February Medium/Long Range Thread

[WhiteoutMD]

10 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's been a while since we've had a good flood.

<ducks for cover>

[Maestrobjwa]

Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward 

[Heisy]

20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….




.

[osfan24]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….




.

Only 13 more days and maybe something significant, lol. PSU seemed to nail this upcoming two week period as a long shot. Might get something small to moderate Tuesday but then it looks like a lot of rain to wash what little we get away in the week or so that follows.

[stormtracker]

37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward 

Surely you can't be serious....

 

Alright somebody hit that slow ball

[EastCoast NPZ]

40 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward 

Next week has heartbreak written all over it.

[frd]

39 minutes ago, Heisy said:

20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….




.

 

Jesus Christ what the hell do we have to do to lower heights in the East and SE.  Freakin nuts ! 

Do we have to locate the PV over Chicago? 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Surely you can't be serious....

 

Alright somebody hit that slow ball

That thing PSU and Heisy mentioned about the lead wave trending weaker? I'm telling you man that is not the kind of trend that I expect to reverse itself at this range. And that eps gif someone shared earlier shows 3 runs in a row of that precip shield getting weaker and south. Now if it reverses I'll happily be wrong. But until then I'm already halfway off of this one.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Next week has heartbreak written all over it.

Yep--that's why emotionally I'm kinda out on it. I can see this thing trending weaker and weaker/washed out. Better to lower expectations

[frd]

31 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Only 13 more days and maybe something significant, lol. PSU seemed to nail this upcoming two week period as a long shot. Might get something small to moderate Tuesday but then it looks like a lot of rain to wash what little we get away in the week or so that follows.

 

95 % of this will  be rain here. 

We just don't have any really cold air to work with, and lock in place. Very strange. 

Disclaimer, a miracle could happen, I love to be wrong. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Jesus Christ what the hell do we have to do to lower heights in the East and SE.  Freakin nuts ! 

Do we have to locate the PV over Chicago? 

 

 

When this period of epicness goes to turd we can look back into the logs of failure and ridicule to locate a cause.

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When this period of epicness goes to turd we can look back into the logs of failure and ridicule to locate a cause.

So how long until we announce last rites for the advertised epic pattern change?

[jnis]

5 minutes ago, frd said:

 

95 % of this will  be rain here. 

We just don't have any really cold air to work with, and lock in place. Very strange. 

Disclaimer, a miracle could happen, I love to be wrong. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

So IMBY I should expect roughly .09 of

frozen and 1.5” rain over the next 7 days 

[mitchnick]

AI has a threat next Saturday into Sunday with a lt/mod snow, highest north, before change/mix and then maybe back to snow? 

Technically, that's it on this run in addition to next week. It's a bit stingy on the cold but does have a storm in the midwest moving east after the end of the run on track for snow.

Both will keep changing, but it's something to track before the heat and humidity return! 

[frd]

5 minutes ago, jnis said:

So IMBY I should expect roughly .09 of

frozen and 1.5” rain over the next 7 days 

Generalized thoughts,  lack of cold yielding more wet versus white.   

[WEATHER53]

Should models blow another huge winter pattern then it’s simply time to create separate threads for them involving no discussion and labeled Fantasy Opportunities

The NHC gets the money and the talent for reasons I’m unsure of.  Maybe hurricanes are just simply more important .  The but…but…buts will fly now about how complicated it all is  for winter storms .  Heard that for 25 years.  The vast improvements that some of you offer has somehow past by me.  They show 0-30” every 6 hours like a cartoon . 
NHC can tell us that a TS 300 miles east of St Maarten will hit Cape Ciral as a Cat 3 in 7 days snd  nail it. Winter models are clueless if the low is going over Norfolk or Pittsburgh 2-3 days out. Time to put an end to it and not purchase nor endorse their cover  all bases guesswork 

[jnis]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Generalized thoughts,  lack of cold yielding more wet versus white.   

I got you. I’m fairly confident we (north of DC) will do better than 95% rain, but I certainly wouldn’t be shocked or disappointed if it turned out that way. We need the precipitation.

[Maestrobjwa]

27 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When this period of epicness goes to turd we can look back into the logs of failure and ridicule to locate a cause.

 

24 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

So how long until we announce last rites for the advertised epic pattern change?

Whoa, whoa...y'all are giving up on the pattern change already because of what, exactly?

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said:

It won’t 

I like when we’re on the same team! 

[Steve25]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

 

Whoa, whoa...y'all are giving up on the pattern change already because of what, exactly?

Because they’re weenies

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I like when we’re on the same team! 

Like moth to a flame 

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Should models blow another huge winter pattern then it’s simply time to create separate threads for them involving no discussion and labeled Fantasy Opportunities

The NHC gets the money and the talent for reasons I’m unsure of.  Maybe hurricanes are just simply more important .  The but…but…buts will fly now about how complicated it all is  for winter storms .  Heard that for 25 years.  The vast improvements that some of you offer has somehow past by me.  They show 0-30” every 6 hours like a cartoon . 
NHC can tell us that a TS 300 miles east of St Maarten will hit Cape Ciral as a Cat 3 in 7 days snd  nail it. Winter models are clueless if the low is going over Norfolk or Pittsburgh 2-3 days out. Time to put an end to it and not purchase nor endorse their cover  all bases guesswork 

The guidance still shows a -AO block with a PV displaced into Quebec and NF.  That’s a pattern that should yield us snow opportunities. Right?  We can’t lock onto a specific wave to focus on because it’s still too far away. But history says that should yield something. Doesn’t always. Sometimes a good pattern goes to waste.  Not every blocking regime leads to snow. Matter of fact lately less of them have been. We could discuss why that is. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The guidance still shows a -AO block with a PV displaced into Quebec and NF.  That’s a pattern that should yield us snow opportunities. Right?  We can’t lock onto a specific wave to focus on because it’s still too far away. But history says that should yield something. Doesn’t always. Sometimes a good pattern goes to waste.  Not every blocking regime leads to snow. Matter of fact lately less of them have been. We could discuss why that is. 

12z Gefs looks to end on a familiar pattern to this year, if not better.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….

Goody, maybe this is what we get:

OR

Many possibilities for sensible weather outcomes...

[RedSky]

39 minutes ago, jnis said:

So IMBY I should expect roughly .09 of

frozen and 1.5” rain over the next 7 days 

And maybe a raccoon and possibly an opossum if your lucky

[aldie 22]

46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When this period of epicness goes to turd we can look back into the logs of failure and ridicule to locate a cause.

That's a clown post bro

[mitchnick]

Most modeling is getting the Mjo wave into the right phases faster than just a day or 2 ago.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Eh, I'm starting to lose interest in next week. I'm coming back in here to see what we got afterward 

Don’t over react. One bad run doesn’t mean we’re doomed. I’ve never been overly impressed with the setup but even I know it’s close enough with enough lead time left not to lose interest. 

1 hour ago, Heisy said:

20th def has me intrigued. Block is formed, solid confluence, 50/50….




.

Welcome aboard. 

43 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

When this period of epicness goes to turd we can look back into the logs of failure and ridicule to locate a cause.

If we get a -3stdv block and the PV gets displaced into NF and it fails because we’re juts too warm and somehow with a PV that close the cold still can’t press soft enough for us…maybe we need to have the discussion no one wants to have again.  Not in here though. Some post analysis thread. But I’m not going there yet. 
 

I am not ready to say blocking doesn’t work anymore because that’s our only path to truly big storms and big years. If we ever want 40” snow years like 1987, 1996, 2003, 2010 we NEED that. These epo patterns we’ve been relying on to get snow are not going to replace our historically best way to get big snows. They can’t. 2014 was an anomaly. We can repeat that same pattern 10 times and it’s not going to yield that much snow again. That was a fluke. 

[jnis]

Just now, RedSky said:

And maybe a raccoon and possibly an opossum if your lucky

I get those critters in my yard all the time. I expect I’ll see them playing in the snow and rain before the end of the week.

 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Goody, maybe this is what we get:

OR

Many possibilities for sensible weather outcomes...

This is hard to get when people are hyper focused on their yard but the bitter truth is with our current level of technology and scientific understanding we don’t have the ability to differentiate between those two outcomes at that range. The difference is noise with minor changes that we can’t account for in initialization leading to those rather major differences that far out.