February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

We should be in phase 7 sometime in February, but it's interesting that phase 7 in March per this site looks a lot like what ensembles are advertising in mid February. 

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We should be in phase 7 sometime in February, but it's interesting that phase 7 in March per this site looks a lot like what ensembles are advertising in mid February. 

I’ve found that phase 7 can be a precursor to big EC storms. You can see troughing off the west coast under the AK ridge, rolled forward it can set off a s/w progressing eastward and then move along the boundary in the east. That’s one way how we get the big ones.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

 

Honestly, from weeks ago saying we were probably going to have another cycle of -AO/NAO and a colder period late Feb and March was one of the easier long range calls that could be made imo, for all the reasons I laid out previously.  And I am not averse to saying "I have no idea what is going to happen" when I don't which is often wrt long range stuff.  Actually kinda surprised it took so long for some to come to this conclusion (I guess they needed to see it on the guidance first)  but glad we seem to be getting a consensus forming now.  

[Paleocene]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I’ve found that phase 7 can be a precursor to big EC storms. You can see troughing off the west coast under the AK ridge, rolled forward it can set off a s/w progressing eastward and then move along the boundary in the east. That’s one way how we get the big ones.

It would be a killer way to end this season if we got a forum-wide big dog in the feb 15-28th period.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

It would be a killer way to end this season if we got a forum-wide big dog in the feb 15-28th period.

Why end it in February?  March can be pretty good in Niñas. 

[Its a Breeze]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Honestly, from weeks ago saying we were probably going to have another cycle of -AO/NAO and a colder period late Feb and March was one of the easier long range calls that could be made imo, for all the reasons I laid out previously.  And I am not averse to saying "I have no idea what is going to happen" when I don't which is often wrt long range stuff.  Actually kinda surprised it took so long for some to come to this conclusion (I guess they needed to see it on the guidance first)  but glad we seem to be getting a consensus forming now.  

One of the the longest "I told you so"s ever

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

It would be a killer way to end this season if we got a forum-wide big dog in the feb 15-28th period.

We certainly could get a big snow the last week of Feb, but if I had to bet on a specific week for a warning level snowfall I would take the first week of March...might even take the second week of March after that, then the last week of Feb as my 3rd option.  These things often take time to set up and establish and beat down the SER.  Maybe we charge right in and get a hit immediately but that's not how most go.  2018 it took 3 weeks of blocking before we finally got a big snowstorm and it came just before the clock hit midnight on our chances.  The pattern evolution kinda reminds me a little of that year right now.  

Before anyone panics about "but it didn't snow until March 20" remember we had several really good threats starting with a storm around March 1 that year but for various reasons they all didn't come together.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why end it in February?  March can be pretty good in Niñas. 

There seems to be some kind of stigma about March snowfall...I've tried to fight it but its hopeless.  I do think people need to know their local climo, there are places in the southern 1/3 of this forum where the climo really does degrade significantly after about Feb 20.  If I lived down in the lower Delmarva or the northern neck I probably would check out by March 1.  But 95 where most in here live has until about March 15 before the spring wall hits.  Where we are up here its more like the first week of April.  

[adelphi_sky]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Why end it in February?  March can be pretty good in Niñas. 

I agree. My son was born on March 3rd 2014 during a snow event. Can't recall how much we got, but the neighbors had to shovel the sidewalks for us while my wife was in labor. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

We certainly could get a big snow the last week of Feb, but if I had to bet on a specific week for a warning level snowfall I would take the first week of March...might even take the second week of March after that, then the last week of Feb as my 3rd option.  These things often take time to set up and establish and beat down the SER.  Maybe we charge right in and get a hit immediately but that's not how most go.  2018 it took 3 weeks of blocking before we finally got a big snowstorm and it came just before the clock hit midnight on our chances.  The pattern evolution kinda reminds me a little of that year right now.  

Before anyone panics about "but it didn't snow until March 20" remember we had several really good threats starting with a storm around March 1 that year but for various reasons they all didn't come together.  

I'm in Anaheim March 3rd through the 7th so if we can avoid those dates it would be much appreciated....k...thanks

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Its a Breeze said:

One of the the longest "I told you so"s ever

I am NOT the only one who called for a likely colder period towards the end of this season.  Several others noted that in their seasonal forecast or have been calling for it for weeks.  Just pointing out that some long range calls are very low confidence.  This one, IMO, has higher confidence.  

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

I'm in Anaheim March 3rd through the 7th so if we can avoid those dates it would be much appreciated....k...thanks

I'm gonna go ahead and pencil in our March 93 repeat for March 3th and our March 58 nightcap for the 7th.  

[Paleocene]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Why end it in February?  March can be pretty good in Niñas. 

A fair point! I just get nervous starting in early March about warmth. Maybe snowquester memories there? I acknowledge that probability of snow isn't really that much different between Feb 20-Feb 28 and March 1 - March 10.  But after that down here... meh. I'm ready for spring. Personal preference.

[psuhoffman]

Everything looks on track. You can see the SER getting beaten down at the end of the GEFS.  EPS ends a day sooner but its hinting at the same progression.  That takes us to mid Feb.  A week later the boundary is likely south of us.  I might add in a couple day leeway for the fact the guidance often is too fast in this progression but its now starting to line up with the idea that around Feb 20 is the start of the next colder period. 

 

This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that.  We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at.  Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm.  I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible.  Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing.  

[Ji]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Everything looks on track. You can see the SER getting beaten down at the end of the GEFS.  EPS ends a day sooner but its hinting at the same progression.  That takes us to mid Feb.  A week later the boundary is likely south of us.  I might add in a couple day leeway for the fact the guidance often is too fast in this progression but its now starting to line up with the idea that around Feb 20 is the start of the next colder period. 

 

This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that.  We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at.  Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm.  I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible.  Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing.  

the EPS snow chart is the best i have seen since the January 5-6 storm. 2nd best chart ive seen this winter. ARe we pooping the Feb 10-13 window?

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 hours ago, CAPE said:

6Z GFS is all about it. Certainly are indications on the ensemble runs lately, with the Scandi ridge building into the NAO domain.

Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.

[Ji]

Just now, Ji said:

the EPS snow chart is the best i have seen since the January 5-6 storm. 2nd best chart ive seen this winter. ARe we pooping the Feb 10-13 window?

 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

A fair point! I just get nervous starting in early March about warmth. Maybe snowquester memories there? I acknowledge that probability of snow isn't really that much different between Feb 20-Feb 28 and March 1 - March 10.  But after that down here... meh. I'm ready for spring. Personal preference.

I think its perception bias.  The numbers show the chances of a snowstorm are almost the same each week until you get past the second week of March when they fall off a cliff suddenly.  Yes we have a LOT of fails in March because of boundary temps.  Guess what, we just had one of those 2 weeks ago!  We had one on the day of the super bowl in Feb 2021!  I got 7" and 95 white rain because boundary temps sucked on a perfect track storm!  Had those two storms happened in March people would have attributed the fail to it being March when in reality that happens even in the middle of winter here because we suck at snow.  

[CAPE]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.

It's D15 on an op run. Chill with the over analysis.

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.

Just want to note, the SER has been kicked down time and time again this season, so we do have that going for us. With all the other tellies signaling a decent -ao/-nao mid Feb forward, I think the scenario I mentioned is slim. Just presenting a different perspective of the scenario possibilities here. 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

the EPS snow chart is the best i have seen since the January 5-6 storm. 2nd best chart ive seen this winter. ARe we pooping the Feb 10-13 window?

Maybe you didn't read the whole post...

"This does not mean I am tossing any chance at something before that.  We snowed in the middle of the "warmer" period that lead into the late season colder one in several of the analogs I looked at.  Nothing major but a nice little boundary wave that caught us when the cold pressed behind some rainstorm.  I think something in that window around the 9th-13th is possible.  Just will take some luck with wave spacing and timing. "

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.

You cut and pasted that response from last year admit it Ralph

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Be careful here, that NAO if not timed just right is going to link up with the Nina-bulging SER into a full lat ridge. I'm not suggesting this happens but it isnt uncommon as we enter the backend of winter in Nina patterns. We need the NAO to remain separate, even flex and close off. If those 2 features should link up, it's probably game over.

The pattern in the western and central Pacific is less supportive of that happening imo.  Maybe temporarily at the very start, but we are not in the deep hostile PDO regime that I think was a big part of that problem recently.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The pattern in the western and central Pacific is less supportive of that happening imo.  Maybe temporarily at the very start, but we are not in the deep hostile PDO regime that I think was a big part of that problem recently.  

Totally agree. We would need a series of events to collapse for that scenario to actually happen. The pac jet retraction, the scandi ridging, the mjo progression...even the swe all are in favor of a return to some form of 'deep winter' as we advance thru Feb.

[WxUSAF]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

 

That’s impressive given it’s all D10+

[dallen7908]

Day 8 - 15 has potential.  Note first plot shows percent of ensembles with >1" of snow/sleet/ice, while latter shows pct > 6" ... 

 

[AlexD1990]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

There seems to be some kind of stigma about March snowfall...I've tried to fight it but its hopeless.  I do think people need to know their local climo, there are places in the southern 1/3 of this forum where the climo really does degrade significantly after about Feb 20.  If I lived down in the lower Delmarva or the northern neck I probably would check out by March 1.  But 95 where most in here live has until about March 15 before the spring wall hits.  Where we are up here its more like the first week of April.  

Depends on your definition of "Lower Delmarva", but we've had decent March snows before. It was either St. Patrick's 13 or 14 when we had 8-10".

[NorthArlington101]

The Feb. 5 threat is sneaking into the medium range now… GFS is at least wintry with sleet/ice for many of us. 

[NorthArlington101]

12 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

The Feb. 5 threat is sneaking into the medium range now… GFS is at least wintry with sleet/ice for many of us. 

This is also all wintry precip of some kind for most of us on the AI Euro for the 5th/6th - looks like mostly sleet or ice, but some snow at the start if the shoddy temp maps we’ve got are right. Eventually flips to rain. 
 

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is also all wintry precip of some kind for most of us on the AI Euro for the 5th/6th - looks like mostly sleet or ice, but some snow at the start if the shoddy temp maps we’ve got are right. Eventually flips to rain. 
 

Yeah, 6z warmed for the 6th. Didn't bother to post it because it pi$$ed me off. Lol

In fact, the whole run sorta sucked.