February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said:

verbatim

 

 

The last storm we had during blocking a week out it was way up to our NW cutting and ended up fringing me to the south. I’m not worried at all yet. 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

HH GFS has the @psuhoffman Storm

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Wonderdog said:

What about the 2/16 time frame. GFS had this a few days ago, turned it into mostly rain, and with the 18z has brought it back trending colder. Is this a possible a time we should be watching in your opinion?

 

It’s possible but more iffy imo because the PV is still centered to our west as it drops and rotates under the block leading up to that event which opens the door to it amplifying too much and pulling north too far west. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen but I’m less sure of that. Any waves between Feb 19-23 it would be really hard for them to cut to our NW given the flow, assuming reality is anything close to what all the guidance (and history of blocking progression) suggests. That’s our first really high probability window imo. Before that we have shots but they are all flowed to some degree. 

[mitchnick]

38 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick?

 

On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already…

I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30.

[Heisy]

I broke the rules, because I'm such a rebel, and posted about 2/16 and 2/20 as big storm threats in next week's thread. Easier to check them out on Pivotal or TT around 9:30.

16th looks fun if the confluence sets up right.


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[winter_warlock]

46 minutes ago, Heisy said:

16th looks fun if the confluence sets up right.


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Andthe 16th. Is only 8 to 9 days out... not 14

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s possible but more iffy imo because the PV is still centered to our west as it drops and rotates under the block leading up to that event which opens the door to it amplifying too much and pulling north too far west. That doesn’t mean it won’t happen but I’m less sure of that. Any waves between Feb 19-23 it would be really hard for them to cut to our NW given the flow, assuming reality is anything close to what all the guidance (and history of blocking progression) suggests. That’s our first really high probability window imo. Before that we have shots but they are all flowed to some degree. 

Yes they are indeed flowed and we no how our flowed storms go...they have a risk if falling apart under 43 hours on Day 4. Know way to tell with those 

[winter_warlock]

11 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yes they are indeed flowed and we no how our flowed storms go...they have a risk if falling apart under 43 hours on Day 4. Know way to tell with those 

That 43 hours just keeps coming  up lol

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

That 43 hours just keeps coming  up lol

Lol There has been unusual ribbing of typos the last week or so...

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol There has been unusual ribbing of typos the last week or so...

 Yup. It happens.   Hell I make typos every day lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

 Yup. It happens.   Hell I make typos every day lol

Same--this ADD brain of mine likes to send first and ask questions later!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Same--this ADD brain of mine likes to send first and ask questions later!

  My ADD brain  does the same thing 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Alrighty then...

Fringed

[DarkSharkWX]

2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

AI buries us apparently? Where you at @mitchnick?

 

On a different note, keep in mind this deamplification trend may be starting for the Thursday and weekend storms next week already…

idk if i should post the map here... might as well lol

[Terpeast]

Op gfs setting up the block day 4-5 and builds the western ridge at day 9, things might start to get interesting after that. 

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Op gfs setting up the block day 4-5 and builds the western ridge at day 9, things might start to get interesting after that. 

I think after the wave around the 16th passes we have a solid week where any decent wave is a major threat. 

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think after the wave around the 16th passes we have a solid week where any decent wave is a major threat. 

Yessir!!!

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, DarkSharkWX said:

idk if i should post the map here... might as well lol

Yessss plzzz

[winter_warlock]

Well after seeing the models.. I can day with confidence  that even if we dont cash in on the tuesday storm.we have alot of chances next 2 weeks!!

[Ji]

One of the worst gfs runs Ive ever seen

[Imgoinhungry]

One of the worst gfs runs Ive ever seen

Dont worry too much. Gfs cant get 2 days out correct let alone next 10


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