February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

Also [mention=514]Ji[/mention] it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible 

It actually had a winter storm at 12z. The Canadian actually does show snow

[mitchnick]

Gotta love that block on the Euro tonight. As my late father would say, I could spit nails right now!

[mitchnick]

0z AI ends with a potential monster coastal storm. It's just getting going at the endvof the run. It's not cold. More of a March storm.

[Ji]

Also [mention=514]Ji[/mention] it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible 

Psu look st the 6z gfs for weekend lol

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[CAPE]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu look st the 6z gfs for weekend lol

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I told y'all this period was gonna trend better.

[Ji]

I told y'all this period was gonna trend better.

Didn't look at eps but find the 00z euro out of touch with the projected blocking profile. 30 degrees warmer again than gfs

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[CAPE]

This is so close to something good.

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

Didn't look at eps but find the 00z euro out of touch with the projected blocking profile. 30 degrees warmer again than gfs

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Euro is more amplified and has less confluence/weaker HP to the north. CMC and GFS are pretty similar. CMC already has moderate snow for us and GFS is trending that way.

[Solution Man]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

Euro is more amplified and has less confluence/weaker HP to the north. CMC and GFS are pretty similar. CMC already has moderate snow for us and GFS is trending that way.

Golf or Ski…which one?

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, Solution Man said:

Golf or Ski…which one?

We simply cannot know yet.

[NorthArlington101]

GFS not too far from something Friday - hits south VA.

[rjvanals]

The long range is pretty muddled until we get through the Tuesday/Wednesday system 

[DDweatherman]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS not too far from something Friday - hits south VA.

I agree, h5 doesn’t look bad. Was aimed at us then pump faked. Could turn into something if that energy is real. Looking at the Sunday threat now. 

[DDweatherman]

@psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. 

[87storms]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. 

This is the one.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

@psuhoffman definitely potential for next Sunday, favors northern tier folks given the slp track. 

I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere.  It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell.  If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting.

[DDweatherman]

Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I've been slightly curious about next weekend, the GFS has gone back and forth somewhat between some kind of snow/ice (depending on location) and an all-out rainer everywhere.  It looked like the last couple or so cycles have pushed the low a bit farther south lately, but hard to really tell.  If we can get enough confluence to stick around, it could become pretty interesting.

Mid week snow cover could give a little assist with thermals depending on how much falls and what gets washed away Thursday post mix changeover. 

[87storms]

Definitely a different setup between Tuesday and next weekend.  Seems like the majority of the next couple of waves are overrunning while next weekend the trough pushes east and a more formidable surface low develops in the south.  Hopefully it doesn't turn into a cold chasing precip situation, but the ingredients seem there for a more impactful storm somewhere in the east.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=z500a&runtime=2025020912&fh=174

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pwat&runtime=2025020912&fh=162

 

[CAPE]

12z CMC with some snow for PD. Second run in a row.

'

[NorthArlington101]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z CMC with some snow for PD. Second run in a row.

'

Setting the table for something else at Day 10 too

[Blizzard of 93]

The Euro is starting to adjust for next weekend.
Major move at 12z today vs. 0z last night.

12z top

0z bottom 

[frd]

 

 

Regarding the - AO 4 SD block. This is how we are failing in my area I would imagine.  Great post by  @bluewave below, which is from the NY forum. 

Goes to show you even a - 4 SD AO block is no gaurantee of a significnat snowfall.  This is the second time in 4 years this is happening with a - 4 SD AO.  You can think what you want but somrthing is not working like it should in the snowfall department.   

 

The Southeast Ridge would link up only sporadically with weaker to moderate -AO events from the 1950s through the 1990s .The best known stronger event from that era was 1-9-98.

It could be related to the stronger Pacific Jet and the record warm Atlantic SSTs. So it’s the frequency and intensity which has been something new during the 2020s. The coming event this week will be the 2nd -4 link up in just a little over 2 years. 

The south based block in December 2020 allowed BGM to get the 40” jackpot instead of closer to NYC. It lead to the first snowfall shut out for us back in December 2022 with similar past La Niña and -AO levels. Then the March 2023 pattern followed a similar script. Now we are getting mixed precipitation events with this present  south based -AO block. The 11-12th event may be one of the few events without mixing issues in NYC. Interior spots that build up a big enough snowpack could become susceptible to flooding if one or more of the coming storms rides too far north.

2nd -4 -AO in only a little over 2 years this week linking up with the Southeast Ridge

 

-4 -AO December 2022 linking up Southeast Ridge 

2022 12 18 -4.151
2022 12 19 -3.671
2022 12 20 -3.326

Earlier era linkage during 97-98 super El Niño 

1998  1  9 -3.987
1998  1 10 -4.269

 

 

 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

 

The Euro is starting to adjust for next weekend.
Major move at 12z today vs. 0z last night.

12z top

0z bottom 

 

We have a very long ways to go. The block may not be conducive enough for this to be a real threat East of the Fall Line.  

[WxUSAF]

EPS barking for @psuhoffman

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

EPS barking for @psuhoffman

Very nice for the 19th-20th. Not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for this weekend.

[psuhoffman]

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

When PSU honks, he doesn't just say honk honk...he posts the images with a silent honk louder than a noisy one 

And hey, hey what's that date at the top? Lol

[mitchnick]

Impressive Eps snowfall mean yet again.

[mitchnick]

23 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Very nice for the 19th-20th. Not seeing a lot of enthusiasm for this weekend.

We'll call it the "Psu Lucky Guess" storm. Lol

[Stormchaserchuck1]

See how the south-based +NAO aligns with a slight SE ridge?

It's too bad the block isn't a little further south, or that N. Atlantic low would have been in the perfect 50/50 spot, and we have all this moisture/storm systems.. would have been a big one. We needed that Polar block at 80N, not 90N.