February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I know lol. I am most definitely a stickler for homophone misuse(abuse). I rarely do it. I always re-read what I wrote right after posting just to double check for misspellings etc.

Same here, I'm always re-reading and checking and still miss stuff!  I don't use autocorrect or auto-fill on my phone or anywhere else because it's annoying and sometimes is just plain wrong (or gets in the way), LOL!

Now, back to tracking our long-awaited @psuhoffman storm! 

[Wonderdog]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Actually when I made the call for mid Feb to Mid March it was based on analogs and timing out seasonal cyclical progressions of the AO and MJO. At the time no guidance showed much, but it emboldened by feelings when they came around to what I was thinking.
 

They all aligned. Analogs to cold enso years when we get a significant -AO in early January have another drop sometime mid Feb into March. I didn’t by the collapse of the MJO because the guidance did that last cycle. I timed it into 8/1/2 for Feb 15 on. And the AO has been in a very consistent cycle of huge drops and slow rise then repeat and it was timed up to so the same mid Feb.  Basically everything is look at to try to decipher long range clues was pointing the same direction and that rarely happens.  
 

The only thing to give pause was it was going against the recent late seasonal patterns as you pointed out. But I just have the sense we’ve broken oit of the dominant pacific cycle of the last 6 years. Not saying the pacific is great now but I think we are in the middle of a PDO phase change and we are not seeing the same degree of hostile influence we did recently. So I went with my gut that this would be different and another cycle of -AO and hopefully snowier was coming. I also like the idea of cycling the general Jan pattern again but with the shorter wavelengths of late winter. Should be a stormier period. 

PSU, this long range forecast is all well and good but how are you with short range forecasts? I know you're an Eagles fan as am I. Will there be confetti and riots on Broad street Sunday night?

[Steve25]

The thing I don’t understand are the people saying the pattern change keeps getting pushed back. PSU, along with some of the other intelligent posters in here have been saying for a while now that the real opportunity for something significant will be around the 18th or later, if I’m not mistaken. They seem to not have budged off of that. They even said that anything before that has some potential, but that it’s messy and no real opportunity for a big one. 
 

I understand that people would prefer to cash in on ANY type of potential, and that the earlier in February climo the better, but the sentiment that the advertised exciting period keeps getting shoved back seems wildly misunderstood and exaggerated. 

[Maestrobjwa]

What the frickle is the GFS doing for next weekend  Ice I guess?

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What the frickle is the GFS doing for next weekend  Ice I guess?

No. 50" of snow in DC.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, dailylurker said:

No. 50" of snow in DC.

Not even taking that bait, lol

[Solution Man]

8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Not even taking that bait, lol

Wise way “grasshopper”

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What the frickle is the GFS doing for next weekend  Ice I guess?

What the frack is a frickle?  But seriously what is the GFS showing next weekend, I haven't check 12Z yet? At one point it was showing some kind of snow/ice scenario, then had more of a cutter... Seemed to be back and forth. 

[dailylurker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Wise way “grasshopper”

It's the psu storm. I'm already invested and posted it on Facebook lol

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, dailylurker said:

It's the psu storm. I'm already invested and posted it on Facebook lol

That 06Z storm was insane. But something like that has shown up in that general time frame a few times now. 

[Maestrobjwa]

11 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said:

What the frack is a frickle?  But seriously what is the GFS showing next weekend, I haven't check 12Z yet? At one point it was showing some kind of snow/ice scenario, then had more of a cutter... Seemed to be back and forth. 

Hahahaha Well, since I try not swear in general, I wanted to frack for a frickle so that the frickle could replace the f-bomb You'd better not be advocating for banning frickling sir--because I will defend it vociferously!

[psuhoffman]

Ok I cracked the code. I’m gonna need you all to tell anyone you share weather advice that the last week of February is going to be beautiful. 70 degrees. Tell them you would bet your life that there will be no big snowstorms after Feb 20. They should schedule an outside BBQ in shorts that week!  

[stormy]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I cracked the code. I’m gonna need you all to tell anyone you share weather advice that the last week of February is going to be beautiful. 70 degrees. Tell them you would bet your life that there will be no big snowstorms after Feb 20. They should schedule an outside BBQ in shorts that week!  

I'm working on the afternoon update for my newsletter right now.   Thanks for the heads-up!!

[Benjamn3]

14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok I cracked the code. I’m gonna need you all to tell anyone you share weather advice that the last week of February is going to be beautiful. 70 degrees. Tell them you would bet your life that there will be no big snowstorms after Feb 20. They should schedule an outside BBQ in shorts that week!  

I’ll tell my wife. One of her favorite things on the planet is telling me I’m wrong and the other is warm weather. I’ll make this sacrifice. 

[SnowenOutThere]

Yo @psuhoffman I know it is the long range GFS, but is this a legitimate possibility of the upcoming pattern. Just asking because we have seen something like this the past couple years...

[frd]

2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yo @psuhoffman I know it is the long range GFS, but is this a legitimate possibility of the upcoming pattern. Just asking because we have seen something like this the past couple years...

I have seen that too in previous years.  

A negative NAO block linking with the SER/WAR . Hope that is wrong. Ugly .

Crazy GFS from just 6 hours ago.  

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Wonderdog said:

PSU, this long range forecast is all well and good but how are you with short range forecasts? I know you're an Eagles fan as am I. Will there be confetti and riots on Broad street Sunday night?

No idea. Eagles have the better roster by far but they have the best QB/Coach. My gut says either the eagles dominate and win by 2+ scores (or a game were KC scores late to make it look close but it really isn’t) or KC wins a close game again.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

5 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yo @psuhoffman I know it is the long range GFS, but is this a legitimate possibility of the upcoming pattern. Just asking because we have seen something like this the past couple years...

What a trainwreck, but thankfully it is the op 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Yo @psuhoffman I know it is the long range GFS, but is this a legitimate possibility of the upcoming pattern. Just asking because we have seen something like this the past couple years...

I doubt it. But anything’s “possible” 

[psuhoffman]

Even the GFS has the mjo strongly into 8 by then. I doubt a western trough eastern ridge with that forcing. I’m not wasting time digging into why one op run did that at range. Unless ensembles move they way I’m not worried. 

[stormtracker]

Buncha rainstorms on the Euro too.   Imagine if that holds, lol

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Buncha rainstorms on the Euro too.   Imagine if that holds, lol

Imagine or expectation?  Lol

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Imagine or expectation?  Lol

Well, we are who we are.  So yeah...

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Buncha rainstorms on the Euro too.   Imagine if that holds, lol

I'd imagine the whisperer will be screaming 

[frd]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Buncha rainstorms on the Euro too.   Imagine if that holds, lol

If it does hold then its time for that conversation that @psuhoffman mentioned.  

On to the EPS

[mitchnick]

Overcoming the February Niña climo in medium range forecasts is a bigger biatch than the models/ensembles seem to think, or so it seems.

[mitchnick]

Gefs do like the 20/21st time period.

[WxUSAF]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Overcoming the February Niña climo in medium range forecasts is a bigger biatch than the models/ensembles seem to think, or so it seems.

Yup. Was thinking this today.

[stormy]

The ECM says atmospheric memory will rule the roost for Tue/Wed

In the 60's looking at hand drawn weather map on the evening news, one friend would sometimes say. "If you see that L in Arkansas, another snowstorm is on the way.

[brooklynwx99]

personally, I find it very hard to believe that there isn't a large storm when a four sigma west-based -NAO breaks down