psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Load up the qpf and we take our chances. Can’t snow with no qpf right? It’s cold too. It’s above normal precip and below normal temps. I mean on a 40 day mean that’s all we can ask for and take our chances. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: I still hate seeing NE gettIng double and triple out amount. You do realize they get more snow than us. They are supposed to get more snow than us. If you compare yourself to New England you’re going to be upset like always. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 It’s gonna be a busy and sleep-deprived time! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 7 Author Share Posted February 7 There's a thread for the storm yall. Use this for anything after. Tired of moving shit 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You do realize they get more snow than us. They are supposed to get more snow than us. If you compare yourself to New England you’re going to be upset like always. True, and their “its due” index is about to explode. They have had it worse than us this winter and last winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, 87storms said: That Tuesday system seems to have eastern Pacific/Baja origins with a track on a beeline towards the mid-Atlantic. Definitely differing than these northern stream dominant systems we’ve been dealing with for years. Thats why I said the models will juice up over the next couple of days. I am actually way more worried about temps than precip. It will be juicy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: They always win in a Niña. Man some people are hilarious. Again for most of the last 5 years when we were in absolutely no hope for awful shit the blinds take your ball and go home patterns some of these clowns were trying to say it wasn’t that bad and it might snow and telling me I was a deb when I’d say no this is awful and winters headed towards a train wreck. Now we’re having a pretty good winter and things look good and those same people are like “but it’s only 6”, or “but it snows more in Boston” or “this one index isn’t perfect so it won’t snow”. I just can’t. It’s too much. 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 Just now, psuhoffman said: Man some people are hilarious. Again for most of the last 5 years when we were in absolutely no hope for awful shit the blinds take your ball and go home patterns some of these clowns were trying to say it wasn’t that bad and it might snow and telling me I was a deb when I’d say no this is awful and winters headed towards a train wreck. Now we’re having a pretty good winter and things look good and those same people are like “but it’s only 6”, or “but it snows more in Boston” or “this one index isn’t perfect so it won’t snow”. I just can’t. It’s too much. If you asked me for an O/U for February 2025 snow IMBY on December 1, I’d probably have said ~2.5”. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If you asked me for an O/U for February 2025 snow IMBY on December 1, I’d probably have said ~2.5”. Yea I dunno what bar people are holding this winter too. It’s not a Nino. We can in with a crazy -pdo. Yea it flopped to neutral which saved us probably but it’s not like we have the greatest background state to expect some 50” season. Just getting to near normal was a win imo. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! 14 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! 2 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! That’s an awesome project! I actually wish we put more into analog identification. Yea we get the generic hemispheric analogs from the guidance but that’s not always necessarily pertinent to what we care about, the chances of a specific storm in a specific area. The CIPS is pretty good once inside 100 hours. But this area feels neglected. Maybe AI is about to change that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! if you dont mind me asking, has 2003/1989 been popping up as well? i've been seeing a lot of those years on CPC analogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! Crazy analog pattern to try compare. I am old. Like really old. And there are maybe 3 times in my life that a February has looked like this. We are gonna get blitzed. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: if you dont mind me asking, has 2003/1989 been popping up as well? i've been seeing a lot of those years on CPC analogs I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s an awesome project! I actually wish we put more into analog identification. Yea we get the generic hemispheric analogs from the guidance but that’s not always necessarily pertinent to what we care about, the chances of a specific storm in a specific area. The CIPS is pretty good once inside 100 hours. But this area feels neglected. Maybe AI is about to change that. Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 35 minutes ago, Interstate said: I still hate seeing NE gettIng double and triple out amount. Coming from someone who lived there a couple years ago, the winters are nice but living there is not all it’s cracked up to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though Chuck would like to point out the flaws. Sure this could fail. Even the best patterns sometimes do. A few years back to make that point I posted the h5 from the weeks of our 3 biggest snowstorms and from 3 total fails and cut off the dates and no one could tell the difference. But…we’ve waited forever to get looks like these and inside of the crazy stupid unicorn day 25 extended nonsense that likes to tease and torment us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern. That is exactly what I was thinking we needed more of! Congrats on getting to work on that. Envious lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: @psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know! Wow nice bro!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I posted this once, and just wanted to reiterate: Dating back to 1957/1958, the minimum seasonal snow total at DCA for any season seeing 2 or more 6” snowstorms is 24”. The sample size is obviously not enormous. But following that pattern, if DCA records 6” on Tuesday, there very well could be 10+” more to come afterwards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 @Terpeast look at this 7 day mean temps and precip. Feb 18-26. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast look at this 7 day mean temps and precip. Feb 18-26. Yeah, that is nuts. Let’s hope it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast look at this 7 day mean temps and precip. Feb 18-26. Wow that's gonna be alot of fun and games!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 51 minutes ago, ravensrule said: They win generally. If you want more snow move North. I would rather get 20” less a winter than having to live there. Yeah, when we're 75 and sunny in April and Boston is socked in 3 days of fog with temps around 45, you appreciate it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, that is nuts. Let’s hope it holds. Amen brother!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: That is the anomaly, total precip. below for the WB EPS extended 46 day period. Holy crap!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 I posted in the 11th/12th thread 18z looks like 12z with a little more precip expanded north. Hard to be precise with the graphics. Additional snow threats on the AI run: 1) Saturday 2/15 Moderate event that may end as mix or rain after 80% snow 2) Wednesday 3/19 light event that looks to have potential for more. It was a bigger event on earlier runs 3) End of run 2/21 Big storm heading east with a nice trough. Could be big a day or 2 later but could be rain. EDIT: Follow-up storm next Thursday mainly rain after a little snow or frozen 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 18z Ukie ensembles thru 198hrs...Eps'ish 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 7 Share Posted February 7 2 hours ago, mitchnick said: 18z Ukie ensembles thru 198hrs...Eps'ish Niceeee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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