Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,698
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Scinestro
    Newest Member
    Scinestro
    Joined

February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

5 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I still hate seeing NE gettIng double and triple out amount. 

You do realize they get more snow than us. They are supposed to get more snow than us. If you compare yourself to New England you’re going to be upset like always. 

  • Like 2
  • 100% 1
  • clap 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You do realize they get more snow than us. They are supposed to get more snow than us. If you compare yourself to New England you’re going to be upset like always. 

True, and their “its due” index is about to explode. They have had it worse than us this winter and last winter. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, 87storms said:

That Tuesday system seems to have eastern Pacific/Baja origins with a track on a beeline towards the mid-Atlantic. Definitely differing than these northern stream dominant systems we’ve been dealing with for years.

Thats why I said the models will juice up over the next couple of days. I am actually way more worried about temps than precip. It will be juicy. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

They always win in a Niña. 

Man some people are hilarious. Again for most of the last 5 years when we were in absolutely no hope for awful shit the blinds take your ball and go home patterns some of these clowns were trying to say it wasn’t that bad and it might snow and telling me I was a deb when I’d say no this is awful and winters headed towards a train wreck. 
 

Now we’re having a pretty good winter and things look good and those same people are like “but it’s only 6”, or “but it snows more in Boston” or “this one index isn’t perfect so it won’t snow”. 
 

I just can’t. It’s too much. 

  • Like 2
  • Haha 3
  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Man some people are hilarious. Again for most of the last 5 years when we were in absolutely no hope for awful shit the blinds take your ball and go home patterns some of these clowns were trying to say it wasn’t that bad and it might snow and telling me I was a deb when I’d say no this is awful and winters headed towards a train wreck. 
 

Now we’re having a pretty good winter and things look good and those same people are like “but it’s only 6”, or “but it snows more in Boston” or “this one index isn’t perfect so it won’t snow”. 
 

I just can’t. It’s too much. 

If you asked me for an O/U for February 2025 snow IMBY on December 1, I’d probably have said ~2.5”.

  • Like 2
  • 100% 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If you asked me for an O/U for February 2025 snow IMBY on December 1, I’d probably have said ~2.5”.

Yea I dunno what bar people are holding this winter too. It’s not a Nino. We can in with a crazy -pdo. Yea it flopped to neutral which saved us probably but it’s not like we have the greatest background state to expect some 50” season. Just getting to near normal was a win imo. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!

That’s an awesome project!  I actually wish we put more into analog identification. Yea we get the generic hemispheric analogs from the guidance but that’s not always necessarily pertinent to what we care about, the chances of a specific storm in a specific area. The CIPS is pretty good once inside 100 hours. But this area feels neglected. Maybe AI is about to change that. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!

if you dont mind me asking, has 2003/1989 been popping up as well? i've been seeing a lot of those years on CPC analogs

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

@psuhoffman In my job, I’ve been working on a project where I get top analogs for each ensemble cluster. One date that keeps popping up at least 50% of the time is 2/5/10 in week 2 lead times. Just thought you might like to know!

Crazy analog pattern to try compare. I am old. Like really old. And there are maybe 3 times in my life that a February has looked like this. We are gonna get blitzed. 

  • Like 3
  • omg 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

if you dont mind me asking, has 2003/1989 been popping up as well? i've been seeing a lot of those years on CPC analogs

I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s an awesome project!  I actually wish we put more into analog identification. Yea we get the generic hemispheric analogs from the guidance but that’s not always necessarily pertinent to what we care about, the chances of a specific storm in a specific area. The CIPS is pretty good once inside 100 hours. But this area feels neglected. Maybe AI is about to change that. 

Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I still hate seeing NE gettIng double and triple out amount. 

Coming from someone who lived there a couple years ago, the winters are nice but living there is not all it’s cracked up to be.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

I see early march 2003 and feb 2014. But 1989 hasn’t popped up for me today. It might have in previous runs though 

Chuck would like to point out the flaws. Sure this could fail. Even the best patterns sometimes do. A few years back to make that point I posted the h5 from the weeks of our 3 biggest snowstorms and from 3 total fails and cut off the dates and no one could tell the difference. 

But…we’ve waited forever to get looks like these and inside of the crazy stupid unicorn day 25 extended nonsense that likes to tease and torment us. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, I’m really loving this work. The generic hemispheric analogs are out there, but I’ve been breaking them down into specific regions like North America only, and each region comes up with its own set of analogs that have even better correlations with the forecasted pattern.

That is exactly what I was thinking we needed more of!  Congrats on getting to work on that. Envious lol. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I posted this once, and just wanted to reiterate: 

Dating back to 1957/1958, the minimum seasonal snow total at DCA for any season seeing 2 or more 6” snowstorms is 24”.  

The sample size is obviously not enormous. But following that pattern, if DCA records 6” on Tuesday, there very well could be 10+” more to come afterwards. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

51 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

They win generally. If you want more snow move North. I would rather get 20” less a winter than having to live there. 

Yeah, when we're 75 and sunny in April and Boston is socked in 3 days of fog with temps around 45, you appreciate it.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

×
×
  • Create New...