February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GEFS does not have an inland track etched in stone like the amped GFS.

Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.

[Ji]

Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.

Where is the rest of it?

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.

A nice improvement over 0z.

[Maestrobjwa]

Hey @psuhoffman how real is the risk of the SER this go around? To my amateur eyes that may be the only way this fails (or at least...doesn't snow as much as it could have). A post from the NYC forum:

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, the risk around the 20th is the -AO linking up with the Southeast Ridge again. This would result in the low hugging the coast. So the inland regions could really cash in while the coast gets another mixed precipitation event. Still too early to be sure since it’s outside the model reliable range.

Just about every other February -AO in the -4 to -5 range had a KU within about a week or so of the occurrence. Like in February 2021, 2010, 1978, and 1969. So it would be very disappointing if we get 3 -AO link ups with the Southeast Ridge.

I posted the other day how this has become a frequent occurrence in the 2020s. The last -4 AO link up was only a little over 2 years ago in December 2022. Prior to that we had one near -4 in December 2012. Then before that it was in January 1998. So this has become a much more frequent occurrence. Hopefully, we can find a way to buck the trend around the 20th to avoid the cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream pattern we have been in since 18-19. 
 

2 Southeast Ridge link ups in near term

 

Third one possible around the 20th

 

 

 

 

Now on the ensembles you don't see that linkage as of now...

[CAPE]

Still spread wrt timing obv, but this panel captures the flavor. Members favoring coastal tracks for the most part. 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey @psuhoffman how real is the risk of the SER this go around? To my amtwur eyes that may be the only way this fails (or at least...doesn't snow as much as it could have). A post from the NYC forum:

Now on the ensembles you don't see that linkage as of now...

Well let’s be clear what we’re talking about. There is always some ridging in between waves. That’s basic wave physics. Trough ridge trough. What he is calling the SER linkup is just the heights/ridges in between the troughs getting too high. In other words too warm. It simply a function of it being warmer. What 20 years ago would have been white or a shade of blue is now red on that plot. What that could mean on the surface is as the wave/storm approaches the antecedent airmass is now 35 instead of 30.  That resists the WAA ahead of the wave less and pushes the thermal boundary NW and now 95 is on the rain side instead of snow.  
 

But all that is a fancy way of saying “is it getting too warm for that setup to work anymore?”  We could debate how much of that warmer issue is from warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs or “you know what” or a decade pacific cycle but the question remains “in the current thermal base state does that work”. 
 

My answer is it better because those plots show exactly how we get 90% of our big snowstorms. Again progressive waves are not going to replace that part of our snow climo.  Baltimore is not getting a 30 or 40” winter or a 20” hecs from a epo progressive wave pattern. That isn’t the path to our big snowy winters or storms. 
 

Yes it’s concerning this linkage that he is talking about keeps happening for the reason above. We NEED that to work for us. So I’m going to keep beating my head into this wall and praying blocking starts working again until it’s been proven 100% if can’t and at that point I’ll put my cap on the wall, hang up my coat and bid you all a fond farewell and check out for the last time and simply wait a few years until I can move to Vermont where blocking has still been working lately!  Because in the end I don’t really do this for a 20” winter or a 5” snow. I track to try to get those 50” wingers and 20” snows we historically get a couple times a decade. And among the way I’ll take those 5” scraps as consolation. But if we can’t get the real goods anymore this will just be frustrating to me and for my health I’ll stop doing it and move somewhere that can still get what I want. 

[psuhoffman]

@Maestrobjwa but I think this time will work. This winter has been colder. The pacific base state isn’t has hostile. Look at this weeks it’s snowing in what was a torch pattern the last 8 years usually.  So it should work better, if it doesn’t…uh oh. 

[Heisy]

Mitch I need an update that the 6z euro Ai is a hit for the 20th


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[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Mitch I need an update that the 6z euro Ai is a hit for the 20th


.

It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling.

[Heisy]

It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling.

Haha no worries being sarcastic. Yeah so far it’s basically messy progression. Long way to go


.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

It's a mess. This is the 3rd run in a row with 2 areas of precip and main area is a low offshore that clips ENE. I didn't bother posting because you know it does crazy stuff post day 5 like all modeling.

Scroll this forward. There aren't any nice 500mb map depictions on the Euro site. Wait for TT.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202502110600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502181800

[frd]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Coastal is indicated by the snowfall mean.

Highest risk might be a miss to the East for us,  or at the least an issue the further North you go,  despite the higher mean.  

Blocking still being worked out by the models.  Have to check out the latest AO.  I believe the NP block might trend even stonger and last longer as well. 

 

[frd]

 

 

Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO.

A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed.

This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. 

The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well.  

 

[mitchnick]

Just now, frd said:

 

 

Wow, the AO continues to drop further down, today's concensus is a - 5 SD AO.

A decent amount of members take it below 6 SD and the recovery back up to neutral is postponed.

This again raises the bar for a rather potent MECS sometimes next week or the week after. 

The other indices also continue to improve in the PNA and NAO domains as well.  

 

Don't even suggest to me it goes to our south, or else! Lol

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Don't even suggest to me it goes to our south, or else! Lol

My money is on miss East this time.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

My money is on miss East this time.

If there would be a fail scenario, I would MUCH rather it be that one. The other would indicate a bigger problem as PSU explained.

[frd]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

If there would be a fail scenario, I would MUCH rather it be that one. The other would indicate a bigger problem as PSU explained.

If that happens it is still a fail, and it further reduces the historical connection between favorable indices and measurable snowfall. 

 

[Bob Chill]

I won't be surprised if the d10ish window fails. Analogs haven't been promising. That has been the case all year. The ensemble means look similar to some bigger storm windows but when you look under the hood, no good storms are getting analog'd. We'll except for one right now... Feb 2007 is popping pretty good. Many hated that storm because it was grape nuts instead of flakes lol but that glacier was one for the books. 

I started putting much more emphasis on analogs last 5 years or so and it's remarkably accurate (in a long lead sense). Even our best looks in real time didn't have analog support. Last year that pattern was door to door. 

I'm not pooping in cereal bowls though because history rarely duplicates verbatim and this year has been productive in it's own way. Current analog sets show a high chance at some sort of coastal during the 5 day period centered around the 20th but there has yet to be much support for a solid or classic storm. Feb 2004 is popping right now as well. The ground truth of that year looks terrible on paper but man it was close to something memorable...

There is historical precedence for the upcoming window to be messier than at first glance. If that changes I'll update this line of thinking but for right now, my money is on a storm happening that can break in any direction with ease.

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

But all that is a fancy way of saying “is it getting too warm for that setup to work anymore?”  We could debate how much of that warmer issue is from warm Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic SSTs or “you know what” or a decade pacific cycle but the question remains “in the current thermal base state does that work”. 
 

My answer is it better because those plots show exactly how we get 90% of our big snowstorms. Again progressive waves are not going to replace that part of our snow climo.  Baltimore is not getting a 30 or 40” winter or a 20” hecs from a epo progressive wave pattern. That isn’t the path to our big snowy winters or storms.

So you mean to tell me it can be possible for the deep south to score like it did and we permanently lose those big once/twice in a decade big snows?

[CAPE]

As depicted this window looks promising for a potential coastal storm with ample cold in place.

[AlexD1990]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

As depicted this window looks promising for a potential coastal storm with ample cold in place.

My biggest fear for the lowlands would be a wound up system that's mainly rain east of 95. Obviously that's also climo favored this late in the season as well.

[stormtracker]

GFS has snow so far on the 20th.  impressive wedge down to like GA.  Seem precarious tho

[stormtracker]

So far, next frame...still holding.

[stormtracker]

Ok, finally lose them.  This a totally new evolution of this one.  Ah, the good ol GFS

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Ok, finally lose them.  This a totally new evolution of this one.  Ah, the good ol GFS

We get smacked pretty good first - 4-6" before mixy to rain?

[Scraff]

Pass. We can do better. 

[WxUSAF]

GGEM is a hit of some magnitude.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

GGEM is a hit of some magnitude.

Yeah, looks like it's gearing up.  Yeah 210hr is nice

[jayyy]

GGEM is a hit of some magnitude.

Only 9 days of relentless tracking and emotional rollercoasters to go!

[stormtracker]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

We get smacked pretty good first - 4-6" before mixy to rain?

I mean, we'd take at this point with an option to get better