February Medium/Long Range Thread

[wxdude64]

17 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS 5 day snow mean at range is north...

All I'd like is a nice 3-4 inch snow across DCA/IAD and BWI 

[WEATHER53]

I’m realizing just now that those 20” outcomes never had more than a 3.3% chance of being realized because they were never 30 that change every 6 hours. 

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB EPS 5 day snow mean at range is north...

I was referring to the southern plains storm as depicted on the operational at 360hrs that JI posted, not the Eps.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Euro was ready to destroy when run ended

This thread went 2 hours without a post today.   First time in a while.

Good luck on your 360 hour storm.   Remember the one that was set up for next week?  We'd be like at hour 144 now.  How's that going?

ETA:  Today is the first time in weeks I didn't check the LR until now.

[bncho]

55 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Looks like central and southern VA and NC on track for another big one.

maybe since it's march they can't do it anymore

 

hopefully

[Ji]

This thread went 2 hours without a post today.   First time in a while.
Good luck on your 360 hour storm.   Remember the one that was set up for next week?  We'd be like at hour 144 now.  How's that going?
ETA:  Today is the first time in weeks I didn't check the LR until now.

There was never a threat till after March 6 unless you are taking about that Miller B for end of Feb

[Solution Man]

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This thread went 2 hours without a post today.   First time in a while.

Good luck on your 360 hour storm.   Remember the one that was set up for next week?  We'd be like at hour 144 now.  How's that going?

ETA:  Today is the first time in weeks I didn't check the LR until now.

We’d find a way to screw that up

[mitchnick]

12z AI actually has possible wet snow at the of of its run today from a southern system (no surprise there) that keeps the heaviest precip south, but temps a big problem down south and marginal, at best for us. Again, temps are marginal at best even in NVA & MD.

[WVclimo]

1 hour ago, wxdude64 said:

*Glances at his 8.00 of liquid and 19.7 inches of snow for Feb along with 2.71/10.4 for Jan and realizes just how much a difference weather is in the Mid-Atlantic forum....*

1.26” of liquid and 3.4” of snow here for February.  I’ve picked up about 8” of liquid since the end of August.

[dailylurker]

5 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

1.26” of liquid and 3.4” of snow here for February.

Good thing it's not July. Drought city here we come.

[EastCoast NPZ]

40 minutes ago, WVclimo said:

1.26” of liquid and 3.4” of snow here for February.  I’ve picked up about 8” of liquid since the end of August.

Yes. Bone dry here too since Jan.  We'll enter droughtville again as soon as it warms up.

[CAPE]

Just looking at the ensembles, and there is no real signal for a winter storm at our latitude or south through D15. Storms track to the north/northwest, followed by cold coming in behind. This makes sense given the advertised +AO/+NAO. With no NA help at all, perfect wave timing(probably a trailing wave) will likely be required to get snow here. Not impossible, but h5 and surface maps indicating cold over the eastern US on the means can be deceiving when it mostly comes in the wake of mild storms taking bad tracks.

[EastCoast NPZ]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just looking at the ensembles, and there is no real signal for a winter storm at our latitude or south through D15. Storms track to the north/northwest, followed by cold coming in behind. This make sense given the advertised +AO/+NAO. With no NA help at all, perfect wave timing(probably a trailing wave) will likely be required to get snow here. Not impossible, but h5 and surface maps indicating cold over the eastern US on the means can be deceiving when it mostly comes in the wake of mild storms taking bad tracks.

It's over.

Good riddance.

[CAPE]

46 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Good thing it's not July. Drought city here we come.

I am all for continued drought until maybe early June at this point. Maybe once in all the years I have lived here did my seasonal woodland wetland stay dry through Spring, requiring no larvicide treatments. I would love to have that situation again. Once leaf out happens and days are longer and hotter, the water table is dropping, so even a deluge in late Spring/early Summer won't result in water lying there.

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's over.

Good riddance.

Probably, but there is always a chance for a fluke, especially in March. The thing is, we probably see some -NAO action develop again, but not until late March/early April when it is completely effing useless, unless you want cold and damp at that point.

[Paleocene]

16 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just looking at the ensembles, and there is no real signal for a winter storm at our latitude or south through D15. Storms track to the north/northwest, followed by cold coming in behind. This make sense given the advertised +AO/+NAO. With no NA help at all, perfect wave timing(probably a trailing wave) will likely be required to get snow here. Not impossible, but h5 and surface maps indicating cold over the eastern US on the means can be deceiving when it mostly comes in the wake of mild storms taking bad tracks.

Good. Time to cook.

[Heisy]

Yeah I’m close to conceding, but the eps and pattern really don’t look horrible, just maybe not good enough.

Just one well timed wave…


.

[Allsnow]

Just now, Heisy said:

Yeah I’m close to conceding, but the eps and pattern really don’t look horrible, just maybe not good enough.

Just one well timed wave…


.

Noooooooooo

[clskinsfan]

44 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

It's over.

Good riddance.

Thats all I needed to see/hear/ Bring on the torch. 

[stormtracker]

Nobody listens to me.  Until they do. 

[frd]

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Just looking at the ensembles, and there is no real signal for a winter storm at our latitude or south through D15. Storms track to the north/northwest, followed by cold coming in behind. This makes sense given the advertised +AO/+NAO. With no NA help at all, perfect wave timing(probably a trailing wave) will likely be required to get snow here. Not impossible, but h5 and surface maps indicating cold over the eastern US on the means can be deceiving when it mostly comes in the wake of mild storms taking bad tracks.

 

@CAPE Congrats your area scored as one of the coldest compared to average this past two months on the planet. You might need to use the zoom feature, but its there. 

 

 

 

[Ji]

Yeah I’m close to conceding, but the eps and pattern really don’t look horrible, just maybe not good enough.

Just one well timed wave…


.

18z gfs says how about 2?

[Ji]

Nobody listens to me.  Until they do. 

We are going to have a snowy March

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

@CAPE Congrats your area scored as one of the coldest compared to average this past two months on the planet. You might need to use the zoom feature, but its there. 

 

 

 

It was definitely cold and with significant snow otg for much of Jan and being in an anti UHI area, and not close to either bay for moderation, pretty believable.

[CAPE]

Cold and snow is automatic here with cold air from Siberia flowing across the Sea of Japan. Copious snow from Dec through mid March. Love how they never salt the roads- just plow occasionally and deal with it. They drive with no issues.

 

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, CAPE said:

Cold and snow is automatic here with cold from Siberia flowing across the Sea of Japan. Copious snow from Dec through mid March. Love how they never salt the roads- just plow occasionally and deal with it. They drive with no issues.

 

Those areas get insane amounts of snow every year too. Something north of 250" in multiple spots and over 400" in the upslope portions in the northwest part of the country. It's wild 

[mitchnick]

22 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z gfs says how about 2?

Gfs likes a storm at the end of the run like the Euro.

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

We are going to have a snowy March

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

We may have some snow in March, but a snowy March is a stretch. Start with the fact that its March, and then the advertised +AO/NAO isn't at all helpful.

[CAPE]

Wow its pouring snow in Sapporo right now with huge stellar dendrites. Live vicariously.