February Medium/Long Range Thread

[yoda]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows. 

Will someone PLEASE... get this man a warning (taken from John Wick Chapter 2)

[Ji]

42 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows. 

we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing

[WVclimo]

 

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing

DCA could very well be ahead of me for the season by Thursday.  I think that happened in 2009, but it’s rare.

[stormy]

At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches.

I was and am at 6 - 12.

At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, stormy said:

At 6 am the NWS was woefully deficient with their WSW giving my area only 4 - 6 inches.

I was and am at 6 - 12.

At 3 pm, NWS woke up and raised expectations for Augusta to 5 - 10.

I think you meant to put this in the other thread.

[Ralph Wiggum]

 

 

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I think you meant to put this in the other thread.

I can certainly do that.

[NorthArlington101]

That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol

[mitchnick]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol

Do you have BWI?

[IronTy]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol

Where on WB are you getting those?  JB made a post about how to get them not that long ago but, and I consider myself as pretty intelligent, I for the life of me couldn't find them. 

[midatlanticweather]

This looks ... good!

 

[Heisy]

18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles


.

[stormtracker]

GFS now has the PSU storm like the EUro does

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles


.

And the bullseye is DC/BWI.

Where do I sign to quit?

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

18z gfs now on board (fantasy land) of course, but at least Mitch now can say the OPs would be on board. I knew this would happen after looking at the ensembles


.

 

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

GFS now has the PSU storm like the EUro does

 

Glad to see that is showing up again in ops runs.  I really think we need to keep seeing this show up.  There were a couple or so ops GFS runs in the past week that were showing a good storm around the PSU timeframe.  Including the ridiculous 40"+ one from 06Z a couple or so days back.

[NorthArlington101]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Do you have BWI?

[NorthArlington101]

26 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Where on WB are you getting those?  JB made a post about how to get them not that long ago but, and I consider myself as pretty intelligent, I for the life of me couldn't find them. 

Charts -> Meteograms -> Ensembles (your choice) -> 24hr snow/members

[Ji]

Gfs

[LeesburgWx]

The way the GFS pushed the moisture up to us moving NE and then a slow push eastward 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

we need to bring back the old N and W of town will do better thing

Besides the fact I’m a big storm chaser and epo driven progressive wave patterns aren’t that… I also probably hate them because I moved way up here to get more snow and those patterns almost eliminate any advantage being NW gives you.  It’s just luck where those waves traverse west to east and it’s typically cold enough even on coast as long as you’re north of the boundary. I’d love those patterns if I lived on the Delmarva or the northern neck.  For them a wound up coastal can end up problematic because it’s hard to stay on the cold side closer to the coast.  

[IronTy]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Charts -> Meteograms -> Ensembles (your choice) -> 24hr snow/members

Thank you, found them!   I was searching all over the direct ensembles sub-menu and couldn't find anything.  Didn't realize they were under the charts menu!

[87storms]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That threat at range is insanely boom or bust. Look at those box and whisker plots lol

I never really look at these, but they're interesting.  Seems like they include data beyond the "1.5 x IQR" threshold because some of those points seem like outliers.  Also curious why the control follows the skew more so than the mean.  Regardless, that timeframe does kinda line up with more favorable indices.

[brooklynwx99]

GEFS liking it

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS liking it

The pattern is locked and loaded. But now it’s time to cash it into snow on the ground. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

24 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS liking it

Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough

[ravensrule]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough

And i thought the shut the F up Chuck was gone. 

[Ji]

Besides the fact I’m a big storm chaser and epo driven progressive wave patterns aren’t that… I also probably hate them because I moved way up here to get more snow and those patterns almost eliminate any advantage being NW gives you.  It’s just luck where those waves traverse west to east and it’s typically cold enough even on coast as long as you’re north of the boundary. I’d love those patterns if I lived on the Delmarva or the northern neck.  For them a wound up coastal can end up problematic because it’s hard to stay on the cold side closer to the coast.  

Did you do way better in 2013-14 than south and east or was well distributed. I know we destroyed them in the Feb 2014 storm but that was amped. I even turned to sleet !

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Be aware of this pattern though... But the Pacific side is favorable, so it should be cold enough

Chuck, first let me say you’re right about the numeric NAO, because of how they calculate it (which most don’t know) that’s probably a neutral NAO. But everything else I’m like ????

First of all that vortex is a hair off from 50/50 and because of how the heights curve on that map it’s more east not north of 50/50.  If you go back a day it’s centered right over 50/50. 

As it is with the wave before, but it doesn’t matter because there is a huge SER that’s not had time to get beat down due to still hostile pacific forcing. 

And if that 50/50 location doesn’t work then now did this

or this

happen?  The Atlantic vortex was in that same spot for two of our biggest HECS storms. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

+NAO is a wetter pattern.. so a slightly displaced NE 50/50 low can correlate with storms.. and snowstorms if the Pacific is favorable. The pattern looks somewhat like 13-14 and 14-15, with the monster +NAO those Winter's just south this time and +ridging over Greenland and AO zone. The important point about 50/50 low though is where it is when storms are coming.. because it shifts around a lot.. is it a south-based +NAO for the storm, or an ideal 50/50 low? I was just pointing out that the map brooklynwx posted, it's not a slam dunk for arctic air.. an Atlantic SLP gradient in that spot actually has a slight correlation with SE ridge... doesn't mean it can't snow. Again, +NAO like that one, with a favorable Pacific is a snow pattern. precip is +0.50 correlated to +NAO, which in this case may slightly overlap 50/50 low some of the time. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

or this

happen?  The Atlantic vortex was in that same spot for two of our biggest HECS storms. 

They look +NAO to me. Just confirms that our best snowstorms happen with favorable Pacific and +NAO (that's why negative heading to neutral is so strong.. -NAO is actually a very dry pattern).