February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1 oh also remember I studied the loading pattern not the day of. Yes a lot of our big snows come with a trough in GOA. But that’s also why we warm up right after. The loading pattern to that big storm was what happened a week before that to establish cold over us then as the pattern breaks down and sends some wave at us with cold in place…that’s how we get the big ones often. 

Maybe it's common for a +EPO to progress into a GOA Low because they are almost the same thing? Big difference though in the downstream pattern, every degree of latitude difference there is huge! 

Edit: I don't know.. if you are cold a week before that's not very +epo. I just know that in the mid-latitudes over the Pacific and Atlantic, you have your strongest global anomalies for our snowstorm composite. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

That's actually a pretty good -WPO surprisingly and also surprisingly because it correlates with Canada.. neutral 500mb over and NE of Alaska.  I'd like to see the +EPO snowstorm composite sometime if you ever see it, because a true +EPO, with the stronger anomaly in the Northern Hemisphere over Alaska... there is pretty much almost no chance of snow in that pattern. 

I didn’t run that composite originally. I focused on the more major sets of snowstorms. I’ll see if I can find my data to run it but I think I lost it when my last laptop died. But keep in mind that there are degrees to this. It’s a lot easier to overcome a minorly hostile epo and pna. There aren’t many examples of a big snow when the pna is -3 like it often has been lately. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Maybe -EPO's are 2-4" inch events, because it's a Canadian cold pattern.. the cold air comes south from Canada, and the jet stream is essentially NW to SE, favoring clippers or storms moving W -> E, vs from the south. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe -EPO's are 2-4" inch events, because it's a Canadian cold pattern.. the cold air comes south from Canada, and the jet stream is essentially NW to SE, favoring clippers or storms moving W -> E, vs from the south. 

I agree with this. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe it's common for a +EPO to progress into a GOA Low because they are almost the same thing? Big difference though in the downstream pattern, every degree of latitude difference there is huge! 

Edit: I don't know.. if you are cold a week before that's not very +epo. I just know that in the mid-latitudes over the Pacific and Atlantic, you have your strongest global anomalies for our snowstorm composite. 

We used to get more snowstorms in “not very cold” North American patterns. Look at the Feb 1997 5-8” snow we got across the area as a perfect example. It was warm everywhere. But we had a bit of a ridge near Hudson Bay that helped get a decently energetic wave to take a perfect track and we got a 32-33 degree wet snowstorm. Would that even work today in this temperate base state?  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Maybe -EPO's are 2-4" inch events, because it's a Canadian cold pattern.. the cold air comes south from Canada, and the jet stream is essentially NW to SE, favoring clippers or storms moving W -> E, vs from the south. 

 

Just now, Terpeast said:

I agree with this. 

Yes concur 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I didn’t run that composite originally. I focused on the more major sets of snowstorms. I’ll see if I can find my data to run it but I think I lost it when my last laptop died. But keep in mind that there are degrees to this. It’s a lot easier to overcome a minorly hostile epo and pna. There aren’t many examples of a big snow when the pna is -3 like it often has been lately. 

Pacific definitely has more pattern correlation in N. America, I think. Another thing is the orientation of the PNA. When it's a 40N, probably more hostile than 45-50N. 45N, it runs with waves that are more N/S, and can be broken by the time it's here. 40N ridges are pretty uniform.. it would probably be hard for us to get snow with a strong N. Pacific 40N ridge. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I ain’t cancelled shit. Im just having dialogue I find educational and interesting with Chuck about effective snowstorm loading patterns overlayed with hypothesizing about how climate factors “could” impact blocking. But this discussion does not mean I’ve changed my mind about the pattern. 
 

BTw keep something in mind. For the last 10 days I was kinda debbing next week despite models spitting out crazy stupid snow. The reason was the pattern just didn’t look like a snowy one. I said the guidance at range when it’s not aligned with historical analogs for a pattern usually adjust to the climo for that pattern once inside day 5. And what happened!  
 

Well that works both ways!  Remember 10 days before Jan 6 when it was a cutter and Ji and I said that made no sense and should adjust. It ended up adjusting so much it fringed me. I’m not worried about what the surface Synoptics are on model runs at 300 hours. I’m way more worried about what the longwave pattern is. The surface will adjust to it 90% of the time. 

I know you weren't canceling anything...I was being humorous and facetious because the moods in here give one whiplash (people posting 360+ hour ops maps and freaking out, OMG!!!!  And that right after partying at a crazy snowstorm the GFS showed at 06Z.).  You've been spot on steady as a rock about "your" period of about Feb. 20 through Mar. 15.  And I agree with your thoughts on this upcoming next week.  While I was hopeful (still am!) and it would be cool to score before the time that will be more truly favorable, it is kind of an iffy prospect.  You did state that to be sure (an iffy prospect next week), while at the same time saying that you weren't discounting any snow threats prior to the 20th.  I thought that was a fair take.

(And, BTW, I appreciate the educational and philosophical discussions as well).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We used to get more snowstorms in “not very cold” North American patterns. Look at the Feb 1997 5-8” snow we got across the area as a perfect example. It was warm everywhere. But we had a bit of a ridge near Hudson Bay that helped get a decently energetic wave to take a perfect track and we got a 32-33 degree wet snowstorm. Would that even work today in this temperate base state?  

Something about the temperate base state isn't anomalous though.. there's something to it, driven by a factor I believe that is something specific vs global warming. Just look at a week ago, it was heavy dry/fluffy snow in Pensacola with a temp of 24F.  There is something somewhere that is like a warm layer underneath.. that's what I was trying to connect to the 2nd half of Winter -PNA's, but that's not what it is.. I don't think it's AMO either, but we have seen glimpses of Winter. Last year in the Chiefs home playoff game, the windchill was -30F. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

By the way, this looks like snow to me

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Pacific definitely has more pattern correlation in N. America, I think. Another thing is the orientation of the PNA. When it's a 40N, probably more hostile than 45-50N. 45N, it runs with waves that are more N/S, and can be broken by the time it's here. 40N ridges are pretty uniform.. it would probably be hard for us to get snow with a strong N. Pacific 40N ridge. 

Yes this 100%. It’s totally different having a mid latitude trough in the west that’s disconnected from the high latitudes than a full latitude trough that digs into the west. The former often associated with our best split flow regimes and the latter is the crap we’ve dealt with lately!  

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

By the way, this looks like snow to me

Yes it does!!

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something about the temperate base state isn't anomalous though.. there's something to it, driven by a factor I believe that is something specific vs global warming. Just look at a week ago, it was heavy dry/fluffy snow in Pensacola with a temp of 24F.  There is something somewhere that is like a warm layer underneath.. that's what I was trying to connect to the 2nd half of Winter -PNA's, but that's not what it is.. 

ya now we’re getting into stuff above my pay grade lol 

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ya now we’re getting into stuff above my pay grade lol 

I would have never believed this

[IronTy]

3 minutes ago, stormy said:

I would have never believed this

Time to bring in the confirmed experts

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

11 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Something about the temperate base state isn't anomalous though.. there's something to it, driven by a factor I believe that is something specific vs global warming. Just look at a week ago, it was heavy dry/fluffy snow in Pensacola with a temp of 24F.  There is something somewhere that is like a warm layer underneath.. that's what I was trying to connect to the 2nd half of Winter -PNA's, but that's not what it is.. I don't think it's AMO either, but we have seen glimpses of Winter. Last year in the Chiefs home playoff game, the windchill was -30F. 

I've only followed this line of discussion in a cursory manner, so apologies if I'm stating things that were said before or are not exactly on topic here.  But I've always found it interesting how places in the deep south can get these remarkable "cold smoke" snowstorms almost with any major Arctic outbreak, when one might normally think that snows for them would have to be "wetter/slushier" just because they are in a warmer region.  I know that is an extreme of course, and when such things occur they're just on the right side of that boundary with a nice wave going across.  The weather doesn't care that it's New Orleans or Pensacola or Atlanta...or Minneapolis.  I was talking with someone the other day that blasts of cold air are not overly uncommon in the south (one can argue whether certain nameless trends make that less common now than previously!), but this one just happened to occur with a strong wave propagating to the south, so they got record-setting snows.  If they got no snow and essentially just a "blue norther" (I believe that's what they call it in Texas!), we'd read about the unusual cold but it wouldn't be the big news story without the snow.  I think this all is a part of the changing climate with more extremes; those extremes don't always have to be heat-related.

 

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ya now we’re getting into stuff above my pay grade lol 

LOL, gonna need a bigger paycheck then!  But seriously, yeah, there's some nuance in here that is not easy to define I'm sure, beyond climate change (can I use that phrase?  LOL!).

[Stormchaserchuck1]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

ya now we’re getting into stuff above my pay grade lol 

Maybe it really is about the PNA, and our chances of seeing +PNA again. The thing is.. the mid-latitude trough (+pna) has also not happened in the Atlantic, even with -NAO a lot of the time... so is there a bigger global pattern for warm mid latitudes, or can we connect to PNA cycle? This Winter is hopeful because despite a Fall PDO of -3.88, and Weak La Nina (even in the subsurface, which I've connected with the pattern), +PNA has prevailed. -PNA has actually happened none so far. I think since Nov 30, the lowest the CPC PNA index got to on the daily was -0.1, and it's back >+1.0 in the medium/long range again. But here's our cold, and real legit cold... with +PNA.  I think that pattern could work. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

I've only followed this line of discussion in a cursory manner, so apologies if I'm stating things that were said before or are not exactly on topic here.  But I've always found it interesting how places in the deep south can get these remarkable "cold smoke" snowstorms almost with any major Arctic outbreak, when one might normally think that snows for them would have to be "wetter/slushier" just because they are in a warmer region.  I know that is an extreme of course, and when such things occur they're just on the right side of that boundary with a nice wave going across.  The weather doesn't care that it's New Orleans or Pensacola or Atlanta...or Minneapolis.  I was talking with someone the other day that blasts of cold air are not overly uncommon in the south (one can argue whether certain nameless trends make that less common now than previously!), but this one just happened to occur with a strong wave propagating to the south, so they got record-setting snows.  If they got no snow and essentially just a "blue norther" (I believe that's what they call it in Texas!), we'd read about the unusual cold but it wouldn't be the big news story without the snow.  I think this all is a part of the changing climate with more extremes; those extremes don't always have to be heat-related. beyond climate change (can I use that phrase?  LOL!).

I actually drove down from MD to FL this Summer, and was admiring how sensitive the climate and animals were, saying "it can snow here!". I couldn't believe places in GA never would see snow.. a stupid 12 hour drive south.  Seems like every mile it's a different type of vegetation.  I think it has actually snowed in the Florida keys before... 

[psuhoffman]

Euro AI would be a kick in the nuts lol. We get 2 strong waves during our best window. One Feb 21 just slightly over amplified and snow is PA line north.  Then next one crushes NC lol  

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I actually drove down from MD to FL this Summer, and was admiring how sensitive the climate and animals were, saying "it can snow here!". I couldn't believe places in GA never would see snow.. a stupid 12 hour drive south.  I think it has actually snowed in the Florida keys before... 

I was reminded of the snow (first time in recorded history I believe?) in Miami during that remarkably cold January 1977.  I had lived in Atlanta for several years (mid '90s into the early 2000s), which is of course right in the Piedmont region.  I never saw big snows there but did experience some real cold upon occasion as well as some light snows and a couple of serious ice events.  I was amazed how the more deciduous trees were relatively unscathed, but those pine trees they have down there and the southern magnolias got totally shredded (put 1/4" of ice or so onto those magnolia leaves and they just get destroyed).

[frd]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro AI would be a kick in the nuts lol. We get 2 strong waves during our best window. One Feb 21 just slightly over amplified and snow is PA line north.  Then next one crushes NC lol  

Your description seems that both threats are not Miller A. And both threats are not widespread. 

Besides warning level snows here, what is missing are widespread snowfalls that strike points from DC North to Boston. Or, at the least, say  lower VA. to say

Trenton, NJ.  

 

 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro AI would be a kick in the nuts lol. We get 2 strong waves during our best window. One Feb 21 just slightly over amplified and snow is PA line north.  Then next one crushes NC lol  

I am going to be nutless after this winter. 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro AI would be a kick in the nuts lol. We get 2 strong waves during our best window. One Feb 21 just slightly over amplified and snow is PA line north.  Then next one crushes NC lol  

If something like that happens just know that I'm gonna comeback with my post Feb. 20th theme, lol Or more specifically Feb 21st-28th...

[stormtracker]

Shit man...if the GFS was just a little colder for that Thursday system, we'd get destroyed

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shit man...if the GFS was just a little colder for that Thursday system, we'd get destroyed

Really? But hasn't that always been a cutter or ice to rain at best? Now I'd love for the storm after to do something

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shit man...if the GFS was just a little colder for that Thursday system, we'd get destroyed

We got time

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Shit man...if the GFS was just a little colder for that Thursday system, we'd get destroyed

Wasn't that one always more or less a rainer?  But that one next weekend has occasionally indicated some kind of snow/ice type deal around here, it's vacillated between that and rain.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

We got time

Buddy you are BENCHED after going 0-20 with three model interceptions!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Buddy you are BENCHED after going 0-20 with three model interceptions!

Sign him up for the Browns (Clowns)!!!  Fits right in!  And I say that as a native Clevelander, I'll freely diss how awful they are.  Now the Cavs (and Guardians)...different story!

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Buddy you are BENCHED after going 0-20 with three model interceptions!

don't blame me.. it was the refs!! Lmaooo