February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, frd said:

Your not concerned about the seaonal trends, and results so far ?   Whether the blocking is TPV or -AO induced it is resulting in the same outcomes, snowfall favored South.   

you're talking like one op run of the euro means that's whats happening...

WHat about the last run where it cut and we got rain?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

Thanks PSU.  I could only find sage words and phrases like that here. 

I'm saving most of them for my book but I thought I'd give ya that nugget for free

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Yeah, I'm just as worried as you. 

loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way...

For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves.  

[Maestrobjwa]

59 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well...what are "THEY" looking at...this all looks good to me

Day 15 on the EPS and GEFS

First week of March on extended GEFS and EPS

So is there something else out there that doesn't look good...or do they think THAT doesn't look good?

If they think that doesn't look good then they don't know what good is, and I don't just mean that in a snarky way, some think because the crazy stupid high latitude block is weakening...not less nutso deep red up top there...its "not as good".

But our best snow chances usually come AFTER crazy blocking not at the peak of it.  Part of this can be too much blocking but another part of it is that blocking is often initiated when tropical forcing moves into the western pacific.   (MJO phase 7).  This causes ridging in the central pacific to move poleward and destructively interfere with the TPV.  But this same forcing also promotes a PNA trough and SER.  That is why at the start of blocking we rarely get a snowstorm and it usually takes a wave or two to pull the boundary south.  

By the time the tropical forcing enters the central pacific the blocking has often retrograded to Canada and begins to weaken.  But the baroclinic boundary is south, waves are propagating across 50/50 reinforcing the confluence into the northeast, and the MJO is now favoring a PNA ridge and eastern trough so systems are more likely to dig and amplify into the TN Valley and up the east coast not up into the Ohio Valley and new england.  

This is the start of our best window for snow.  Usually the pattern does not collapse immediately but last 1-2 more weeks from that point on when we see this degree of AO drop.  So I think we have at least until March 5 and probably more like March 10 or 15 before things start to fall apart and the snow season is OVA.  

So then what makes next week a favorable period in light of the block just getting established?

[MissAnthrope]

33 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What song are you parodying?

David Bowie - Space Oddity

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way...

For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves.  

Ensembles SE fwiw. But they could rain tonight as much as they jump around. 

[WxUSAF]

EPS H5 looks quite nice for the 20th and 25th

[Maestrobjwa]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way...

For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves.  

But that there would be more of a luck thing as opposed to "that" problem, correct?

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

So then what makes next week a favorable period in light of the block just getting established?

Blocking is getting established this week...Feb 20th is the second wave, the PD wave is the one to kick start the favorable window.  But it's possible the wave around Feb 24 ends up an even better setup...but its hard to say I like both right now honestly.  

Feb 20 Setup 

@Stormchaserchuck1 close enough to 50/50?

I can see why suppression "could" be a concern if the wave isn't amplified enough...but thats why we like blocking...it allows us to root for a more amplified wave.  That's how we get big storms. 

Not complaining about this snow mean either at day 10! 

But the next wave has a better PNA ridge to work with and might be in a better place to amplify...if the first wave is suppressed that might be a better shot.  

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

But that there would be more of a luck thing as opposed to "that" problem, correct?

yes, I don't think we are going to have "that" problem... let's not worry about any problem until it actually happens.  Life's too short 

[psuhoffman]

Ya'll know I will be the first person to lay it on ya straight when I think things are going sideways with some depressing "uh oh" post.  It's way too early for that shit.  The pattern is damn near perfect.  Model runs will bounce around some with details because of the lead time here...but the fact they are all around us with big hits or near misses is a good thing.  We just have to wait a few days now to see how the details start to line up.  There is going to be a wave in our area with the chance to amplify along the east coast.  That is the point of getting this pattern.  The details that will determine exactly where gets snow will be dependent on subtle factors we won't know until much closer.  

[Heisy]

loop the op euro h5, how that managed not to snow on us is just.... if we fail that way...
For those without access it tracks two closed H5 lows right over us but both have nothing at the surface due to messy phases between multiple waves.  

Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows


.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Heisy said:

Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows


.

OMFG get that ish out of here 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

yes, I don't think we are going to have "that" problem... let's not worry about any problem until it actually happens.  Life's too short 

Oh I'm not as worried about any other fail mechanisms--just that one because that nightmare scenario would be more "this storm and storms in the future" rather than just a fail this time. Yes the 9-year snowhole SUCKS and missing to the south again would kinda hurt. But at least we would still be in the game in a future winter. I think I'm slowly learning to shake off the fails a little more and just move on to the next threat and/or next winter. Fail happens, ya feel it a bit for a day, then the mental/spiritual reset.

[Amped]

Potential for multiple events in the long range. Always good to have a backup plan.

[psuhoffman]

@Heisy besides I once posted the H5 for 3 epic snowstorms and 3 epic fails and blocked the dates and no one could differentiate between them.  It's kind of luck with synoptic variables that determines the surface details and the difference between some close miss like that and actually getting the 2ft models teased us with until 24 hours out.  

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Not to compare events but I mentioned last night how the h5 progression is sort of March 01-ish but it’s so far out who knows


.

I like how you just drop that out there with reckless abandon, lol

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh I'm not as worried about any other fail mechanisms--just that one because that nightmare scenario would be more "this storm and storms in the future" rather than just a fail this time. Yes the 9-year snowhole SUCKS and missing to the south again would kinda hurt. But at least we would still be in the game in a future winter. I think I'm slowly learning to shake off the fails a little more and just move on to the next threat and/or next winter. Fail happens, ya feel it a bit for a day, then the mental/spiritual reset.

ok sure but I just want to get a classic amplifying coastal bomb snowstorm where I get to analyze where the deform is gonna be and most OMG images at the 2"/hr rates and worry about the exact track of some 980 monster and say "tucked" 25 times... 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Potential for multiple events in the long range. Always good to have a backup plan.

F backup plan I want them both 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ok sure but I just want to get a classic amplifying coastal bomb snowstorm where I get to analyze where the deform is gonna be and most OMG images at the 2"/hr rates and worry about the exact track of some 980 monster and say "tucked" 25 times... 

Yes sir! Been waiting 9 years yo say that again!

P.S. You responded earlier just after I went past your place of employment right around the corner from mine, lol I'm always thinking "Hey PSU!!" and how far down you drive to do that. Now THAT is dedication to snow AND profession 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes sir! Been waiting 9 years yo say that again!

P.S. You responded earlier just after I went past your place of employment right around the corner from mine, lol I'm always thinking "Hey PSU!!" and how far down you drive to do that. Now THAT is dedication to snow AND profession 

I'm actually not in the office today, they are renovating and so I'm working from home this week, other than Thursday when I am helping with a PD at my old school where I worked for 18 years!  I do get to work from home one day a week now which helps a LOT and they are pretty understanding when there is weather letting us work home unless there is an important board meeting or something that day.  

[psuhoffman]

EPS at day 15 is even BETTER today!  Feb 20 and 24 both look good and there is going to be at least one more very good wave window after that probably around Feb 28-Mar2 

[psuhoffman]

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I'm actually not in the office today, they are renovating and so I'm working from home this week, other than Thursday when I am helping with a PD at my old school where I worked for 18 years!  I do get to work from home one day a week now which helps a LOT and they are pretty understanding when there is weather letting us work home unless there is an important board meeting or something that day.  

And keeps the long range thread "HOT "  

[psuhoffman]

someone else see Feb 25 on the GEFS...I don't want to be the one to say it...what that is way too close to in terms of a setup 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

WOOF !!!!     Bring it home psu !!!!  I beg you .....  

That is an Epic look .   

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, frd said:

And keeps the long range thread "HOT "  

Unfortunately 90% of what I do now is data and budgets and progress monitoring which isn't my favorite, I miss teaching but this is way better for my kids, flexible hours and days and more pay, but I can sit here and toggle between my spreadsheets and weather lol 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

someone else see Feb 25 on the GEFS...I don't want to be the one to say it...what that is way too close to in terms of a setup 

March 2001?

Boxing day 2010?

[Heisy]

I like how you just drop that out there with reckless abandon, lol

Haha, posted this last night. Why can’t we get the March 2001 version that the models had few days out where it phases in time?!



.

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Unfortunately 90% of what I do now is data and budgets and progress monitoring which isn't my favorite, I miss teaching but this is way better for my kids, flexible hours and days and more pay, but I can sit here and toggle between my spreadsheets and weather lol 

So cool, and fun !   A win - win.   Well, a win for the kids and a win for posting the lastest maps. All good !