February Medium/Long Range Thread

[winter_warlock]

I'm hoping 18z euro and euro AI show something at Least close to gfs

[Weather Will]

Wow!!!!! Zoom WB 18Z GFS. 15 Day run.  Ji hacked the NWS server!!!!

[North Balti Zen]

That is acceptable.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If it played out like that, which it wouldn’t, that would be actually highly annoying here with such bigger totals north. That was a great run of the GFS, though. So many chances. Storms also seem to be adjusting south a bit.

The bigger totals are going to be north next week. Bet my bank account on it. State college to Albany to Boston is going to get buried over the next 2+ weeks. But I still think we’re going to get more (maybe a lot more) than many of us would have guessed in a Niña February with SE ridge over us. 

[TSSN+]

5 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

I'm hoping 18z euro and euro AI show something at Least close to gfs

They won’t lol. Well maybe Ai. Euro won’t catch on yet probably. EPS has had plenty of members though with similar solutions. 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wow!!!!! Zoom WB 18Z GFS. 15 Day run.  Ji hacked the NWS server!!!!

Holy crap!!!

[nj2va]

15 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

If it played out like that, which it wouldn’t, that would be actually highly annoying here with such bigger totals north. That was a great run of the GFS, though. So many chances. Storms also seem to be adjusting south a bit.

This type of setup favors north of here to max out on snowfall totals in the east.  If you get 25" of snow who cares that Boston (which averages significantly more snow) gets 40".

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

They won’t lol. Well maybe Ai. Euro won’t catch on yet probably. EPS has had plenty of members though with similar solutions. 

The Euro/AI are probably less impressive on the 11th event somewhat because they're flatter with the event that occurs before it on Sunday.  Its not the whole story but I think its a big part of why.  I still lean towards Sunday being more GFSish though I am concerned about the AI solution being where its at, its honestly not botched an event inside 72 yet this winter

[SnowenOutThere]

Not sure when the last time a majority of the NWS has had frozen mentioned in it 

[psuhoffman]

30 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Lord they just keep going lol 

 

Makes more sense with the block. Remember models had that Jan 6 storm way north at day 10+ and we said that doesn’t make sense. It adjusted 

[midatlanticweather]

9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Wow!!!!! Zoom WB 18Z GFS. 15 Day run.  Ji hacked the NWS server!!!!

Too far north 

[H2O]

30 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

My kids will go to school 1 day next week if gfs verifies. Fairfax might just call it a year?

Why you gotta do that to @mattie g this early?

[H2O]

I want the SER to get squished just a little more.  

[DarkSharkWX]

[stormtracker]

Aiight, Euro time.  I just wish it'd get on board. 

[clskinsfan]

Damn. Went and drank whiskey for 2 hours and 6 pages showed up. Lets go!

[frd]

On 2/5/2025 at 4:39 PM, psuhoffman said:

@frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area?  Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more?   Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both?  

@psuhoffman my local area tends to do better in several scenarios. 

Intense and deep CAD where erosion of the airmass in minimal. Temps starts out in the lower 20's or teens before the snow arrives. 

Moderate events where by the time the dry slot arrives most of the snow has fallen already.   

Nino seasons with cold high pressure to my North or NW , active STJ, over-riding storms with a very cold pre airmass gives this area high end snow totals,  thinking 2003, 2009, 2010, to a degree 2016

Nina seasons with moderate to severe AO. 1996 

My area tends to do well with a moderate -AO  , and a moderate -NAO +PNA backdrop,  for huge snows the NAO and AO need to be pretty negative. 

I do not participate in snows that hit Rehoboth, De because I am too far inland.

I can benefit from severe Nor'easter Snowstorms if the low pressure area offshore stalls or does a loop. Thinking the late 1970's. 

I can do well with clippers if the clipper is robust. 

Overall I can score if temps cooperate in I-95 storms.    

I appreciate your posts and look forward to at least one lowlands SECS in the next 30 days. 

 

 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, frd said:

@psuhoffman my local area tends to do better in several scenarios. 

Intense and deep CAD where erosion of the airmass in minimal. Temps starts out in the lower 20's or teens before the snow arrives. 

Moderate events where by the time the dry slot arrives most of the snow has fallen already.   

Nino seasons with cold high pressure to my North or NW , active STJ, over-riding storms with a very cold pre airmass gives this area high end snow totals,  thinking 2003, 2009, 2010, to a degree 2016

Nina seasons with moderate to severe AO. 1996 

My area tends to do well with a moderate -AO  , and a moderate -NAO +PNA backdrop,  for huge snows the NAO and AO need to be pretty negative. 

I do not participate in snows that hit Rehoboth, De because I am too far inland.

I can benefit from severe Nor'easter Snowstorms if the low pressure area offshore stalls or does a loop. Thinking the late 1970's. 

I can do well with clippers if the clipper is robust. 

Overall I can score if temps cooperate in I-95 storms.    

I appreciate your posts and look forward to at least one lowlands SECS in the next 30 days. 

 

 

Lowlands SECS is the best!

[DarkSharkWX]

euro snowier

[stormtracker]

Thermals are nothing like the GFS...sfc freezing line is to the west of DC

[stormtracker]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

euro snowier

There we go.  Was looking for the snow maps.  Improvement

[stormtracker]

I'd bet on the Euro being more realistic.   If so, we still win

[clskinsfan]

42 minutes ago, yoda said:

n 09-10... I think went to school for like 3 whole days

In 09-10 I think I shoveled snow like 55 days. No joke. 

[stormtracker]

It's slightly colder too now that I can see the panels

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Aiight, Euro time.  I just wish it'd get on board. 

If you would finally fix that shitty bus of yours it probably would. 

[DarkSharkWX]

 

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'd bet on the Euro being more realistic.   If so, we still win

my guess is that it probably has better dynamics this run and a wider precip shield, we'll see soon ig

[stormtracker]

DC riding that line for a bit.  Would love to see the sounding.  At this range, I'll take it.

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

euro snowier

Hot damn. 

[clskinsfan]

Euro is ummm. NICE. 

Love how it split DC so DCA can report 4 inches. It is learning. 

[DarkSharkWX]

DC gets close but does not mix this run