Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,699
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Smaloda
    Newest Member
    Smaloda
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

Looks like Richmond is back in the game for Tuesday. I don’t believe in the GFS. Weenies in our thread would take it to dinner and sleep with it if they could. I’m leaning heavily on the euro here for Richmond. 

  • Haha 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 2/6/2025 at 10:39 AM, stormy said:

You are exactly right!!  IMO the AO is the most important winter factor to watch.

Here are 7 reasons why:  Feb. 1958 -2.40,  March 1960 -1.62,  March 1962 -2.84,  January 1966 -3.23,  February 1978 -3.01,  January 1996 -1.20, December 2009 -3.41.

I cannot detail beyond 1 month increments.  The latest at nearly 2.0. is impressive.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 Lmaoo nice to see but models cant even get tuesday right let alone 2 weeks out lol

Grain of salt no doubt.  But 2 LR GFS op runs the past 24hrs that spit out sick amounts of snow.  Just indicative of the high ceiling of potential in the pattern.  

  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_44.thumb.png.158a6593746de7a8fe0b78613051ea89.png

What about the 2/16 time frame. GFS had this a few days ago, turned it into mostly rain, and with the 18z has brought it back trending colder. Is this a possible a time we should be watching in your opinion?

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I still think the greatest potential with this pattern exists around the 20th as the block fully retrogrades and weakens. just drool worthy synoptics with the TPV in SE Canada, west based -NAO ridging, and a vort showing up in the Rockies

gfs-ens_z500_vort_namer_44.thumb.png.158a6593746de7a8fe0b78613051ea89.png

The PSUHoffman-Brooklynwx Storm!  I'll let them decide who should be referenced first! :D

  • Like 1
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like that wave off the Pacific northwest coast gets a little more separated in the latest run?  Allowing for what looks like a more north-northwest flow out of Canada?

Exactly, I’m extrapolating, but it also depends what happens with the tpv, does it head farther E or meander and shift W which would change the trough axis. Things trended better for that 16-17 wave today though regardless. Both time frames are on the table (16-17th and somewhere around 20-21st)


.
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Heisy said:


Exactly, I’m extrapolating, but it also depends what happens with the tpv, does it head farther E or meander and shift W which would change the trough axis. Things trended better for that 16-17 wave today though regardless. Both time frames are on the table (16-17th and somewhere around 20-21st)


.

Yeah I think I see the same thing you're showing and describing.  I like the orientation of the later TPV somehow (the 18Z one), seems like it allows for colder air to establish maybe, for something to run into?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Some significant changes end of euro run which could bode well for the 16-17th wave

25b81475d863e1bfb25a382f389773fa.gif


.

Now this is a case that might work against a short term north trend, because as the block gets established, it'll flex and press everything south. It's still not a great hit for mby, but it's getting close. 50-70 miles isn't much at this lead time.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I cannot wait till the line of threads each named PSU storm 1, 2, and so on come Feb 20th

If we get multiple 6”+ snows out of “my pattern”  I’m retiring from ever making a long range prediction again and walking off like John Elway. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 3
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...