15 times between 3-5am 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is the period where things can really get interesting and set us up for the latter half of Feb into March. The NE PAC ridge amplifies and undergoes an anticyclonic wave break, forcing a significant piece of energy associated with the TPV rotating southward to push eastward towards Atlantic Canada, which in turn begins to build h5 heights into Greenland.. From there the progression continues, with additional energy dropping southward overtop the EPO ridge, flattening the SE ridge and initiating further amplification in the NA, with a potential atmospheric block developing around mid month. Agreed, mid-month onward likely best chances setting up for an actual secs/mecs tracking window. Great explanation of the progression as usual. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 18z GEFS has that look. First time we are seeing an indication of an actual 50-50 low on the mean. That's not a 50/50 low. It's north.. It's a +NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200 Thank you!!!! You just saved winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 1 minute ago, Allsnow said: Thank you!!!! You just saved winter Actually, the last storm might be better than the other two if that's possible. It starts real cold. Here's the 850 temp/500mb 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 28 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI 18z has a little frozen on the 5/6 next week. No big deal. Now. Take your children out of the room. Once you take out, you can continue to read this. Click on this link and move forward in time. From DC northward, the storm is mostly snow. This is 2/11 BUT...continue to move forward in time to Thursday 2/13. That storm is all snow from even southern VA. It's more an I95 storm, but it's an absolute MONSTER! Have a nice rest of your evening. Disregard the 3rd one at the end of the run even though that would at least start as snow too. Lol https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501311800&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502111200 holy shit 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site. But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, bncho said: holy shit Total storm qpf from Pivotal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. We're weenies, man. Let us enjoy our 30 minutes of happiness. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258Winter will return. We just got used to 2 months straight of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Hopefully you guys will learn the importance of upper latitude 500mb patterns. 12 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 500mb map looks decent for all 3 AI events. Here's a link to the 500mb anomalies starting from just befor storm 1. Move forward to see the rest of the 5H anomalies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ec-aifs®ion=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025013118&fh=258 Thank you @mitchnick Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 59 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Pivotal has the precip shield further for the 2nd one a little further offshore than as it appeared to me on the Euro site. But storm 3 is definitely better on Pivotal than it looked on the Euro site. The big ones usually lock in 14 days out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 3 minutes ago, Yeoman said: The big ones usually lock in 14 days out Yep, right next to 'go with the snowiest model'...page 1 of the weenie handbook. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Thank you @mitchnick Looks like a transient -PNA during the reload with signs of ridging in the PNA region rolling forward. SER gets predictably squashed. Seasonal trends rule? AI isn't a very good model. GEFS has a strong, sustained, stable -PNA Hrs240-384.. +300dm in the long range is about as extreme as it gets on the ensemble mean. https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 I guess he found his run 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 1 Share Posted February 1 Incoming on the gfs for the Feb 12 thing. Sprawling hp up top. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts