February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Like moth to a flame 

I wasn’t being derogatory I was agreeing with you. 

[eduggs]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is hard to get when people are hyper focused on their yard but the bitter truth is with our current level of technology and scientific understanding we don’t have the ability to differentiate between those two outcomes at that range. The difference is noise with minor changes that we can’t account for in initialization leading to those rather major differences that far out. 

Those images are actually two time period snapshots in succession in the 12z ECM run around Feb 20th. I just posted them to illustrate that what looks good on 288hr ensemble averaged anomaly chart could easily fail to result in a snowy outcome. In fact it's more likely than not. The shortwave details will determine the result. It sounds like you are saying kind of the same thing.

[psuhoffman]

IMO people are letting their frustrations over next week bleed into this thread. The guidance looks great for around Feb 20 which was my target all along. I knew snow before that while not impossible was going to be a battle. The mjo is heading towards the cold phases. Everything’s on track. If we had been in a torch pattern we would be excited by what we see coming. 

[Maestrobjwa]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t over react. One bad run doesn’t mean we’re doomed. I’ve never been overly impressed with the setup but even I know it’s close enough with enough lead time left not to lose interest. 

It's was more that trend of the last three eps runs that made me suspicious. You saw the QPF field shift south and get drier. Ot just feels like one of those things that always gets worse as you get closer from Day. Yeah I know it's technically too soon to give up, but how many times has a negative like that popped up in the shorter range and not gotten worse? Lol

[Ralph Wiggum]

41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Whoa, whoa...y'all are giving up on the pattern change already because of what, exactly?

I'm not writing it off. I'm just not feeling confident.  And the point of my post was that if we do get everything to line up in that pattern change and for some reason we still shit the bed, then as psu alluded to, back to the log book and that conversation nobody wants to have.

[Weather Will]

WB latest EPS extended.  Great potential in the upcoming weeks.

[Weather Will]

Biggest potential on the extended EPS looks like the 30 day period  between February 18 and March 18.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Biggest potential on the extended EPS looks like the 30 day period  between February 18 and March 18.

Can we just get our MECS next week please? This is becoming exhausting 

[Maestrobjwa]

15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Can we just get our MECS next week please? This is becoming exhausting 

Why is it exhausting? It's not like we've seen this pattern get can-kicked or anything (have we?). It's always been after next week, right?

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is it exhausting? It's not like we've seen this pattern get can-kicked or anything (have we?). It's always been after next week, right?

It’s been exhausting for me - perhaps it shouldn’t feel that way but it does

[psuhoffman]

53 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Those images are actually two time period snapshots in succession in the 12z ECM run around Feb 20th. I just posted them to illustrate that what looks good on 288hr ensemble averaged anomaly chart could easily fail to result in a snowy outcome. In fact it's more likely than not. The shortwave details will determine the result. It sounds like you are saying kind of the same thing.

My point is the same. The pattern is good. That puts is in the game. But we can’t tell exactly what the outcome of the waves will be at that range. Just that our chances are higher than normal one amplifies near the east coast with cold around given the larger pattern. 

[psuhoffman]

54 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

It's was more that trend of the last three eps runs that made me suspicious. You saw the QPF field shift south and get drier. Ot just feels like one of those things that always gets worse as you get closer from Day. Yeah I know it's technically too soon to give up, but how many times has a negative like that popped up in the shorter range and not gotten worse? Lol

Trends can reverse at any time. 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Biggest potential on the extended EPS looks like the 30 day period  between February 18 and March 18.

[psuhoffman]

I said Feb 20-March 15 and I Fng meant Feb 20-March 15. Chill out y’all. 

[WVclimo]

7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It’s been exhausting for me - perhaps it shouldn’t feel that way but it does

Maybe it’s because we have been tracking Tuesday’s storm around the clock for 7 days, since we thought it was a Wednesday event.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said Feb 20-March 15 and I Fng meant Feb 20-March 15. Chill out y’all. 

Yeah I don't get the panic over that. I somewhat understand this Tues-Wed, but goodness gracious y'all!

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I don't get the panic over that. I somewhat understand this Tues-Wed, but goodness gracious y'all!

People are down about this week and don’t see an immediate threat to turn too and so they vent. 

[wasnow215]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm not writing it off. I'm just not feeling confident.  And the point of my post was that if we do get everything to line up in that pattern change and for some reason we still shit the bed, then as psu alluded to, back to the log book and that conversation nobody wants to have.

"Feelings, nothing more than feelings trying to forget my feelings of Snowwwwwwww. Feelings ...Whoaaaa, whoa whoa whoa feelings....." LOL-cmon man! You're an Eagles fan! Let's go!!

[wasnow215]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

People are down about this week and don’t see an immediate threat to turn too and so they vent. 

Man I'm excited for 2/20 on-even if we get some scraps down here in Richmond next week that won't change the possibility of the great pattern after 2/20!

 

[SnowenOutThere]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I said Feb 20-March 15 and I Fng meant Feb 20-March 15. Chill out y’all. 

I cannot wait till the line of threads each named PSU storm 1, 2, and so on come Feb 20th

[NorthArlington101]

GFS gonna cut the Thursday storm to Quebec

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS gonna cut the Thursday storm to Quebec

Oh Canada. 

[Heisy]

Woof?

Tpv sitting near us going to be hard to cut that…





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[Heisy]

Definitely closer this run… more like the Ai




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[Heisy]

Sorry big hit N of MD line, but close enough to track

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

Yea big hit this run


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If you like ice in DC-balt corridor. But yeah, big boy storm there.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

If you like ice in DC-balt corridor. But yeah, big boy storm there.

verbatim

 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Why is it exhausting?

8 years of rug pulls.

[87storms]

The late week and next weekend systems look more fun with more NS phasing than the Tuesday southern stream wave.

[Heisy]

This is for Ji, end of the JMA today, it is happy hour so…



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