February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Did you do way better in 2013-14 than south and east or was well distributed. I know we destroyed them in the Feb 2014 storm but that was amped. I even turned to sleet !

Yes but there were extenuating circumstances. First of all the boundary ended up set up about the same place a lot. And it was just luck that it set up where it did. I was up in central PA that one year and got a lot less snow then Manchester that winter.  It was just dumb luck the waves went where they did. 
 

Also there were two very amplified storms that season in Feb and March where we jacked up here. But compared to the mean I won’t do as well up here over the long run in an epo driven wave pattern. If that was the pediment pattern every winter for example (using years with that predominant pattern like 2009, 2018, 2022) the avg snow for here would probably be like 26” instead of 40 and the avg snow for somewhere like where @CAPE lives would be like 18” which might even be above the overall avg. Yea being NW would help some but not nearly as much as it does in a more amplified blocking pattern!  This area can go over 80” in a winter, even 100”! But most of those years had blocking and amplified storms not progressive wave patterns. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

They look +NAO to me. Just confirms that our best snowstorms happen with favorable Pacific and +NAO (that's why negative heading to neutral is so strong.. -NAO is actually a very dry pattern). 

On the day of those storms yes numerically the NAO was neutral to positive. But there had been blocking and I consider the loading pattern days before more important. Second most don’t consider the nao by the numerical metric. If they see ridging near Greenland over a vortex under it near 50/50 they call it a -NAO, but numerically it’s actually a -AO. But I’m not interested in a semantics argument about terms. 
 

My point is that’s a good pattern for a snowstorm. I don’t care what we call it. 

[winter_warlock]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

On the day of those storms yes numerically the NAO was neutral to positive. But there had been blocking and I consider the loading pattern days before more important. Second most don’t consider the nao by the numerical metric. If they see ridging near Greenland over a vortex under it near 50/50 they call it a -NAO, but numerically it’s actually a -AO. But I’m not interested in a semantics argument about terms. 
 

My point is that’s a good pattern for a snowstorm. I don’t care what we call it. 

Amen brother!!

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Here's 20 top analogs to the Atlantic/Arctic pattern

[Daniel Boone]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Here's 20 top analogs to the Atlantic/Arctic pattern

Some good one's in there. 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground. 

Do you think this is better than the blocking that we had (too late, lol) in March 2018? I ask because...seeing as only one HECS occurred in a Nina, I'm wondering whether the pattern we have setting up next week would be subject to the same stuff that messed things up in 2018. How similar/different would thos be compared to 2018?

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you think this is better than the blocking that we had (too late, lol) in March 2018? I ask because...seeing as only one HECS occurred in a Nina, I'm wondering whether the pattern we have setting up next week would be subject to the same stuff that messed things up in 2018. How similar/different would thos be compared to 2018?

Why do you keep talking about March 2018 as a fail?  It gave us one of our biggest snowstorms since 2016!  

generally 4-8” across the population corridor with 8+ north of 70!  And had it been a couple weeks earlier that storm would have been 12+ across the whole area. 
 

That block didn’t develop until the very end of Feb.  The storm hit 20 days later after a few misses. This block is developing around Feb 15 so if the same progression repeated that storm would be March 5 and a 10-20” snow across our area!  
 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Do you think this is better than the blocking that we had (too late, lol) in March 2018? I ask because...seeing as only one HECS occurred in a Nina, I'm wondering whether the pattern we have setting up next week would be subject to the same stuff that messed things up in 2018. How similar/different would thos be compared to 2018?

But why is your bar a HECS?  Those are super rare. If we get a 6-12” snowstorm across the area that’s a win. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

But why is your bar a HECS?  Those are super rare. If we get a 6-12” snowstorm across the area that’s a win. 

 Agreed I'd take a 6 -12 inch storm any day !! They are kinda rare in central md!!

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Why do you keep talking about March 2018 as a fail?  It gave us one of our biggest snowstorms since 2016!  

generally 4-8” across the population corridor with 8+ north of 70!  And had it been a couple weeks earlier that storm would have been 12+ across the whole area. 
 

That block didn’t develop until the very end of Feb.  The storm hit 20 days later after a few misses. This block is developing around Feb 15 so if the same progression repeated that storm would be March 5 and a 10-20” snow across our area!  
 

Largely because that one storm where the GL low ruined it is what sticks out in my mind the most. And wasn't that the same month we had thar windstorm while the storm clobbered NE? I know we got some nickle and dimes...and that Spring storm was rather entertaining--so you're right that wasn't a complete fail. But the big one we missed is I guess just annoyed me that much, lol

[Heisy]

End of the icon, for those as bored as me




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[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Largely because that one storm where the GL low ruined it is what sticks out in my mind the most. And wasn't that the same month we had thar windstorm while the storm clobbered NE? I know we got some nickle and dimes...and that Spring storm was rather entertaining--so you're right that wasn't a complete fail. But the big one we missed is I guess just annoyed me that much, lol

You’re thinking of March 2017 that was ruined by a lakes low. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Heisy said:

End of the icon, for those as bored as me




.

The low is 4.3 miles north of 50/50 

[Terpeast]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The low is 4.3 miles north of 50/50 

Toss

[Maestrobjwa]

29 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But why is your bar a HECS?  Those are super rare. If we get a 6-12” snowstorm across the area that’s a win. 

It's not, actually. But it's certainly higher than the 3-5" fringe events we have been getting in our respective yards! And 6-12" sounds pretty nice right about now. But like you I do want a big dog since it's been so long, and because of the warning level snow drought in my area (and even yours in some cases).

[Ji]

Gfs up to no good. Let’s see where it goes

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs up to no good. Let’s see where it goes

It's definitely started making (good) trouble in the neighborhood.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Gfs up to no good. Let’s see where it goes

The big ones lock in early… we say for the 3rd time this year gearing up for what we’ll find out is a 3-5” snowstorm 10 days later 

[Heisy]

Bomb incoming on the GFS


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[Scraff]

Cue the Jaws music…

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The big ones lock in early… we say for the 3rd time this year gearing up for what we’ll find out is a 3-5” snowstorm 10 days later 

Not the same setup. This is starting to look like either all boom or nothing, lol

[brooklynwx99]

this ring a bell? i’m not gonna say it out loud

[NorthArlington101]

The rain/snow line as depicted doesn’t work for me here. Toss

[Heisy]

Gfs up to no good. Let’s see where it goes

Look at cmc does that h5 progression remind you of something? You better know!


.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

The rain/snow line as depicted doesn’t work for me here. Toss

That's a psu logbook run. Definitely toss!

[Heisy]

this ring a bell? i’m not gonna say it out loud

March 2001


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[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Heisy said:

March 2001


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I'm gonna guess that was good for y'all up there, lol I don't think it was anything of note down here.

[winter_warlock]

Gfs takes it too far west.  I95 is slow to rain but 10 days out. It won't look like that in days to come lol

[winter_warlock]

Cmc has different look.    More south and east. Snow  to 95

[winter_warlock]

10 days to go. Gonna be a wild ride lol