winter_warlock Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 17 minutes ago, stormy said: The 18z GFS confirms Tue to be a central Va. special............................ Nothing's confirmed With still 3.5 days to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 55 minutes ago, stormy said: The 18z GFS confirms Tue to be a central Va. special............................ The Euro would like to have a talk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 8 Share Posted February 8 7 minutes ago, bncho said: The Euro would like to have a talk. We'll chat on Thursday. After the Euro was totally blind 72 hrs. ago for my region, it needs to re-earn respect. Perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Weeklies are cold from Feb 16-March 15 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 If we can’t FCKN score with these 30 day temp/precip anomalies I dunno what to say 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Extended GFS has a 6” snow mean Feb 21-28. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Extended GFS has a 6” snow mean Feb 21-28. This is the most hyped end of winter period since March 2001. Don't john bolaris usSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If we can’t FCKN score with these 30 day temp/precip anomalies I dunno what to say Move north and up in elevation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If we can’t FCKN score with these 30 day temp/precip anomalies I dunno what to say Warm/wet and cold/dry is the fear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 8 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Move north and up in elevation? I already did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 51 minutes ago, Ji said: This is the most hyped end of winter period since March 2001. Don't john bolaris us Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Man that storm sucked. I had just bought a new car and was cruising around thinking we were about to get a foot of snow the next day. Then the runs came in that night warmer but I was like “ok we still get like 6” that’s not bad” then the next morning it was just drizzle and the next run took it down to just a few inches. I was working at TGI Fridays in the Herndon worldgate that evening and it never changed over. Didn’t even rain heavy. Just cold light rain. The storm didn’t phase clean and the CCB never got going until New England. Just ugh. The reverse of Jan 2000 the year before. It’s as if we couldn’t even have something nice for one year! The snow gods had to take it back. ETA: that was a crappy year for me. I was home in VA for that winter because I was in a really bad ski accident up in Tremblant around New Years and had to withdrawal from PSU to rehab. Ended what was left of my soccer career lol. Had just broke up with my first love. Then that BS on a stick happened. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Warm/wet and cold/dry is our norm. Fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 18 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Warm/wet and cold/dry is the fear. If the AO gets to -4 then the trough ends up centered over us for 2-3 weeks (as all guidance and typical pattern progression indicates) kinda doubt we fail that way. The more likely fail mode would look like what almost happened in March 2018. We damn near wasted that beautiful block. Storm on Feb 30-March 1 over amped and didn’t have enough antecedent cold and we got a cold rain but it wasn’t warm. Mountains and New England got obliterated. I got like 1-2” up here at the end. Then miller B on the 7th just missed is to the northeast. We got 1-2” again and 1-2 feet NJ north! Then two waves in a row got suppressed south of us and gave minor snows to NC. I remember people arguing that couldn’t happen because it was March and I pointed out some of their biggest snows ever down there were actually March and with that kind of block ya it can. Then we finally got that big March 20 but from a week out that looked like a miller b miss also. Then the STJ wave became more dominant and finally. After the suppressed storm on the 15th which had teased us a week out with 12” model runs missed I made some super meltdown burn the world post in the panic room. Then the very next run the miller b for Boston changed to a big snow for us lol. But in a Nina that’s how we could fail. A mix of northern steam miller bs to our north and suppressed STJs to our south because in a Nina they are too weak to press into the block and gain latitude. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man that storm sucked. I had just bought a new car and was cruising around thinking we were about to get a foot of snow the next day. Then the runs came in that night warmer but I was like “ok we still get like 6” that’s not bad” then the next morning it was just drizzle and the next run took it down to just a few inches. I was working at TGI Fridays in the Herndon worldgate that evening and it never changed over. Didn’t even rain heavy. Just cold light rain. The storm didn’t phase clean and the CCB never got going until New England. Just ugh. The reverse of Jan 2000 the year before. It’s as if we couldn’t even have something nice for one year! The snow gods had to take it back. ETA: that was a crappy year for me. I was home in VA for that winter because I was in a really bad ski accident up in Tremblant around New Years and had to withdrawal from PSU to rehab. Ended what was left of my soccer career lol. Had just broke up with my first love. Then that BS on a stick happened. I still remember waking up real early Sunday morning to check out the 6z Eta and my heart sank a bit thinking the rug was getting pulled out. Then 12z rolled out and it was over. Sooo fresh in my mind. Darn shame memories from 25 years ago are easier than 25 minutes. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: I still remember waking up real early Sunday morning to check out the 6z Eta and my heart sank a bit thinking the rug was getting pulled out. Then 12z rolled out and it was over. Sooo fresh in my mind. Darn shame memories from 25 years ago are easier than 25 minutes. Was braced for 1-2' up until 12 hrs prior here. Yep, eta ruined the party. Ended with half an inch of sleet/slop. Worst debacle ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man that storm sucked. I had just bought a new car and was cruising around thinking we were about to get a foot of snow the next day. Then the runs came in that night warmer but I was like “ok we still get like 6” that’s not bad” then the next morning it was just drizzle and the next run took it down to just a few inches. I was working at TGI Fridays in the Herndon worldgate that evening and it never changed over. Didn’t even rain heavy. Just cold light rain. The storm didn’t phase clean and the CCB never got going until New England. Just ugh. The reverse of Jan 2000 the year before. It’s as if we couldn’t even have something nice for one year! The snow gods had to take it back. ETA: that was a crappy year for me. I was home in VA for that winter because I was in a really bad ski accident up in Tremblant around New Years and had to withdrawal from PSU to rehab. Ended what was left of my soccer career lol. Had just broke up with my first love. Then that BS on a stick happened. How did yo handle the similar flop in 2013? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 4 minutes ago, mitchnick said: I still remember waking up real early Sunday morning to check out the 6z Eta and my heart sank a bit thinking the rug was getting pulled out. Then 12z rolled out and it was over. Sooo fresh in my mind. Darn shame memories from 25 years ago are easier than 25 minutes. I remember for days it was south but the pattern suggested it should come north. Then it did 48 hours out but for some reason we assumed the trend was over which was foolish. It kept trending north and over the course of 36 hours went from a VA snowstorm to a northern New England one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: How did yo handle the similar flop in 2013? Are you talking about the early March 2013 storm? I got 6” here and it wasn’t supposed to be much more than that here actually, I was on the northern fringe. I think I was expecting like 8 so getting 6 wasn’t some big bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Also in March 2013 I was about to take a trip to Colorado with my GF and future ex wife and so I had other things to distract me. Ugh more sad memories. Eagles better win tomorrow. Im ready. 5 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: If the AO gets to -4 then the trough ends up centered over us for 2-3 weeks (as all guidance and typical pattern progression indicates) kinda doubt we fail that way. The more likely fail mode would look like what almost happened in March 2018. We damn near wasted that beautiful block. Storm on Feb 30-March 1 over amped and didn’t have enough antecedent cold and we got a cold rain but it wasn’t warm. Mountains and New England got obliterated. I got like 1-2” up here at the end. Then miller B on the 7th just missed is to the northeast. We got 1-2” again and 1-2 feet NJ north! Then two waves in a row got suppressed south of us and gave minor snows to NC. I remember people arguing that couldn’t happen because it was March and I pointed out some of their biggest snows ever down there were actually March and with that kind of block ya it can. Then we finally got that big March 20 but from a week out that looked like a miller b miss also. Then the STJ wave became more dominant and finally. After the suppressed storm on the 15th which had teased us a week out with 12” model runs missed I made some super meltdown burn the world post in the panic room. Then the very next run the miller b for Boston changed to a big snow for us lol. But in a Nina that’s how we could fail. A mix of northern steam miller bs to our north and suppressed STJs to our south because in a Nina they are too weak to press into the block and gain latitude. That March solidified my disdain for Nina's and GL lows. One particular miss I distinctly remember you saying "that low just has to get the **** out of the way". And then the windstorm we got while NE got clobbered again (can't remember whether that was the same storm though). I mean every big miss that year was just bull. So now this has me wondering whether we can actually take advantage of great blocking in a Nina. I mean it worked in 1996 and...2000? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Why is the gfs showing rain next weekend with ao and ao at severe negative and pna epo at neutral Canadian looks better 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 6 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is the gfs showing rain next weekend with ao and ao at severe negative and pna epo at neutral Canadian looks better Gfs loves the SER too. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=500h_anom&rh=2025020900&fh=294&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Why is the gfs showing rain next weekend with ao and ao at severe negative and pna epo at neutral Canadian looks better The TPV splits and the lobe to the east exits and the main one dropping is still centered west of us creating a weakness for a storm to cut into. This is typical as a block develops or often takes one wave amplification to get the boundary SE of us. It’s after that we should be set up good. My biggest fear for the waves Feb 20+ are miller b type fails not pure cutters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Also @Ji it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Also [mention=514]Ji[/mention] it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible It actually had a winter storm at 12z. The Canadian actually does show snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Gotta love that block on the Euro tonight. As my late father would say, I could spit nails right now! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 0z AI ends with a potential monster coastal storm. It's just getting going at the endvof the run. It's not cold. More of a March storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 Also [mention=514]Ji[/mention] it’s 160 out and look what it did in one run. If it adjusted 2 more times like this it’s a snowstorm. Not saying it will but not impossible Psu look st the 6z gfs for weekend lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Psu look st the 6z gfs for weekend lol Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk I told y'all this period was gonna trend better. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9 Share Posted February 9 I told y'all this period was gonna trend better.Didn't look at eps but find the 00z euro out of touch with the projected blocking profile. 30 degrees warmer again than gfsSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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