February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

March 2001?

Boxing day 2010?

no not close in a bad way 

[mitchnick]

12Z AI getting it's act together for the 20th. Not quite there but it's headed toward a big event. Scroll forward. All precip is snow thru the 23rd.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502111200&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502191200

[AlexD1990]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

no not close in a bad way 

 

[bncho]

I can't wait for the people stressing over the GFS giving them 18 inches instead of 21 on 2/19.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, AlexD1990 said:

 

Think full latitude negatively tilted trough from the Arctic to Florida 

[AlexD1990]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Think full latitude negatively tilted trough from the Arctic to Florida 

 

I was 3.

[psuhoffman]

Before everyone goes nut's 9/10 times that won't lead to a triple phased super storm...you also need to get the arctic jet to fully dive in and phase and that's the tricky part...but its a loaded look for sure.  And then at the very end its reloading the ridging near Greenland again.  

[AlexD1990]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Before everyone goes nut's 9/10 times that won't lead to a triple phased super storm...you also need to get the arctic jet to fully dive in and phase and that's the tricky part...but its a loaded look for sure.  And then at the very end its reloading the ridging near Greenland again.  

Sounds like it's ripe with potential.  At least we get to continue tracking, if nothing else. I would love to experience something like that in my lifetime, when I'm old enough to be aware, at least. Hopefully it wouldn't be rain like that storm was for me...

[Bob Chill]

PSU just said triple phase is a lock. Which makes sense because the triple phase WDI is at ATHs

[Maestrobjwa]

39 minutes ago, bncho said:

I can't wait for the people stressing over the GFS giving them 18 inches instead of 21 on 2/19.

We haven't had that problem in 9 years...I'd love to see that argument happen. Shoot I'll take a 1 foot vs 2 feet debate...

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

PSU just said triple phase is a lock. Which makes sense because the triple phase WDI is at ATHs

Feb 6 1995 is showing up in the analogs a lot. That was an underrated storm imo. Ya the hecs level snow was northeast of us but we got 6-10” across our area and it was mostly in a 6 hour period with thunder snow. I never understood why so many acted like that was some letdown just because places that get more snow than us got more snow than us. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Feb 6 1995 is showing up in the analogs a lot. That was an underrated storm imo. Ya the hecs level snow was northeast of us but we got 6-10” across our area and it was mostly in a 6 hour period with thunder snow. I never understood why so many acted like that was some letdown just because places that get more snow than us got more snow than us. 

I got around 7" in Linthicum, but knew south of me got screwed. Went down 97 to Annapolis and by the time I got to Parole Plaza it was a coating.

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I got around 7" in Linthicum, but knew south of me got screwed. Went down 97 to Annapolis and by the time I got to Parole Plaza it was a coating.

I got about that near IAD. True SE of 95 didn’t get much but that’s common in amplified coastals unfortunately. I mean even people west of the fall like were kinda meh about that storm when it comes up in discussions. Not sure if it’s because it was an awful year otherwise or they are mad Philly NE got double what we did. 

[Maestrobjwa]

On 2/10/2025 at 8:52 AM, bluewave said:

It could be the rapid SST warming near Japan and acceleration of the Pacific Jet leading to the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream tracks since 18-19.

 

 

Bluewave mentioned this in the NYC thread earlier, and it got me wondering whether this ahs something to do with the weird snowhole that's plagued part of this forum...I mean that's when it started, isn't it? Lol

[psuhoffman]

[Fozz]

I’m meh about that storm because I was 4 years old and I don’t remember it.

Looked like a fun storm based on the maps.

[AlexD1990]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

ew.

[Ji]

49 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

PSU just said triple phase is a lock. Which makes sense because the triple phase WDI is at ATHs

we have not get a triple phase since 1993 on your 35th birthday. We due

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have not get a triple phase since 1993 on your 35th birthday. We due

Eff that mess.

Feb 2010 like. Either one.

[Bob Chill]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Feb 6 1995 is showing up in the analogs a lot. That was an underrated storm imo. Ya the hecs level snow was northeast of us but we got 6-10” across our area and it was mostly in a 6 hour period with thunder snow. I never understood why so many acted like that was some letdown just because places that get more snow than us got more snow than us. 

I was out west from 92-99 so I didn't experience any of the 90s storms. Based on your maps and my maturity level back then, that storm would have made me mad lol

[psuhoffman]

I was trolling in banter about wanting to miss snow north not south. That was mostly trolling, although because I ski I prefer it to snow north not south and I can snow chase north but I’m not chasing south where 6” becomes an apocalypse. 
 

But there was a kernel of truth, if you live southeast of the fall line you know what time it is. I used to work with someone who liked snow but lived right on the bay near middle river. He complained every time he got 1” and others got 5”. I used to tell him you can move 20 miles, have the same commute, and get way more snow and he never took it seriously. So why should I fret when climo got him when he didn’t care enough to be on the correct side of the fall line. We live in a free country. You can live where you want.  If you choose to live a place that averages 15” of snow you can’t complain when a place that averages 25” gets more. 
 

I have way more sympathy when someone gets screwed by bad luck when one of these progressive waves goes north or south of them. But when climo does exactly what climo does on a classic east coast storm that’s just what’s supposed to happen. 

[Kay]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I was trolling in banter about wanting to miss snow north not south. That was mostly trolling, although because I ski I prefer it to snow north not south and I can snow chase north but I’m not chasing south where 6” becomes an apocalypse. 
 

But there was a kernel of truth, if you live southeast of the fall line you know what time it is. I used to work with someone who liked snow but lived right on the bay near middle river. He complained every time he got 1” and others got 5”. I used to tell him you can move 20 miles, have the same commute, and get way more snow and he never took it seriously. So why should I fret when climo got him when he didn’t care enough to be on the correct side of the fall line. We live in a free country. You can live where you want.  If you choose to live a place that averages 15” of snow you can’t complain when a place that averages 25” gets more. 
 

I have way more sympathy when someone gets screwed by bad luck when one of these progressive waves goes north or south of them. But when climo does exactly what climo does on a classic east coast storm that’s just what’s supposed to happen. 

Your former coworker did not understand the correct philosophy for living where he did. It would have made him a happier person. You NEVER expect to get the most. You barely pay attention to who gets the most. You can still hope for a good snow, or lucky fluke, but you don't play a comparison game. You hope to do well "considering" lol

[yoda]

CPC has a lot of risks up in the Feb 19 to 25 range

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

 

[yoda]

 

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Bluewave mentioned this in the NYC thread earlier, and it got me wondering whether this ahs something to do with the weird snowhole that's plagued part of this forum...I mean that's when it started, isn't it? Lol

Yes. NYC is suffering from the same snow hole you are. 

[LongRanger]

You must be new here, Kay. The rules here require rooting for the imby jack, then suicide when, surprise, that does not happen. Lather rinse repeat.

I'll be happy if the rest of the month features interesting weather, but I'm just a renegade rules breaker.

[psuhoffman]

We know what Feb 19-26 looks like on the eps.

week 3 on the weeklies

week 4

that takes us to March 14 and the pattern breaks down after. we get 3 solid weeks of a very favorable pattern to end winter. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We know what Feb 19-26 looks like on the eps.

week 3 on the weeklies

week 4

that takes us to March 14 and the pattern breaks down after. we get 3 solid weeks of a very favorable pattern to end winter. 

Works for me.  Give us several opportunities that we can hopefully score well on a couple (or so!) times from now through mid-March and I'd be fine.

[WxUSAF]

Let’s rock and roll for 1 more month and then 3 months of 70F please

[NorthArlington101]

GFS with some very light snow Saturday before ice.