February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

The block just creates an area where the energy could just sit and spin under it. As long as no kicker comes off the pac a strong low could form


.

All I see at 18z Gfs is my worst fear again. Ready to kick this winter in the nuts and root for spring to be honest. Been chasing threats since December with 11+" to show for it. 

[Amped]

3 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya that’s more like it

 

I'll take my chances with that setup. Just gotta negative tilt the troff and it's a Hecs.

[Ji]

this is really frustrating

[frd]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But it can't gain latitude though, it seems...and instead jackpots guess where? Smh

6 High pressure systems and a block keep it South, not surprised. But, yes, its one op model at 210 hours,  but I have seen that track and tendency ( de-amp ) over and over this winter so far. 

 

[Chris78]

6 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Pretty chilly airmass behind the weekend storm for early next week setting the stage for our potential storm.

Southern VA will be ready.  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But it can't gain latitude though, it seems...and instead jackpots guess where? Smh So tired of this.

It's ONE deterministic run.  Can't fret that stuff right now.  The previous two GFS runs had an almost inland runner that was some combination of snow/ice/rain.  The 00Z ECMWF from what I saw pummeled us (snow, and a period of ice then cold).  The 12Z CMC gave us a high-end cold powder MECS.  For me, the key takeaway is that a storm is now seemingly showing up consistently in that time frame.  Hell, a few days ago, the GFS was dumping 40"+ on us.  Again, the idea here is that it's a somewhat loaded pattern; we can't go back and forth worrying about every single cycle of every model this far out.

[Chris78]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

this is really frustrating

Shut down your psu storm thread

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Chris78 said:

Southern VA will be ready.  

They might have to buy a second plow

[frd]

Just now, Amped said:

I'll take my chances with that setup. Just gotta negative tilt the troff and it's a Hecs.

Your not going to get a HECS without a parking lot in the Atlantic. You need everything to slow down.  As psu stated before,  in a Nina  you are needing a super powerful vortex in the Atlantic to log jam the flow and allow storms to slow.  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

It's ONE deterministic run.  Can't fret that stuff right now.  The previous two GFS runs had an almost inland runner that was some combination of snow/ice/rain.  The 00Z ECMWF from what I saw pummeled us (snow, and a period of ice then cold).  The 12Z CMC gave us a high-end cold powder MECS.  For me, the key takeaway is that a storm is now seemingly showing up consistently in that time frame.  Hell, a few days ago, the GFS was dumping 40"+ on us.  Again, the idea here is that it's a somewhat loaded pattern; we can't go back and forth worrying about every single cycle of every model this far out.

Here's my problem: The solution it showed is the same trend that has been going on all winter. Vorts aren't amped enough, and they often sit there spinning under the block, and then when they do make it over here it's weak and suppressed.

If that wasn't the seasonal tendency it wouldn't bother me.

[stormtracker]

It's funny how we were worried about too amp'd and now it's south of us.  Happened all in 12 hours.  Honestly, that's where I'd want it right now.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's funny how we were worried about too amp'd and now it's south of us.  Happened all in 12 hours.  Honestly, that's where I'd want it right now.

 I agree   8 days out id rather it be off shore instead of a cutter!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, stormtracker said:

It's funny how we were worried about too amp'd and now it's south of us.  Happened all in 12 hours

We've seen everything from getting a bit too far north to a nice MECS+ hit to sliding just to the south.  Supposed seasonal trend or not, at this point in time it's not worth worrying about until we get much closer in.  What are people going to say if 00Z cuts it into Lake Erie?  FFS!

[winter_warlock]

Regardless of storm track. Cold is coming back  for a while!

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's funny how we were worried about too amp'd and now it's south of us.  Happened all in 12 hours.  Honestly, that's where I'd want it right now.

Not me. I want it amped AF for the mid range deamp when it drops 300 miles south.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

We've seen everything from getting a bit too far north to a nice MECS+ hit to sliding just to the south.  Supposed seasonal trend or not, at this point in time it's not worth worrying about until we get much closer in.  What are people going to say if 00Z cuts it into Lake Erie?  FFS!

I would bet my next paycheck that that will be a solution that would NOT show up, lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Also, that is probably not the only storm chance in the upcoming pattern regime that's being forecast.  @psuhoffman gave some good descriptions earlier about this.

[psuhoffman]

It’s still too far out to be worrying about op runs every 6 hours. It’s also possible this wave does get suppressed and we wait for the next one.  Blocking is needed to keep an amped up wave (which is necessary for a big storm) from cutting but it means a weaker wave will get squashed. It gives us a higher ceiling but yes it can be dry. But this kind of progression also gives us multiple shots and often a hit comes later in the cycle as the block dies and the flow relaxes. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I would bet my next paycheck that that will be a solution that would NOT show up, lol

OK, to be honest, I want to see (at some point soon, whenever that is!) a solid event, MECS+ level, consistently showing up for the whole area cycle after cycle.  I just don't think realistically we'll see that consistency just yet, if that's what actually ends up occurring at that time.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I would bet my next paycheck that that will be a solution that would NOT show up, lol

Dude weren’t you posting 12 hours ago about some stuff blue wave said about it being too warm and storms cutting and now your sure it’s gonna be too cold and south of us. You full tilt man. 

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s still too far out to be worrying about op runs every 6 hours. It’s also possible this wave does get suppressed and we wait for the next one.  Blocking is needed to keep an amped up wave (which is necessary for a big storm) from cutting but it means a weaker wave will get squashed. It gives us a higher ceiling but yes it can be dry. But this kind of progression also gives us multiple shots and often a hit comes later in the cycle as the block dies and the flow relaxes. 

We been chasing amped coastals at day 5-7 all season just for them to end up getting crushed. Little faith 

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Dude weren’t you posting 12 hours ago about some stuff blue wave said about it being too warm and storms cutting and now your sure it’s gonna be too cold and south of us. You full tilt man. 

I'm not sure about anything...except that this kind of block isn't likely to show a cutter. Bluwaves post talked about not just cutters but suppressed storm tracks--and that's why I shared it because that's what we've seen lately. And this fantasy run showed more de-amped suppression like we've seen this winter.

And btw...if I had a worry it was just the SER-NAO link you brought up as a red flag for the future. So I'm glad that's not showing today.

[Paleocene]

Lol at people jumping ship over a coastal 8 days out

[BlizzardNole]

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Never thought I'd have to move to Southern MD for snow lol

I left Calvert years ago and it has paid off in the past, but this winter is a killer!  My fam down there got 11" from Jan 6 and they have almost 5" with heavy snow now.  I'll be lucky to get 2 inches.  I really need a good hit for my area from this late Feb window

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

We been chasing amped coastals at day 5-7 all season just for them to end up getting crushed. Little faith 

Have we?  There was a one week window in early January that we had a high latitude pattern but the mid latitude trough axis was way too far east so we ended up with a progressive w-e wave.  After that the pattern quickly evolved to an epo driven pattern. Those aren’t good for big snowstorms.
 

But it’s also not uncommon in cold enso seasons for cold January patterns to be dry for NW of DC and for the later Feb into March to produce more amplified storms.

1999, 2009, 2017, 2018 all had that pattern. Didn’t work out in all of them, nothing is guaranteed. 
 

But the first in what looks like at least 3 to maybe as many as 5 or 6 wave opportunities is still over a week away. What happened today they suddenly everyone is having a panic attack?  

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Have we?  There was a one week window in early January that we had a high latitude pattern but the mid latitude trough axis was way too far east so we ended up with a progressive w-e wave.  After that the pattern quickly evolved to an epo driven pattern. Those aren’t good for big snowstorms.
 

But it’s also not uncommon in cold enso seasons for cold January patterns to be dry for NW of DC and for the later Feb into March to produce more amplified storms.

1999, 2009, 2017, 2018 all had that pattern. Didn’t work out in all of them, nothing is guaranteed. 
 

But the first in what looks like at least 3 to maybe as many as 5 or 6 wave opportunities is still over a week away. What happened today they suddenly everyone is having a panic attack?  

I can recall multiple system at that range that were more amped including the one today. 

[psuhoffman]

18z GEFS is north and more amplified than 12z.  Are we going to worry about over and under amplified at the same time now?  
 

Trurh is both could happen, because we are in such a good pattern look they a miss in either direction is equally likely. Or a hit. I shouldn’t tell anyone how to feel. I promised I wouldn’t do that. But imo you’re gonna drive yourself crazy stressing every op run shift in this upcoming pattern. Let’s see what things look like in a couple days as this get inside 140 hours. That’s been about when guidance starts to get a somewhat clearer picture and converge at least a bit. And that’s amazing btw. Used to be 72 hours before I’d even take general ideas seriously. 
 

As for blue wave, it seems a little suspect to use the same feature to explain both over and under amplification. I’d have to look at it more but sometimes we try to find order to chaos when it’s just chaos. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I can recall multiple system at that range that were more amped including the one today. 

Yea but the pattern wasn’t right for an amplified wave. I don’t care what models show at 200 hours when it doesn’t fit the pattern.  That goes both ways. When they show good in a bad pattern or when they show bad in a good one. I’ll take pattern recognition over unicorn range model output. 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I can recall multiple system at that range that were more amped including the one today. 

Btw this storm was only slightly more amplified at range. For like 24 hours the max snow was across MD and Southern PA. That’s a cows fart away from this end result for that range. That’s a noise level error for 8 days out!  
 

The actual failure of this week for our area was actually the second wave. If you dug into the ensembles that showed a “can’t miss” huge snow total it was from multiple waves this week. A lot of them done an initial wave going to our south. But they hit us with a second or third wave.  Where they failed was not seeing that we would only be on the cold side of the boundary for one day. They had the boundary stay south of us for 4 days as wave after wave passed.  
 

What about the fact the models were under amplified on the next wave Thursday?  What about the wave 3 weeks ago that hit PA and screwed DC?   It’s selection bias to only count the storms that  were under amplified and not the ones that ended up more. 

[Heisy]

18z GEFs is pretty sweet for this range


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