February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Eskimo Joe]

4 hours ago, Superstorm said:

That looks is fantastic!

La-la-la lock it in.

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest EPS extended, lot of potential for fun times ahead.

I'd feel a whole lot better if we could get some consistent hits on operational runs. Gem is the only one with that right now, and it only has 2 decent runs in a row. 

I had a longer post that I decided to erase, so I'll leave it at that for now.

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'd feel a whole lot better if we could get some consistent hits on operational runs. Gem is the only one with that right now, and it only has 2 decent runs in a row. 

I had a longer post that I decided to erase, so I'll leave it at that for now.

Takes some luck too....

[Daniel Boone]

4 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I actually like that timeframe because there is a -EPO. It's a nice Polar connection of ridging from AO to EPO, and maybe even +PNA. If 500mb doesn't change, it should trend more wintry for the Mid Atlantic. But it's still 11 days away, but I really do especially like that -EPO modeled right now. 

That Day 7 storm though, is really +NAO. That low just south of Greenland gets up to -500dm. That's strong positive! It's a rare case of super -AO and super +NAO at the same time! 

Edit: I just saw for the Day 11 storm, models keep holding onto the south-based +NAO throughout their run. Just know that -EPO/+NAO is more ice, but +PNA/-EPO/+NAO is more snow. 

Yeah, need that +PNA to pop . Big time business if it does enough. Feb 2015 had a strong +PNA and + NAO. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

I'd feel a whole lot better if we could get some consistent hits on operational runs. Gem is the only one with that right now, and it only has 2 decent runs in a row. 

I had a longer post that I decided to erase, so I'll leave it at that for now.

Yeah but how are you gonna have any consistent hits that far out? Not like models are gonna key in on a specific wave from what...12 days out? Lol

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah but how are you gonna have any consistent hits that far out? Not like models are gonna key in on a specific range from what...12 days out? Lol

See, that's what part of my post that I  erased mentioned. But, don't worry about it.

[mitchnick]

Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. 

[Ji]

Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. 

1-2 feet or I have no interest

[winter_warlock]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw 18z AI has a 24hr+ snowstorm on 2/21-2/22. 

If ya believe that will happen I got beachfront property in Kansas I'll sell ya

[Scraff]

GFS looks locked and loaded for the 20-21. 

[mitchnick]

This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.

[Heisy]

This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.

This was last nights euro. I mean I’m shocked this doesn’t lead to a snowstorm, it was close. If that setup is real we’ll see some better runs as we get closer




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[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This was last nights euro. I mean I’m shocked this doesn’t lead to a snowstorm, it was close. If that setup is real we’ll see some better runs as we get closer




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I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals.  There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes. 

[frd]

18 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This made me chuckle. Top map is the operational Euro total snowfall from 2/5 12z and bottom is last night's 0z Euro. Poor ENE. They did have a 4-6" event Saturday, but that's still a nasty haircut.

Not very inspiring. After my 3 inches of snow tomorrow night I am thinking about beach season.   I don't trust models. Seasonal trend and all.  

[Allsnow]

20 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I'm sick of seeing decent looks on ensembles that rarely materialize on the operationals.  There's nothing on operationals after this week. Even the 0z AI has a light snow on 2/22, but that could be gone on the 6z. I'll let you know in 20 minutes. 

Amazing how snowy the ensembles were for this week just for it to turn into a Chicago snow pattern 

[mitchnick]

Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs.

This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol

[Heisy]

Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs.
Thus run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol

Like I said, looking at the ensembles and some of the OP runs setup it just doesn’t make sense for a cutter. Yeah sure the event next Sunday is because the TPV is in C Canada but after that I’d be surprised


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[mitchnick]

By the way, AI has pushed a lot of precip for tomorrow south. But until other modeling agrees, not worth worrying about.

[bncho]

11 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Amazing how snowy the ensembles were for this week just for it to turn into a Chicago snow pattern 

I mean, why snowstorms aren't showing on ensembles doesn't really make a ton of sense. However, the 1/6 storm being a cutter didn't make a lot of sense either - we all know what happened then.

[mitchnick]

It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, AI looking better next week with 3 threats. A light even 2/19, a mod/heavy on 2/21-22, and a final event on 2/25 that's light but heavy precip south of rain & snow which could easily trend better as the 21-22 has over the past few runs.

This run is sure to reel Heisey in. Lol

Whew, i thought you were becoming Ji after your last post. Welcome back Mitch. 

[Heisy]

It's almost shocking to me to see the 0z Eps snowfall imby. Basically drops 5.2" between 2/15 and 2/23, and neither the Euro nor any other operational has didly. Fun or sad times ahead I guess. Lol

Rather it be ensembles vs the OPs. I feel fine about the 20th time frame. OPs will come around if that pattern is correct


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[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

Rather it be ensembles vs the OPs. I feel fine about the 20th time frame. OPs will come around if that pattern is correct


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It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being paultry. I'm one confused weenie!

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

It's odd how the past week or so the ensembles have been dropping more snow than the operationals. I can't recall seeing that for such an extended period. It's usually the operationals dumping large amounts and the ensembles being poultry. I'm one confused weenie!

Weenies sometimes get confused and go to the wrong house. 

[frd]

Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. 

PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral. 

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, frd said:

Another day, another more negative AO forecast. Concensus to -5 SD drop. 

PNA has trended more positive, but according to this calculation site the NAO forecast from the CPC is neutral. 

 

 

 

 

If you recall, Gfs and other modeling was calling for a PV split this week, then backed off.

It's still a good hit, but is now showing a follow-up hit at the end of the run that almost does split it cleanly.

Scroll thru this link to see what I'm talking about  

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=Tz10&runtime=2025021006&fh=6

[Heisy]

Mitch gfs looks more like the euro Ai this run with the tpv setup. Wonder where this leads with the energy entering NW (that’s our 20th event)




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[Heisy]

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[WxUSAF]

Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm

[WxUSAF]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Not sure if it’s gonna do it, but gfs has a very nice H5 look heading into the @psuhoffman storm

Falls apart of course. Vort gets lost in the southwest. But setup was there.