February Medium/Long Range Thread

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

12-16?  We take

Hell no, i want 16.5”

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

FOLKS

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

 

Kinda less than I thought with that beatdown on the panels.  

[Weather Will]

Zoomed in...WB 18Z GFS

[osfan24]

More realistic output compared to last run. Seemed like it maybe moved out a little faster. Maybe a tad warmer as well. Guessing that combo cut down totals by several inches for most.

[Paleocene]

5 days away, but we'll be watching the sleet line on a setup like this. And tracking during the soup 

[ravensrule]

Just now, osfan24 said:

More realistic output compared to last run. Seemed like it maybe moved out a little faster. Maybe a tad warmer as well. Guessing that combo cut down totals by several inches for most.

Woe is us. 

[H2O]

Gimme a bit more souther to feel safer about not mixinger with sleeter and I can stay snowier

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, osfan24 said:

More realistic output compared to last run. Seemed like it maybe moved out a little faster. Maybe a tad warmer as well. Guessing that combo cut down totals by several inches for most.

I don't think it was really warmer per se.  Temps looked fine.  Perhaps faster moving but still quite the hit.

[Solution Man]

Bottom line here, “a triple dog dare by the GFS”

[stormtracker]

What's with the difference between various snow maps?  Like there was one panel we were getting just absolutely hammered

[Paleocene]

Next wave lining up for a hit, lol. classic weenie HH run

[Ji]

12-16?  We take

Why is no other model even close

[stormtracker]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Next wave lining up for a hit, lol. classic weenie HH run

Looks on the warm side...850s anyway

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Zoomed in...WB 18Z GFS

We abscond!

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

Why is no other model even close

Because the GFS is prob too cold.   Just being honest

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

5 days away, but we'll be watching the sleet line on a setup like this. And tracking during the soup 

Oh you mean the Superb Owl game!!

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

What's with the difference between various snow maps?  Like there was one panel we were getting just absolutely hammered

Some are 10-1 some Kuchy. And different outlets have different Kuchy output maybe dependent on what levels they have info for. Sometimes figuring out Kuchy can be tricky 

[stormtracker]

2nd wave kinds slides under us with the heaviest stuff.  32 line is on the fall line...850s up near MD line

[midatlanticweather]

DT had a good update today. He is still good at spotting things in the long range. I think he hits the challenges and why we may speak less snow as we head into next week. Maybe too pessimistic. 

 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Next wave lining up for a hit, lol. classic weenie HH run

An extra 2-3 on top with that 4th wave

[North Balti Zen]

Just caught up after five hours in a deposition...you all get gold stars. Every one of you. Except for that one new guy. 

[grhqofb5]

8 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

More realistic output compared to last run. Seemed like it maybe moved out a little faster. Maybe a tad warmer as well. Guessing that combo cut down totals by several inches for most.

You reading the same models as everyone else?

[psuhoffman]

Just now, midatlanticweather said:

DT had a good update today. He is still good at spotting things in the long range. I think he hits the challenges and why we may speak less snow as we head into next week. Maybe too pessimistic. 

 

He has that snowstorm checklist and this most definitely doesn’t fit the canonical mold. But sometime ya get lucky. But I remain more skeptical than I would be if we had a more normal setup for big snow here.  It’s still forever out. The last snow threat the rug pull happened at like 3 hours out!  This is still 120

[DDweatherman]

The gfs has about 3 days of winter precip out of 4 this run. Next week would be something out of a movie

[Solution Man]

Wave 5 a near miss, but shit I can’t see that far

[osfan24]

That late-week deal is so close to something more.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

We now have to look out for the @psuhoffman storm around the 20th! 

[Mikeymac5306]

5 hours ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Get that to slow down a little bit and we may break out the George Patton speech for 18Z

Men.

[WVclimo]

Monday-Friday