February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Heisy]

Much better patterns on cmc and gfs.


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[Heisy]

Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the [mention=2304]psuhoffman[/mention] storm

Yea with that type of pattern I’d venture the ensembles offer some hits if they’re similar


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[Daniel Boone]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the unusual trajectory of this block, rightfully pointing out it originates as more of an AO than NAO block...but I don't see why it really matters much.  

In 5 days for example...

The next wave is better...but still MIGHT have too much SER but its heading the right way, but agian the next wave ends up right across 50/50

Finally the 3rd wave to come along would be entering into this environment

the pacific forcing is now into the central pacific, phase 8, and we see the PNA is now favorable and the trough is centered in the east, and the block as retrograded into the canonical west based baffin island where blocks go to slowly sit and rot.   Yea it got there from a further north trajectory but as long as it ends up the same place and causes the same reaction near 50/50 why would it matter much to our snow chance since the reaction near 50/50 is what actually makes the block important.  PD2 for example we didn't have blocking in a classical sense but we had a monster PV displacement into the 50/50 that mimicked blocking for our snow purposes.  

 

the issue here imo isn't the blocking, there is a vortex right over 50/50 exactly where we want it...but the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific and so there is a SER and the PNA has yet to become favorable so without a lot of antecedent cold that wave is problematicmaybe a snow to rain if there is a split of the energy.  

Excellent Post and explanation! The great Feb 2015 Pattern featured a solid +NAO BUT, a continual Parade of LP's kept training into SE Canada that in a sense mimicked a standing 50-50. Shows how important that is.

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm

@Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the location of the block rightfully pointing out it originates as a AO not NAO block...but not sure I see why it matters in the long run.  

Here at day 5 the issue isn't the blocking IMO, we have a low right at 50/50 which is the important thing.  The reason blocking is important is getting that reaction.  PD2 for example didn't have blocking in a classic sense but a PV displacement into the 50/50 space created the same effect for our snow purposes.  

The issue here is because the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific we have a SER and a hostile PNA.  

The next wave is getting better but might still have a little too much SER but again the blocking worked the next wave crosses 50/50 also. 

Finally the next wave will enter this setup

With the tropical forcing now into the central pacific phase 8 the trough axis is in the east with a favorable PNA and again we see lower heights across 50/50.  Plus even though the block started out north it retrograded to the same spot a greenland block typically ends up, Baffin Island, where west based blocks go to sit and rot and where we typically see them for our big snowstorms.  It got there from a slightly further north trajectory initially from a merging of an EPO and Scandy blocks, but as long as it ends up the same place with the same impact on the 50/50 domain I fail to see why it affects our snow chances.  

The issue with the first 2 waves is the pattern has not matured.  Blocking typically starts to set up in Phase 7 but the SER takes until 8 to get beat down.  Its a little frustrating that the operationals continue to show thermal issues even once we get the perfect longwave configuration out around day 10+ but I want to wait a few more days and see if they adjust before worrying too much. 

All 3 major ensemble guidance shows the absolute perfect 100% what we want in every way h5 pattern for a big snowstorm day 12-16 right now.  If that doesn't work I don't even know what we are looking for anymore.  

[psuhoffman]

Sorry for the double post everyone, the initial post was missing something and when I tried to edit it accidentally deleted it and had to re-post.  

[JenkinsJinkies]

It's 10 days out and it looks like the pattern didn't collapse.

[mitchnick]

30 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 has focused on the location of the block rightfully pointing out it originates as a AO not NAO block...but not sure I see why it matters in the long run.  

Here at day 5 the issue isn't the blocking IMO, we have a low right at 50/50 which is the important thing.  The reason blocking is important is getting that reaction.  PD2 for example didn't have blocking in a classic sense but a PV displacement into the 50/50 space created the same effect for our snow purposes.  

The issue here is because the tropical forcing is still in the western pacific we have a SER and a hostile PNA.  

The next wave is getting better but might still have a little too much SER but again the blocking worked the next wave crosses 50/50 also. 

Finally the next wave will enter this setup

With the tropical forcing now into the central pacific phase 8 the trough axis is in the east with a favorable PNA and again we see lower heights across 50/50.  Plus even though the block started out north it retrograded to the same spot a greenland block typically ends up, Baffin Island, where west based blocks go to sit and rot and where we typically see them for our big snowstorms.  It got there from a slightly further north trajectory initially from a merging of an EPO and Scandy blocks, but as long as it ends up the same place with the same impact on the 50/50 domain I fail to see why it affects our snow chances.  

The issue with the first 2 waves is the pattern has not matured.  Blocking typically starts to set up in Phase 7 but the SER takes until 8 to get beat down.  Its a little frustrating that the operationals continue to show thermal issues even once we get the perfect longwave configuration out around day 10+ but I want to wait a few more days and see if they adjust before worrying too much. 

All 3 major ensemble guidance shows the absolute perfect 100% what we want in every way h5 pattern for a big snowstorm day 12-16 right now.  If that doesn't work I don't even know what we are looking for anymore.  

Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats  as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week!

[cbmclean]

54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Sorry for the double post everyone, the initial post was missing something and when I tried to edit it accidentally deleted it and had to re-post.  

I'm glad you said that, as I was starting to think there was a rip in the space-time continuum as Daniel Boone replied to your post before you made it. 

[WxUSAF]

Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.

[HighStakes]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.

Cold storm too.

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Euro has the @psuhoffman Storm. Big dog.

MECS on euro
 

 

[cbmclean]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats  as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week!

If nothing else, one positive to take from this year is that we had what appeared to be an impactful trip through the cold phases and then it looks like it's going to zip through the crap phases at a decent clip. It had every excuse to blow up in phase 6; it's a Nina February after all.  And if we recall, that's exactly what the GEFS was predicting not long ago, and it probably wasn't a coincidence that the GEFS was also predicting a +100000 dm SER that had Chuck drooling. 

I don't think this could have happened in 2022, or even last year. 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

MECS on euro
 

 

No matter what happens tomorrow, its always nice to know there is something else brewing on the horizon.  

[WxUSAF]

3 globals really aren’t that far apart at H5 for next week. Subtle placement and strength differences results in a MECS to clear and cold. I’d expect ensembles to be pretty lit up?

[brooklynwx99]

this is so sick lmao

[Heisy]

EPS lit like a Christmas tree


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[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS.... for 10 days out that looks great to me!

[Weather Will]

We are in rare air for around here: snow on our doorsteps and another storm on the tracker. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

We are in rare air for around here: snow on our doorsteps and another storm on the tracker. 

AND...during a February in a nina, lol

[WxUSAF]

30 minutes ago, Heisy said:

EPS lit like a Christmas tree


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3-4” mean focused on that D10 period. GEPS looks close to EPS on H5, but weaker surface reflection. GEFS farthest off, but still not a bad look. 

[DarkSharkWX]

this is quite nice

[psuhoffman]

EPS 

Setup...50/50, west based block, energy diving into the midwest amplifying into the TN Valley

3 day snowfall centered on......Feb 20 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Maybe we'll get a quick correction with threats  as the week continues because the latest Gefs and Eps now get the wave into phase 8 by the Thursday or Friday this week!

There is a bit of a lag though 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There is a bit of a lag though 

https://x.com/TrackerSacker/status/1889003317369696267

 

I post link this for the mind bending animation,  not the source,  but look at the wave breaking in the NW Atlantic and watch the West Coast and up to Alaska improvements as the model see the MJO phase 8 arrives. 

Also,  a tendency possible between days 10 and days 15 to 16 for multiple threats arriving out of the TN Valley.  

[HighStakes]

Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. 

[Heisy]

Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. 

Yeah it’s actually an important step in the progression. It sets up the 50/50


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[mattie g]

2 hours ago, DarkSharkWX said:

MECS on euro
 

 

Red rocket storm

[DDweatherman]

1 hour ago, HighStakes said:

Perhaps the weekend storm cutting will set us up nice for a few days later. 

I have actually been rooting for a cutter, looking at the evolution, that definitely helps with a 50/50 for a blocked miller A or hybrid system coming up from the south. 

[Heisy]

Euro OP and EPS look almost identical at day 10 which is pretty impressive


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[aldie 22]

Lawd baby jeebus please let one of these hit the far NE crew with warning level snows.