February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

Looks like 6-10 on Pivotal? 

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is a hit of some magnitude.

 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, looks like it's gearing up.  Yeah 210hr is nice

@CAPE Rehobeth blizzard. 5-10” for metros more or less.

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

@CAPE Rehobeth blizzard. 5-10” for metros more or less.

Wanted to post the kuchie but it’s awful - rates must be like 5:1? So here’s the 10:1 instead. Looking at temps I can’t possibly understand why they are so low

[psuhoffman]

55 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So you mean to tell me it can be possible for the deep south to score like it did and we permanently lose those big once/twice in a decade big snows?

The fact it's been colder this year is one reason I am optimistic.  But, if we are going to explore the possibility, no the deep south getting one snowstorm does not mean we are good to go and everythings fine.  Anomalies will still happen.  And their mechanism for snow from that was an EPO driven arctic show and a progressive wave along the gulf coast...that isn't our mechanism for big snow seasons up here...for the same reason it works for them...they are random and scattershot and they can end up anywhere...there is nothing about that pattern that focuses snow in our geographic area...depending on minor amplitude changes and trough locations the snow can end up way to our north or way to our south...or if we get lucky over us, but its not the reliable pattern for big snows here.  So it's a totally unrelated phenomenon to whether a -AO/NAO driven blocking pattern still works AS OFTEN.

The "as often" part is the key.  I am not saying it wont ever work...I'm not even saying it wont work this time, I think it will...but if it continues to not work for the same reason we do have to discuss how often does it still work and how reduced is our snow climo due to that change in what has always been our most reliable mechanism for snow.  

[psuhoffman]

40 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

My biggest fear for the lowlands would be a wound up system that's mainly rain east of 95. Obviously that's also climo favored this late in the season as well.

My biggest fear is its 10 days away and ANYTHING can happen...but the details we can see for this range are pretty good setup for a snowstorm in our area.  Trying to get more at this range is risky 

 

BTW this is NOT our only chance...its our FIRST chance in the window Feb 20-March 10

[Bob Chill]

16 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I mean, we'd take at this point with an option to get better

It's a weird setup. A sweep of diffuse energy *potentially* rounding the tpv. Some iterations show multiple impulses and others more cohesive.

The tpv can put a lot of oomph into forcing a ridge in front no matter what. The axis is all over the place with the globals for how energy surges north or even how the tpv evolves. I can see just about any outcome including a cohesive big dog. The flavor of winter has favored diffuse and messy/tricky. No big real estate storms and we've had some setups that could have popped and had more than 1 subforum do well lol. Hard to bet against the flavor imo but it's the most interesting setup we've had so far 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's a weird setup. A sweep of diffuse energy *potentially* rounding the tpv. Some iterations show multiple impulses and others more cohesive.

The tpv can put a lot of oomph into forcing a ridge in front no matter what. The axis is all over the place with the globals for how energy surges north or even how the tpv evolves. I can see just about any outcome including a cohesive big dog. The flavor of winter has favored diffuse and messy/tricky. No big real estate storms and we've had some setups that could have popped and had more than 1 subforum do well lol. Hard to bet against the flavor imo but it's the most interesting setup we've had so far 

At this point, I don't know what I'd do.  Take the sure thing a la the CMC or go to the slots and bet that the Euro/GFS get better.

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My biggest fear is its 10 days away and ANYTHING can happen...but the details we can see for this range are pretty good setup for a snowstorm in our area.  Trying to get more at this range is risky 

 

BTW this is NOT our only chance...its our FIRST chance in the window Feb 20-March 10

what do we need for the classic stalling storms. You would think big blocking and a stout 50-50 low would prevent this storm from zipping up the coast?

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

what do we need for the classic stalling storms. You would think big blocking and a stout 50-50 low would prevent this storm from zipping up the coast?

Those happen in a split flow nino pattern, this pattern is good but might still have too much NS zipping around to get one of those type storms...there is a reason 80% of our HECS storms happen in a nino.  Our high end might be MECS not HECS.  1996 worked because there was a monster vortex in the Atlantic clogging everything up, and I mean MONSTER...not just a regular 50/50.  It would probably take something like that.  Or you could lower your bar and be happy if we get a 8" snowstorm.  

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, I don't know what I'd do.  Take the sure thing a la the CMC or go to the slots and bet that the Euro/GFS get better.

Well the good news is you don't have to do anything...whatever is going to happen is just going to happen.  lol 

[AlexD1990]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My biggest fear is its 10 days away and ANYTHING can happen...but the details we can see for this range are pretty good setup for a snowstorm in our area.  Trying to get more at this range is risky 

 

BTW this is NOT our only chance...its our FIRST chance in the window Feb 20-March 10

So you do still feel that it's a 2 week or so window. I know there's been lots of talk about the look. Not looking as good as it initially did. So to know that it's an opportunity for multiple threat Windows is encouraging.

[AlexD1990]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Wanted to post the kuchie but it’s awful - rates must be like 5:1? So here’s the 10:1 instead. Looking at temps I can’t possibly understand why they are so low

Please God 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Those happen in a split flow nino pattern, this pattern is good but might still have too much NS zipping around to get one of those type storms...there is a reason 80% of our HECS storms happen in a nino.  Our high end might be MECS not HECS.  1996 worked because there was a monster vortex in the Atlantic clogging everything up, and I mean MONSTER...not just a regular 50/50.  It would probably take something like that.  Or you could lower your bar and be happy if we get a 8" snowstorm.  

Im guessing that monster vortex is why 24 hours before the storm...it looked like NYC was not getting into the good of the 96 storm.

I dont mind 8 inch storms except when i see 20 inches on the models 120 hours out lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

I won't be surprised if the d10ish window fails. Analogs haven't been promising. That has been the case all year. The ensemble means look similar to some bigger storm windows but when you look under the hood, no good storms are getting analog'd. We'll except for one right now... Feb 2007 is popping pretty good. Many hated that storm because it was grape nuts instead of flakes lol but that glacier was one for the books. 

I started putting much more emphasis on analogs last 5 years or so and it's remarkably accurate (in a long lead sense). Even our best looks in real time didn't have analog support. Last year that pattern was door to door. 

I'm not pooping in cereal bowls though because history rarely duplicates verbatim and this year has been productive in it's own way. Current analog sets show a high chance at some sort of coastal during the 5 day period centered around the 20th but there has yet to be much support for a solid or classic storm. Feb 2004 is popping right now as well. The ground truth of that year looks terrible on paper but man it was close to something memorable...

There is historical precedence for the upcoming window to be messier than at first glance. If that changes I'll update this line of thinking but for right now, my money is on a storm happening that can break in any direction with ease.

 

Betting against you is not smart...but I'll play devils advocate. 

1) The AO is about to drop to -5.  90% of the time when that happens there is a major snowstorm in the northeast.  True they don't always affect DC specifically but let's just assume there will be a major storm somewhere in our area given that history.  

2) The analogs aren't bad.  ALmost all had some snow near the date.  You also left out the HECS 1987 analog.  Was that intentional because @Terpeast identified that as one of the big snows we would lose completely due to warming since the 80s?  Man would that be a kick in the NADS to get a sub 990 low perfect track deform band right up 95 and its just rain.  lol.  That 2004 storm teased the crap out of me, I remember tracking it all week thinking it was a lock.  You remember that one run of the MRF with a double barrel low dropping 2 feet on us!?  Then it fell apart because the two waves didn't phase and one peice went up to our NW and the other OTS.  UGH  So close.  

3) Those analogs are on a hemisphere level.  I don't think the features important to our snow chances are any different from some of our big snows.  The issue is there are some features elsewhere, the eastern Atlantic and Europe for example, where there are significant height differences.  That matters a lot to those analogs but not our snow chances.  With that in mind...let's see what happens when they get within day 7, that's when in the past if we had a major snow coming they started to pop up on analogs.  ALso once it gets within the CIPS day 5 range that would factor out the hemispheric stuff not important to our storm and we might get a better idea how flawed this setup really is.  

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

As depicted this window looks promising for a potential coastal storm with ample cold in place.

If Feb 20 doesn't work that's our next window and I like it just as much honestly.  Maybe even better.  

[Bob Chill]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At this point, I don't know what I'd do.  Take the sure thing a la the CMC or go to the slots and bet that the Euro/GFS get better.

All models missed the precipitous AO drop at D10+. That thing just tank without saying sorry. It's the reason it's snowing today and why a legit stretch of possible warmth went poof.

I think models have the general idea right for the 20th. Meaning a decent precip maker covering a good chunk of real estate is heading our way from the SW. It wouldn't take much for it to become an "easy lol" storm. From long range, imo only, a South whiff seems the least likely to me with this setup. All rain doesn't seem very likely either and a cohesive storm needs more than a little help but ingredients are there for it.

We'll have a much better idea once all our snow washes away and the sun comes out again

[stormtracker]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well the good news is you don't have to do anything...whatever is going to happen is just going to happen.  lol 

Thanks PSU.  I could only find sage words and phrases like that here. 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Betting against you is not smart...but I'll play devils advocate. 

1) The AO is about to drop to -5.  90% of the time when that happens there is a major snowstorm in the northeast.  True they don't always affect DC specifically but let's just assume there will be a major storm somewhere in our area given that history.  

2) The analogs aren't bad.  ALmost all had some snow near the date.  You also left out the HECS 1987 analog.  Was that intentional because @Terpeast identified that as one of the big snows we would lose completely due to warming since the 80s?  Man would that be a kick in the NADS to get a sub 990 low perfect track deform band right up 95 and its just rain.  lol.  That 2004 storm teased the crap out of me, I remember tracking it all week thinking it was a lock.  You remember that one run of the MRF with a double barrel low dropping 2 feet on us!?  Then it fell apart because the two waves didn't phase and one peice went up to our NW and

Yea, AO is bonkers this time and will most likely produce. Agree 100%. Front side of big drops don't produce very often though. If I had my PC set up I could dig thru the data but iirc, it's at least 3 to 1 with 6+" events hitting on the eventual rise. Not KU flip stuff. Just on the relax in general. KU flip discussion will prob start up in 7 days or so lolol

87 is on the list as are a few others but unless I missed something, it's been fleeting and not top 5. When I mention analogs it usually means they've been hitting top 5 for at least several days. If 87 was up there I didn't catch it. 

I know SNE has been eying the 77 and 78 analogs lol. I like seeing them. They just weren't configured right for us overall but man they could have been big. 

 

 

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

If Feb 20 doesn't work that's our next window and I like it just as much honestly.  Maybe even better.  

Its way out there, but the general h5 look with cold entrenched implies a slightly offshore track vs just inland or tucked.

[psuhoffman]

20 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

So you do still feel that it's a 2 week or so window. I know there's been lots of talk about the look. Not looking as good as it initially did. So to know that it's an opportunity for multiple threat Windows is encouraging.

Well...what are "THEY" looking at...this all looks good to me

Day 15 on the EPS and GEFS

First week of March on extended GEFS and EPS

So is there something else out there that doesn't look good...or do they think THAT doesn't look good?

If they think that doesn't look good then they don't know what good is, and I don't just mean that in a snarky way, some think because the crazy stupid high latitude block is weakening...not less nutso deep red up top there...its "not as good".

But our best snow chances usually come AFTER crazy blocking not at the peak of it.  Part of this can be too much blocking but another part of it is that blocking is often initiated when tropical forcing moves into the western pacific.   (MJO phase 7).  This causes ridging in the central pacific to move poleward and destructively interfere with the TPV.  But this same forcing also promotes a PNA trough and SER.  That is why at the start of blocking we rarely get a snowstorm and it usually takes a wave or two to pull the boundary south.  

By the time the tropical forcing enters the central pacific the blocking has often retrograded to Canada and begins to weaken.  But the baroclinic boundary is south, waves are propagating across 50/50 reinforcing the confluence into the northeast, and the MJO is now favoring a PNA ridge and eastern trough so systems are more likely to dig and amplify into the TN Valley and up the east coast not up into the Ohio Valley and new england.  

This is the start of our best window for snow.  Usually the pattern does not collapse immediately but last 1-2 more weeks from that point on when we see this degree of AO drop.  So I think we have at least until March 5 and probably more like March 10 or 15 before things start to fall apart and the snow season is OVA.  

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Yea, AO is bonkers this time and will most likely produce. Agree 100%. Front side of big drops don't produce very often though. If I had my PC set up I could dig thru the data but iirc, it's at least 3 to 1 with 6+" events hitting on the eventual rise. Not KU flip stuff. Just on the relax in general. KU flip discussion will prob start up in 7 days or so lolol

87 is on the list as are a few others but unless I missed something, it's been fleeting and not top 5. When I mention analogs it usually means they've been hitting top 5 for at least several days. If 87 was up there I didn't catch it. 

I know SNE has been eying the 77 and 78 analogs lol. I like seeing them. They just weren't configured right for us overall but man they could have been big. 

 

 

They got about 12" from that 78 storm up here...Baltimore did ok with 9" but yea SW of there...no bueno sharp cutoff on that miller b ish.  

The thing is some of the top analogs when I go look at the h5 don't even seem that similar to me..."where it matters to us" but again those analogs are on a whole hemisphere level so I wonder how applicable they are right now.  We kind of have an odd pattern as Chuck has been pointing out...its pretty rare to get this level of AO blocking while having a ridge in the central Atlantic like that.  I wonder if its throwing off the analogs.  IMO the AO is way way way more important to our snow chances than some of the anomalies elsewhere throwing the analogs off.  

[psuhoffman]

Here I am sitting in a snow hole 

High above the Mid Atlantic 

Northeast MD is do 

But there's nothing I can due

bum bum bum bum bum

[psuhoffman]

Euro is a miss southeast, so that should quiet the "its too warm" fears for a bit.  This is setup to be a big storm somewhere and our area is historically the target with this kind of configuration...but it could easily be slightly north or south of us...that's up to details we won't know for a few more days at least.  

[Ji]

Here I am sitting in a snow hole 
High above the Mid Atlantic 

Northeast MD is do 
But there's nothing I can due
bum bum bum bum bum

Wow it already become a weak southern slider. Who would of seen that coming this winter

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa OH NO the euro takes 3 straight waves south of us...suppressed by the monster block...Where is Chucks +NAO when we need it lol 

Too much blocking!!!

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Wow it already become a weak southern slider. Who would of seen that coming this winter

Maybe, or maybe not...but it wouldn't shock me if we have to wait through a suppressed wave or two before we get ours...or maybe we are unlucky and its too much blocking and SE VA ends up with a historic period.  Who knows.  But it's one op run at super range.  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here I am sitting in a snow hole 

High above the Mid Atlantic 

Northeast MD is do 

But there's nothing I can due

bum bum bum bum bum

 

Dover, DE to the beaches have been the winners this winter so far, and that looks to continue today.

Not getting my hopes up, so far this winter season DC has more snow than I do, so does parts of the deep South.   

Need something dramatic to happen, which I think does not happen even though I talk about the - AO 

The negative AO is jack shit without a juicy STJ

You need that STJ to bring in the goods from the land of almonds to hit the our favored over - running zone. These lame POS waves with with over the top blocking are not doing it up North in this forum.  Even with short wave lenghts and more seasonal warmth battling to bring the buds up North the jackpot snowfall zones have been South.  

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Maybe, or maybe not...but it wouldn't shock me if we have to wait through a suppressed wave or two before we get ours...or maybe we are unlucky and its too much blocking and SE VA ends up with a historic period.  Who knows.  But it's one op run at super range.  

Your not concerned about the seaonal trends, and results so far ?   Whether the blocking is TPV or -AO induced it is resulting in the same outcomes, snowfall favored South.   

[Maestrobjwa]

19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Here I am sitting in a snow hole 

High above the Mid Atlantic 

Northeast MD is do 

But there's nothing I can due

bum bum bum bum bum

What song are you parodying?

And...yeah that hurts my feelings. But at least that wouldn't be because of too warm. At least ya know with a stronger stj you could still score like that in the future.

[cbmclean]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa OH NO the euro takes 3 straight waves south of us...suppressed by the monster block...Where is Chucks +NAO when we need it lol 

Too much blocking!!!

Please note the "DO NOT TRIGGER WEANIES" sign.

[mitchnick]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Maestrobjwa OH NO the euro takes 3 straight waves south of us...suppressed by the monster block...Where is Chucks +NAO when we need it lol 

Too much blocking!!!

Yeah, I'm just as worried as you.